Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Brittain33]

What are the stats for international % of growth in a state? I bet an unusually high percentage of migration to MN is international.

Minnesota's international migration is 2.6 per 1000, a little lower than the national average of 3.1 per 1000. It has net domestic outmigration of -1.2.

[Brittain33]

What are the stats for international % of growth in a state? I bet an unusually high percentage of migration to MN is international.

Minnesota's international migration is 2.6 per 1000, a little lower than the national average of 3.1 per 1000. It has net domestic outmigration of -1.2.

Huh, I thought it'd be higher with all the refugee resettlement.

It may be that MN isn't much of a destination for immigrants except for refugees.

[Brittain33]

Arizona has still not surpassed Massachusetts in official numbers, but probably has as of today.

Maine continues to be a smidge ahead of New Hampshire.

Pennsylvania should break the 13,000,000 barrier by the year 2050.

[Brittain33]

Pennsylvania should break the 13,000,000 barrier by the year 2050.

I somehow hate long-term demographic projections.

"should" = could/maybe/whatever

Because it's impossible to estimate future migration trends.

You can estimate future natural population developments (births minus deaths) to some extent though, because of past trends in fertility and mortality. But even that does not take into account possible future economic boom/bust periods, which could heavily increase or decrease them (like after 2007/08).

In 2000 for example (during the height of the economic boom), the Census Bureau projected that the US population in 2050 is likely around 450 Mio. people.

In their latest projections though from a few weeks ago, it will have only 395 Mio. anymore ...

Of course, you are absolutely correct. I was joking because Pennsylvania has been a very slow growth state for an extremely long period of time, and is so close to 13,000,000 without getting there.

That said, it is a state we should expect to do pretty well out of climate change.

[Brittain33]

Jim, thanks for posting this. I have a question because I'm missing something critical here.

The next two columns represent the change necessary to get an additional seat, and the estimated increase in population from 2010 to 2020.   For example, if Alabama were to gain an additional 9K it would stave off its loss of its 7th seat.  Since it is estimated to gain 165K, it is pretty clear that it is a coin flip as to whether it not it happens, because of changes in growth rates, errors in estimates, and what happens in other states.

If Alabama were to gain 9k as compared to what? Over its 2014 population by 2020, compared to what is predicted for 2010-2020 (165k?) Am I reading it correctly that Alabama simply has to increase by 9k in the next 6 years to hold its seat?

Put another way, Alabama would need to gain 174k over 2010-2020 to hold on to their 7th seat?

[Brittain33]

When Maryland gain a district?

According to Jim's table, it's trending very slightly downward.

[Brittain33]

AL = Loser; Montgomery and Birmingham shrinking
AZ = Winner; Area around Phoenix exploding
CA = Winner; Mexicans entering state
CO = Winner
FL = Winner; Cubans + Old people moving to state
GA = Winner; Atlanta growing
IL = Loser; R.I.P. Chicago
MA = Loser; Boston shrinking
MI = Loser; R.I.P. Detroit
MO = Loser; R.I.P. St. Louis
NV = Winner; Las Vegas exploding
NY = Loser; people getting the heck out
etc.

I'm not sure I understand this post, but Boston is growing in population faster than it has in decades.

[Brittain33]

I've made my maps using the 2016 Estimates Data.  Please let me know if there are any obvious errors. There may be a separate post analyzing trends in the future:

2010-2016 Percentage Change versus 2010 Census

Do annexations cause "Balance of X County" to drop? Looking at Dekalb, GA in particular.

[Brittain33]

I miss jimrtex's table of projected apportionment across multiple decades with three decimal places.

[Brittain33]

Any surprises affecting reapportionment?

[Brittain33]

It's been an hour and Jim hasn't posted his updated spreadsheet yet.

[Brittain33]

Are the only *certain* partisan impacts of the change AL -1R, RI -1D, WV -1R?

Is there any reasonable way Ohio actually eliminates another Dem? I have to imagine they are maxed out, the Trump surge in Ryan's district notwithstanding.

[Brittain33]

Interesting that a Puerto Rican in-migration can't move the needle further in Florida, but a hurricane-driven bust in Texas *could* cost the third seat if sizable enough.

[Brittain33]

Interesting that a Puerto Rican in-migration can't move the needle further in Florida, but a hurricane-driven bust in Texas *could* cost the third seat if sizable enough.

I believe these estimates are supposed to be from July, 2017. So they would not take into account the Hurricanes. Like Muon said, it will be interesting if the Puerto Rican hurricane diaspora's impact also on New York, along with Florida.

Yeah. Never mind, I misread Jim's spreadsheet as saying Florida needed 3m additional people to get a third seat, but obviously that can't be true.

[Brittain33]

Alabama has inflow?!

[Brittain33]

Technology will mitigate this but 2020 may be the last census in which the sun belt gains significantly from the north due to climate change and natural disasters.

This might be the dumbest thing i've read all year.

In what year do you predict that climate change and sea level rise will turn on Miami and the rest of south Florida? It is only a matter of time, and Miami Beach is already starting to have problems. The end will start not with a major disaster, but with a collapse in real estate when banks refuse to write mortgages on properties.

[Brittain33]

Random interesting fact: Youngstown, Ohio recorded a gain for the first time since the early days of the Baby Boom.

[Brittain33]

Imagine how physically tiny NV-01 is going to be in the next set of maps.

Is Las Vegas getting more densely populated?

[Brittain33]

How is MA losing population? I see new obnoxiously tacky looking condos go up every time I drive through Boston

It's funny, I can think of at least three specific neighborhoods near highways you're referring to unless it's a general observation:

• NorthPoint in Cambridge
• South End against I-93
• Chelsea on Rt. 1

Anyway, yeah, MA is the fastest-growing state in the northeast other than possibly Delaware.

[Brittain33]

Imagine how physically tiny NV-01 is going to be in the next set of maps.

Is Las Vegas getting more densely populated?

Clark County is the fastest-growing county in Nevada since 2010, and with 2.2 million people, contains nearly 3/4 of the state's population, and that percentage continues to increase.

Sure, but since NV-1 consists of fully built-out land and its population is going to have to go up, either the city has gotten more densely populated *or* NV-4 and NV-3 are going to shrink in size while NV-1 stays the same or gets a little bigger.

[Brittain33]

Doesn't NY have a redistricting commission for 2022?

[Brittain33]

Brooklyn, Queens, and Bronx all peaked in 2016 after many years of growth and have had small but significant declines since then. Immigration crackdown? I'm really surprised to see Brooklyn losing population.

[Brittain33]

Boston really sticks out here as following a different trend than other old Northern cities.  

Boston has a legup against its competition, even against some of the Southern Metros. Its already a bustling hub for 21st century industries, and its proximity to some of the most sought after colleges in the world mean more professionals and businesses(and therefore jobs) move to the bay state. Its also still rather open, unlike NYC. Neither the city nor the suburbs are that crowded, so people arent forced out by a lack of housing or jobs, for example.

While Boston and suburbs aren't as dense as NYC, there's certainly a housing crunch here which is driving people away with high housing costs. The suburbs aren't dense, but they are built out with their current sfh-on-large-lot zoning, so they may as well be. The city and neighboring cities (Cambridge, Somerville, Medford, Quincy) are throwing up tons of multi-family housing on brownfield lots which is helping population rise but it's not enough to keep up with demand. Boston is like San Francisco in that population is growing but it could grow even more if there was much more housing.

[Brittain33]

Brooklyn, Queens, and Bronx all peaked in 2016 after many years of growth and have had small but significant declines since then. Immigration crackdown? I'm really surprised to see Brooklyn losing population.

It is due to less reported foreign immigration. Whether that is due to a different way of asking the foreign migration question in the ACS (instead of in what year did you last live outside of Brooklyn, did you live in Brooklyn last year, or something like that), illegal immigrants being less likely to fill out the ACS in the age of Trump, or an actual halt in immigration is unclear. That probably won't be answered until after the 2020 Census.

This is true, but it's also probably because of shrinking household sizes amongst immigrant families. Communities of ~2 million people dropping from 4 to 3 people per household can't be offset by 100k new 2 person apartments. This almost certainly explains what's happening in LA county, as the peripheral immigrant communities have fewer children per household even as the urban core explodes.

Oh, that's interesting. I hadn't connected it to dropping birth rates but I can see how that's a new factor.

[Brittain33]

Just looking at the numbers, it looks like CA will lose the CD, not MN.

Do you or anyone else have updated projections?