Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Zaybay]

Are more people moving out of upstate NY, or NYC? I really can't think why you would want to move out of the latter, but anyway.

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/new-york-population/

It appears to be Upstate. NYC is still growing.

[Zaybay]

Are more people moving out of upstate NY, or NYC? I really can't think why you would want to move out of the latter, but anyway.

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/new-york-population/

It appears to be Upstate. NYC is still growing.

If Democrats have total control in 2021 as I imagine they will, I wonder if they will try to kill two Upstate seats.

Based on the fact that the Ds have a trifecta, and the population changes, whats most likely to happen is that Upstate loses 1 or 2 seats, with the possibility of Long Island losing one if Upstate holds. This would mean NYC and its surrounding area would hold much more substantial influence in whats left of Long Island and Upstate, to the point that losing two districts may make it much easier for the Ds to obtain near absolute control of the congressional delegation without the need for extreme gerrymandering and ugly districts.

[Zaybay]

Where are these thoughts of NY losing two seats coming from? It seems NY has been on track to lose 1 for 7 years or so. That seat itself has always been likely to be NY22/NY24  as Dems carve up Katko and protect Brindisi or another Dem. I mean of course Dems are going to get messy with the lines in Long Island, Staten Island, and the Hudson Valley, but that is to be expected.

With the addition of the 2018 census, the map has changed.

[Zaybay]

I heard something recently that the states of Virginia and Tennessee were shown by some form of new data to have a surprisingly large population drop, and then both states were now on track to lose a Congressional District each in 2020. Only 1 detail I am forgetting: was it a strange dream or was it something real? Can someone please tell me.

Dream, VA has been showing an average population growth that is higher than the nation, so its not losing a seat anytime soon.

TN, Im not sure about.

The list is already kinda finalized for what the state that can gain/lose are gonna be.

[Zaybay]

Boston really sticks out here as following a different trend than other old Northern cities. 

Boston has a legup against its competition, even against some of the Southern Metros. Its already a bustling hub for 21st century industries, and its proximity to some of the most sought after colleges in the world mean more professionals and businesses(and therefore jobs) move to the bay state. Its also still rather open, unlike NYC. Neither the city nor the suburbs are that crowded, so people arent forced out by a lack of housing or jobs, for example.

[Zaybay]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people, does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

Its looking extremely likely at this point.

[Zaybay]

Just looking at the numbers, it looks like CA will lose the CD, not MN.

[Zaybay]

Just looking at the numbers, it looks like CA will lose the CD, not MN.

Do you or anyone else have updated projections?

They should be coming out soon.

Just eyeballing the census numbers, it doesnt look like CA is growing fast enough to maintain its current district count.

[Zaybay]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people, does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

Its looking extremely likely at this point.

And one could make the argument that both seats should come at the expense of Upstate New York.

The math doesn’t add up for two upstate losses. The more likely result is that one seat upstate is lost along with one Long Island/East NYC seat.

[Zaybay]

DKE came out with its new reappointment prediction:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DKElections/status/1211721512106901504
As Cinyc points out, NY’s 26th seat is on the cusp of being lost, though this is better than the seat’s previous status as being lost.