Census population estimates 2011-2019 (user search)
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  Census population estimates 2011-2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 181791 times)
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,846


« on: December 30, 2019, 04:41:39 PM »

Considering the fact that The Establishment in NY hates AOC, NY-14 would probably be the obvious cut no?

The 2 biggest issues there are that it is a predominantly Hispanic majority-minority seat (and the Hispanic population has been growing, not shrinking) and if NY-14 were cut, AOC would simply run in whichever district overlapped the most. And I doubt any other incumbents really want to be paired in a primary against her. So they will probably try to find an incumbent that is about ready to retire anyway and just have them retire (there are a bunch in their 70s and even 80s). Jose Serrano is not running for re-election in NY-15 (neighboring Hispanic district).

Another thing to note - a side effect of all this is that Max Rose's NY-11 is going to have to pick up some significant extra population/area, which should be able to make it safe Democratic. In particular if (as they should) they give it some more heavily Dem parts of Brooklyn (Park Slope probably being the most obvious/easy) and give some of the more competitive/R parts to the majority-minority districts that are going to be needing more population.
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