Census population estimates 2011-2019 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:13:46 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Census population estimates 2011-2019 (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6
Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 180239 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: November 18, 2013, 08:18:51 AM »
« edited: December 30, 2013, 01:08:51 PM by Tender Branson »

New state population estimates will be released in ca. 1 month !

My prediction:

316.159.818
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2013, 10:40:29 AM »

TX will have the largest numerical growth once again: ca. 400-450K I guess.

It's hard to say which state will have the highest % growth though: ND again ? Or DC ? Or WY ? Or UT ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2013, 06:34:35 AM »

314,159,265

More or less.

Though I fear that may be an irrational answer.


The official Mid-2012 population was already 313,914,040

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html

You might change your prediction, because the US typically grows by 0.7% each year now.

Wink
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #3 on: November 28, 2013, 10:43:33 AM »


1.6% growth has not happened in the US since the 1970s ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2013, 09:56:23 AM »

There's a release date now:

Dec. 30

http://www.calendarwiz.com/calendars/popup.php?op=view&id=70683196&crd=cens1sample&
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2013, 02:21:10 AM »

The numbers are out on Monday.

A fact: Georgia will top 10 million for the first time.

A 50-50 chance: Florida will overtake New York already this year.

A possibility: North Carolina will overtake Michigan (certainly next year, if not this year).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2013, 02:43:07 AM »

My predictions for the Top 10 in terms of 01.07.2013 population:

01 - CA (38.39)
02 - TX (26.48)
03 - NY (19.65)
04 - FL (19.55)
05 - IL (12.90)
06 - PA (12.78]
07 - OH (11.55)
08 - GA (10.03)
09 - MI (9.90)
10 - NC (9.86)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2013, 10:05:11 AM »

The numbers are out:

01 - CA (38.333)
02 - TX (26.448)
03 - NY (19.651)
04 - FL (19.553)
05 - IL (12.882)
06 - PA (12.774]
07 - OH (11.571)
08 - GA (9.992) !!!
09 - MI (9.896)
10 - NC (9.848)

GA has less than 10 Mio. ?

WTF ?

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/state/totals/2013/tables/NST-EST2013-01.xls
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #8 on: December 30, 2013, 10:06:29 AM »

USA: 316.128.839
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2013, 10:11:19 AM »

Biggest numerical gains:

TX (387.000)
CA (333.000)
FL (232.000)
NC (100.000)
CO (79.000)
GA (77.000)
WA (76.000)
AZ (76.000)
NY (75.000)
VA (74.000)

Losses:

ME (-199)
WV (-2400)

USA (2.255.000)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2013, 10:16:10 AM »

Biggest % gains/losses (2012 -> 2013):

ND (+3.14)
DC (+2.06)
UT (+1.61)
CO (+1.52)
TX (+1.49)
NV (+1.30)
SD (+1.30)
FL (+1.20)
AZ (+1.15)
WA (+1.10)
SC (+1.09)

ME (-0.01)
WV (-0.13)

USA (0.72)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2013, 10:20:20 AM »

I nailed 5 of 10 states in my prediction and wasn't really that much off with my national prediction either ... Smiley
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #12 on: December 30, 2013, 10:44:57 AM »

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #13 on: December 30, 2013, 12:26:07 PM »

A couple more charts for easier viewing:

Sorted by numerical change



Sorted by % change

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2013, 12:40:35 PM »

Cumulative % change (Census 2010 -> Mid 2013):

7.6% ND
7.4% DC
5.2% TX
5.0% UT
4.8% CO
4.0% FL
3.8% SD
3.7% WA
3.7% AZ
3.5% AK
3.4% WY

Losses:

ME & RI (ME was stagnant - lost only 59 people in 3 years, RI lost 0.1%)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2013, 12:46:46 PM »

Cumulative numerical change (Census 2010 -> Mid 2013):

1.303.000 TX
1.079.000 CA
   752.000 FL
   313.000 NC
   305.000 GA
   273.000 NY
   259.000 VA
   247.000 WA
   239.000 CO
   235.000 AZ

7.383.000 USA
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2013, 12:52:08 PM »

A couple more charts for easier viewing:

Sorted by numerical change

(pic)


Over 17% over the growth in the US is in TX.

Yeah, the fact that TX has a relatively high birth rate (1.5% in 2012) and a low birth rate (0.7%) is helping.

TX grew by 1.5%, of which 0.8% came from a birth surplus and 0.7% from a migration surplus.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #17 on: December 30, 2013, 12:56:24 PM »

Question:

What about Puerto Rico ?

Migration to the mainland ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #18 on: December 30, 2013, 12:58:51 PM »

2012 to 2013 growth population:



MA really sticks out.  Also MN and NM.  Why would NM be lagging?

Over average growth: 279
Under average growth: 248
On par growth: 11

Better border enforcement (=> Mexicans staying in Mexico) ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #19 on: December 30, 2013, 01:09:17 PM »

Updated topic title.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #20 on: December 30, 2013, 01:13:45 PM »

Does anyone know if any states switched spots in population rankings?

UT passed KS over the last year and NE passed WV.

That's all.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #21 on: December 30, 2013, 01:23:04 PM »

Just checked the NM situation:

NM had a birth rate of 1.3% in 2012 and a death rate of 0.8% - a surplus of 0.5%

But the overall population growth was just 0.1%, which indicates a massive out-migration.

The Census Bureau decided to release the "components of change" separately this time, in February ... Tongue
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #22 on: December 30, 2013, 02:36:39 PM »

If Austria were a US state, where would it be in the ranking ?

12th in terms of overall population (8.502 Mio.)

11th in terms of numerical change (62.000)

Slightly above the US average in % terms (0.73%)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #23 on: December 31, 2013, 02:59:56 AM »

If Austria were a US state, where would it be in the ranking ?

12th in terms of overall population (8.502 Mio.)

11th in terms of numerical change (62.000)

Slightly above the US average in % terms (0.73%)

I'll do the same for Israel:

13th in terms of overall population (8.132 Mio.)

4th in terms of numerical change (147,000)

3rd in terms of percent change (1.8%)

Israel is similar to Utah, having the same high birth rate and low death rate. Plus a good share of immigration as well.

Here, births and deaths are about equal - with all of the growth coming from foreigners moving in.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #24 on: December 31, 2013, 06:51:53 AM »

Here's my comprehensive chart, based on the Census Bureau file yesterday (click right for big version):



I added the 4 "change" columns to the CB file and formatted it slightly.

In previous years, the CB always added the "change" columns themselves.

This year, they were extremely lazy ... Wink
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 12 queries.