Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2017 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 7 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.
AL -1
AZ +1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1
There are no changes since my projections last year. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, TX-39, CA-53, FL-29, and AZ-10 (#435).
The next five in line are MT-2, AL-7, MN-8, NY-36, and CA-54.
An alternate projection could use just the last two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth for the rest of the decade. That model gives an extra seat to MT at the expense of one from CA.
So basically, the sun belt is gaining population and the rust belt is losing it.
