Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Tintrlvr]

NY losing population? Sad!

Any reason why, though?

I would guess that, as in the past, the main cause is continued decline in upstate (both urban and rural) due to poor economic conditions and undesirable weather, along with stagnation of growth (or possibly even decline) in outer suburban NYC counties like Suffolk and Orange. NYC itself is still growing at a good clip relative to other large cities.

[Tintrlvr]

DC passed Detroit, which is still declining.  Detroit reportedly fell to 23 or 24, depending on which newspaper you believe.

#23, apparently. Boston also passed Detroit. Still ahead of Nashville with a gap big enough that Nashville probably won't pass Detroit next year (but obviously will in 2019).

[Tintrlvr]

A new study estimates that some 470.000 Puerto Ricans have left the island after the hurricane there, with 215.000 heading to Florida (and a sizeable amount to NY of course).

These numbers won't show up in the new release out soon, because the data will be for July 1, 2017 and the hurricane was after that.

But FL should get a significant bump for the 2018 estimates, probably some 350-500K growth (or more than 2%).

NY should be lifted out of stagnation next year, before falling back into stagnation/decline.

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/12/05/puerto-rico-immigration-hurricane-maria/

So, the question is, which New York-area county will grow faster - the Bronx or Hudson County, New Jersey?

[Tintrlvr]

I see that the growth of NYC has come to a grinding halt, with a 7,272 increase from 7-1-16 to 7-1-17 (with the formally relatively dynamic Brooklyn having lost 2,088, perhaps as the worst ratio of income to housing prices in the nation begins to bite). Every county in the state now has a substantially stagnant population. The NYC metro area as defined by Jimrtex drops from 17.92 seats to 17.88 seats as a projection to 2020.

"Brooklyn" being dynamic was always false. There are large areas of Brooklyn that are nothing like the stereotypes.

All of the population loss in going to be in poor areas in the east and southeast of Brooklyn that remain very inexpensive and certainly not dynamic. The expensive, dynamic parts of Brooklyn in the north and northeast will still have seen gains (perhaps slower ones, but probably not - new construction continues apace in the boom areas of Downtown Brooklyn, Williamsburg, etc. and is the main driver of population growth). The middle-class areas in the south and southwest will probably also have seen some gains, as elderly people living alone are replaced by recent immigrants and ultra-Orthodox Jews, in both cases, with children.

[Tintrlvr]

Charlotte, NC will probably pass Indianapolis next year:

Charlotte: 731,424 (census)/735,688 (est. base 2010) --> 842,051 (2016) --> 859,035 (2017)
Indianapolis: 820,445 (census)/820,443 (est. base 2010) --> 855,164 (2016) -->863,002 (2017)

Charlotte gained 16,984 (+2.02%) last year vs. Indianapolis's gain of just 7,838 (+0.92%).

Although we can't predict what will happen exactly, if both cities maintain their 16-17 growth rate:

Charlotte 2018: 876,662
Indianapolis 2018: 870,911

So unless something crazy happens, Indianapolis will most likely drop to #17 in for 2018.

On a different note, my hometown of Elkhart, IN (52,558 in 2017) started growing again after getting screwed by a housing shortage.

Also, Austin, TX's growth slowed dramatically, wow.

Other random facts that occurred last year:

Chicago gained about 12k
The unthinkable happened: Detroit grew
Salt Lake city Joined the 200k club
Denver hit 700k
Cincinnati is back over 300k
Akron grew

That's enough for now.

I think Detroit grew because Census back-upgraded its prior year estimates, as it's been known to do. Detroit's population actually fell from this year's 2017 to 2016 estimates.

Indianapolis fell behind Fort Worth this year to end up out of the top 15.

Which has quite a history in particular in connection with Detroit, as constant revisions upward to the estimates at the request of local government were proven to be completely unfounded when the population collapsed at the 2010 Census compared to the 2009 ACS estimates. 2020 will probably be similar, if less extreme, and show a continued substantial decline.

[Tintrlvr]

These yearly estimates don't seem to even account all of the regular housing. for example based on this article, Bloomingburg, NY must have about doubled in population, but the census bureau shows no change.

Yes, the estimates are notoriously bad at tracking new housing development, as well as abandonment of existing housing, especially when it's outside of historical patterns. They shouldn't really be taken all that seriously at a micro level as a result.

Edit: Although that development seems to be outside of Bloomingburg village proper when you look at Google Maps. Though the Census says Mamakating town, where it is located, has *lost* population, which seems deeply unlikely.

[Tintrlvr]

Naive question: which states (outside at-large) wouldn't redistrict if their house seat total was unaffected in 2020 ?

Every state is required to redistrict for OMOV. Even states like Maine will shuffle a few towns around the edges, as in 2010. It is deeply unlikely that any state would have population changes so uniform that no tweaks to the maps were required.