Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Nyvin]

Is there any set date when the county estimates come out?

[Nyvin]

Illinois losing 2 Congressional districts could put a damper on the ruthless gerrymander.

It goes that FL-29 is the last seat to be added, then AZ-10 second to last, etc, then IL-17 is the fifth to last.   So the bottom five are

431:  IL-17
432:  TX-39
433: CA-53
434: AZ-10
435: FL-29

So for Illinois to lose a seat, it would "currently" mean the other four either passed IL or all five dropped further down the list, replaced by other states.

[Nyvin]

Question:

The 2020 Census is done on April 1, 2020 (and slightly before and after that).

But the results + apportionment of CD's and EV's are only announced in December 2020.

So, are the new EV numbers already used for the 2020 Presidential election, or only for 2024 ?

The next apportionment comes out after the 2020 election, so it will first be used in the 2022 off-year election and the presidential election of 2024.

Interesting, thanks.

If they'd release the numbers 2 months earlier, they could already use the newly apportioned EV for the 2020 Presidential Election, instead of waiting 4 years.

But I guess calculating the results from the Census takes some time ...

I don't think that would work either,  the candidates need to know what district their primary will be in well in advance of the actual election.   

[Nyvin]

AL = Loser; Montgomery and Birmingham shrinking
AZ = Winner; Area around Phoenix exploding
CA = Winner; Mexicans entering state
CO = Winner
FL = Winner; Cubans + Old people moving to state
GA = Winner; Atlanta growing
IL = Loser; R.I.P. Chicago
MA = Loser; Boston shrinking
MI = Loser; R.I.P. Detroit
MO = Loser; R.I.P. St. Louis
NV = Winner; Las Vegas exploding
NY = Loser; people getting the heck out
etc.

In a lot of those cases it's actually the rural/small town area's decline that's causing them to be "losers".    NYC and Boston in particular are actually doing pretty good.   Upstate NY is where the population loss is happening.   

Same goes for Illinois,  Chicago itself might be losing people (very recently) but the downstate area is where the real loses are happening as well.

[Nyvin]

Montana gaining a second seat really could be a good outcome for democrats,  western Montana has some pretty liberal areas and is actually trending Democratic in some cases.   If the state is split in two that seat just might become competitive.  

[Nyvin]

1. TX - 25,145,561 --> 28,304,596; +12.56%
2. ND - 672,591 --> 755,393; +12.31%
3. UT - 2,763,885 --> 3,101,833; +12.23%
4. FL - 18,801,310 -->20,984,400; +11.61%
5. CO - 5,029,196 --> 5,607,154; +11.49%
6. NV - 2,700,551 --> 2,998,039; +11.02%
7. WA - 6,724,540 --> 7,405,743; +10.13%
8. AZ - 6,392,017 --> 7,016,270; +9.77%
9. ID   - 1,567,582 --> 1,716,943; +9.53%
10. SC - 4,625,364 --> 5,024,369; +8.63%
11. OR - 3,831,074 --> 4,142,776; +8.14%
12. NC - 9,535,483 --> 10,273,419; +7.74%
13. GA - 9,687,653 --> 10,429,379; +7.66%
14. DE - 897,934 --> 961,939; +7.13%
15. SD - 814,180 --> 869,666; +6.81%
16. MT - 989,415 --> 1,050,493; +6.17%
17. CA - 37,253,956 --> 39,536,653; +6.13%
18. VA - 8,001,024 --> 8,470,020; +5.86%
19. TN - 6,346,105 --> 6,715,984; +5.83%

50 States + DC - 308,745,538 --> 325,719,178; +5.50%



All the states growing faster than the US as a whole, by partisan lean.

12/19 Republican.

Showing partisan trend from 2012 to 2016 for those states would be more useful.

Places like Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Texas are Republican "now" (barely) but that's certainly not a guarantee for the future.

[Nyvin]

Has all the data been released yet?  I just see the top 10 figures they posted, not the excel sheets or maps they usually put out.

[Nyvin]

A lot of rural areas seem to be making a comeback,  the declines are nowhere near as widespread as previous years.   Some long-term declines remained, like in Appalachia, Mississippi Delta, or northern Maine, but elsewhere things got better.

The entire Chicago metro lost population,  including Dupage, Lake IL, and Lake IN.

Only Coos County in NH lost population, all others gained,  Carrol growing the fastest (weird!)

[Nyvin]

US Estimate for 2018 is 327,167,434 which is only 1.4 million above last years estimate, but they decreased the 2017 estimate by 600.000 creating a 2.0 million yoy increase.

Not surprising given the declining number of births and steady increase in deaths as boomers age.  8 states lost population--IL, NY, CN, WV, LA, MS, WY, AK maybe more if try to adjust for 2017 original estimates

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html

Didn't Hawaii also lose population?

[Nyvin]

Is there any set date for the 2018 county estimates?

[Nyvin]

New England as a whole is actually doing moderately well (aside from Connecticut).   Surprising to see Coos county actually return to growth (by 5 people).  

Here's a link to the tables:

https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-counties-total.html

[Nyvin]

Hamilton County had the highest numerical gain in Indiana (not surprised)

And RIP Illinois, New Jersey, and New York

New Jersey grew last year.

[Nyvin]

Hamilton County had the highest numerical gain in Indiana (not surprised)

And RIP Illinois, New Jersey, and New York

New Jersey grew last year.

It's lower than the original 2017 estimate. Please do not correct me.

I'll correct you if you're wrong.

[Nyvin]

Hamilton County had the highest numerical gain in Indiana (not surprised)

And RIP Illinois, New Jersey, and New York

I hate being corrected. I don't care if he's right.

New Jersey grew last year.

It's lower than the original 2017 estimate. Please do not correct me.

NJ's population got revised down, but it has yet to suffer negative population growth. So @Nyvin is right to correct you.

Edit:

The official numbers for NJ in the last 3 years are:

2016: 8,874,516
2017: 8,888,543
2018: 8,908,520

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html#par_textimage_2011805803

Wow, you've got to be kidding me.   Rather immature I'd say.

I don't care if you don't like it,  you don't get a free pass to spew nonsense to other people because your feelings get hurt.   If you state something wrong I'm going to correct you so that other people see the truth.   

Welcome to the real world.

[Nyvin]

So barring some sudden slowdown/decline, Oklahoma county will have enough people for it's own congressional district in 2020.    Any chance it gets one or will it get the Salt Lake county treatment?

[Nyvin]

What does it say about Louisiana?

Why is Louisiana suffering?

Poverty, poor quality of life, New Orleans being prone to bad weather, a sluggish economy, and a homicide rate ranking in the top 10 of the 50 states

Also thanks to Bobby Jindal's economy.

[Nyvin]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people,  does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

[Nyvin]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people, does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

Its looking extremely likely at this point.

And one could make the argument that both seats should come at the expense of Upstate New York.

How does that math work when NYC + LI + Westchester have been growing at half the rate of the country, if even that much? I would think that they can no longer support more than 15 districts.

NYC + Westchester + Rockland + Long Island is almost exactly 16 districts using 2018 estimates.   Considering Upstate NY is declining a lot faster that probably won't change much in the census.

Currently the NYC area has something around 17 districts,  but NY-17 doesn't have all of Westchester currently,  so it'll probably take the rest of that county and move a bit further north.

[Nyvin]

Wow, Washtenaw MI lost population last year

[Nyvin]

Florida might not gain it's second seat,  and Texas might not get it's third.

https://twitter.com/wiscott44/status/1243291452655808512

[Nyvin]

Sounds like apportionment will be announced on either the 27th or 28th this month

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1381378333561196545