Census population estimates 2011-2019
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 180293 times)
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #700 on: December 30, 2019, 03:11:44 PM »

DKE came out with its new reappointment prediction:

As Cinyc points out, NY’s 26th seat is on the cusp of being lost, though this is better than the seat’s previous status as being lost.
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Sol
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« Reply #701 on: December 30, 2019, 03:44:53 PM »

Since I have 2018 estimates for population, let's (wrongly) assume that losses in 2019 and 2020 are evenly distributed across the state and NY loses 2 districts. 19,530,000 / 25 seats = 781k per district

Nassau + Suffolk = 3.6 seats
Nassau + Suffolk + Queens = 6.5 seats which is pretty much the current map, no?
LI + NYC = 14.3 seats - which is 1 seat overpopulated
LI + NYC + Westchester + Rockland = almost exactly 16 seats, again 1 seat overpopulated

Something's got to go in Brooklyn, Manhattan, or possibly the Bronx.



Considering the fact that The Establishment in NY hates AOC, NY-14 would probably be the obvious cut no?
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cinyc
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« Reply #702 on: December 30, 2019, 03:57:41 PM »

DKE came out with its new reappointment prediction:

As Cinyc points out, NY’s 26th seat is on the cusp of being lost, though this is better than the seat’s previous status as being lost.

New York's problem is that its rate of growth keeps on dropping like a rock. It's almost in a linear nosedive at this point:


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cinyc
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« Reply #703 on: December 30, 2019, 04:29:15 PM »

Maps of the relative state change in population vs the nationwide average (a.k.a. the bear). Red = you beat the bear and may gain a seat or two in redistricting. Blue = you lose to the bear and the bear may eat you and one or more of your seats.

All you really need to do to avoid the bear is outrun your peers, though, not necessarily the bear.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #704 on: December 30, 2019, 04:30:43 PM »

Hahaha, the Census Bureau has just released the projected New Year population, but using the old unrevised numbers.

Major fail !

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/new-years-2020.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #705 on: December 30, 2019, 04:36:27 PM »

Maps of the relative state change in population vs the nationwide average (a.k.a. the bear). Red = you beat the bear and may gain a seat or two in redistricting. Blue = you lose to the bear and the bear may eat you and one or more of your seats.

All you really need to do to avoid the bear is outrun your peers, though, not necessarily the bear.



VA is interesting.

They used to grow faster than the US, but not any longer.

Why is that ?

Are they going the way of CA with skyrocketing property/rent prices that are keeping Americans out of the state (immigrants are still moving there) ?
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« Reply #706 on: December 30, 2019, 04:41:39 PM »

Considering the fact that The Establishment in NY hates AOC, NY-14 would probably be the obvious cut no?

The 2 biggest issues there are that it is a predominantly Hispanic majority-minority seat (and the Hispanic population has been growing, not shrinking) and if NY-14 were cut, AOC would simply run in whichever district overlapped the most. And I doubt any other incumbents really want to be paired in a primary against her. So they will probably try to find an incumbent that is about ready to retire anyway and just have them retire (there are a bunch in their 70s and even 80s). Jose Serrano is not running for re-election in NY-15 (neighboring Hispanic district).

Another thing to note - a side effect of all this is that Max Rose's NY-11 is going to have to pick up some significant extra population/area, which should be able to make it safe Democratic. In particular if (as they should) they give it some more heavily Dem parts of Brooklyn (Park Slope probably being the most obvious/easy) and give some of the more competitive/R parts to the majority-minority districts that are going to be needing more population.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #707 on: December 30, 2019, 04:47:32 PM »

Maps of the relative state change in population vs the nationwide average (a.k.a. the bear). Red = you beat the bear and may gain a seat or two in redistricting. Blue = you lose to the bear and the bear may eat you and one or more of your seats.

All you really need to do to avoid the bear is outrun your peers, though, not necessarily the bear.



VA is interesting.

They used to grow faster than the US, but not any longer.

Why is that ?

Are they going the way of CA with skyrocketing property/rent prices that are keeping Americans out of the state (immigrants are still moving there) ?

IN is the exact opposite:

It used to grow slower than the US, but now faster.

Why is that ?

Looking at the numbers, IN had a big international migration surplus of +15.000 last year.

Does IN have a lot of military stationed abroad who returned home ?

Because:

Quote
Net international migration for the United States includes the international migration of both native and foreign-born populations.  Specifically, it includes: (a) the net international migration of the foreign born, (b) the net migration between the United States and Puerto Rico, (c) the net migration of natives to and from the United States, and (d) the net movement of the Armed Forces population between the United States and overseas.  Net international migration for Puerto Rico includes the migration of native and foreign-born populations between the United States and Puerto Rico.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #708 on: December 30, 2019, 04:48:23 PM »

People are leaving NY, IL, NJ.

It has been happening since the 1990s, in a sense.
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cinyc
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« Reply #709 on: December 30, 2019, 04:51:09 PM »

VA is interesting.

They used to grow faster than the US, but not any longer.

Why is that ?

Are they going the way of CA with skyrocketing property/rent prices that are keeping Americans out of the state (immigrants are still moving there) ?

DC's growth rate has been trending downwards, too (though it's still net positive compared to the US). It's probably due to the size of the government workforce in the age of Trump.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #710 on: December 30, 2019, 04:52:11 PM »

Considering the fact that The Establishment in NY hates AOC, NY-14 would probably be the obvious cut no?

The 2 biggest issues there are that it is a predominantly Hispanic majority-minority seat (and the Hispanic population has been growing, not shrinking) and if NY-14 were cut, AOC would simply run in whichever district overlapped the most. And I doubt any other incumbents really want to be paired in a primary against her. So they will probably try to find an incumbent that is about ready to retire anyway and just have them retire (there are a bunch in their 70s and even 80s). Jose Serrano is not running for re-election in NY-15 (neighboring Hispanic district).

Another thing to note - a side effect of all this is that Max Rose's NY-11 is going to have to pick up some significant extra population/area, which should be able to make it safe Democratic. In particular if (as they should) they give it some more heavily Dem parts of Brooklyn (Park Slope probably being the most obvious/easy) and give some of the more competitive/R parts to the majority-minority districts that are going to be needing more population.

The easiest path is for Nadler to retire or to have a fair fight with Carolyn Maloney. It feels unlikely they’d be pitted against each other.

The Harlem district isn’t really an African-American district any more.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #711 on: December 30, 2019, 06:27:15 PM »

Maps of the relative state change in population vs the nationwide average (a.k.a. the bear). Red = you beat the bear and may gain a seat or two in redistricting. Blue = you lose to the bear and the bear may eat you and one or more of your seats.

All you really need to do to avoid the bear is outrun your peers, though, not necessarily the bear.



VA is interesting.

They used to grow faster than the US, but not any longer.

Why is that ?

Are they going the way of CA with skyrocketing property/rent prices that are keeping Americans out of the state (immigrants are still moving there) ?

IN is the exact opposite:

It used to grow slower than the US, but now faster.

Why is that ?

Looking at the numbers, IN had a big international migration surplus of +15.000 last year.

Does IN have a lot of military stationed abroad who returned home ?

Because:

Quote
Net international migration for the United States includes the international migration of both native and foreign-born populations.  Specifically, it includes: (a) the net international migration of the foreign born, (b) the net migration between the United States and Puerto Rico, (c) the net migration of natives to and from the United States, and (d) the net movement of the Armed Forces population between the United States and overseas.  Net international migration for Puerto Rico includes the migration of native and foreign-born populations between the United States and Puerto Rico.

Could also be immigrants moving to some of the state's manufacturing centers for work. Could also be the Indianapolis suburbs. Guess we will see what parts grew when county estimates come out in March.
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cinyc
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« Reply #712 on: December 30, 2019, 08:03:33 PM »
« Edited: December 30, 2019, 09:41:22 PM by cinyc »

Could also be immigrants moving to some of the state's manufacturing centers for work. Could also be the Indianapolis suburbs. Guess we will see what parts grew when county estimates come out in March.

My images are currently caught up in Gallery hold purgatory, but yes - a lot of the Indiana population gain so far this decade (up to 2018 - the latest data available) has been centered in Indianapolis and its suburbs.

Edited to add: Indiana Numerical Change Map:


Indiana Percentage Change Map:
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« Reply #713 on: December 30, 2019, 08:43:07 PM »


Sometimes, you eat the bear, and sometimes, well, the bear, he eats you.

(copyright Universal Pictures, source indiewire)

Really surprised at VA being below average considering the Amazon HQ2 decision in late 2018. Of course, it could be statistical noise - @cinyc do you have at hand the VA growth estimates and the national estimates?

I'm also kinda surprised at the low growth in the last decade in Alabama. I'd love to see a county-level breakdown there. I was under the impression that Madison/Huntsville is exploding and, although I guess the Recession was tough on Birmingham, when I visited I got the impression it was experiencing some growth. Maybe being so close to Atlanta is sucking away a lot of talent.

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cinyc
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« Reply #714 on: December 30, 2019, 08:52:10 PM »
« Edited: December 30, 2019, 09:00:01 PM by cinyc »

Really surprised at VA being below average considering the Amazon HQ2 decision in late 2018. Of course, it could be statistical noise - @cinyc do you have at hand the VA growth estimates and the national estimates?

I'm also kinda surprised at the low growth in the last decade in Alabama. I'd love to see a county-level breakdown there. I was under the impression that Madison/Huntsville is exploding and, although I guess the Recession was tough on Birmingham, when I visited I got the impression it was experiencing some growth. Maybe being so close to Atlanta is sucking away a lot of talent.



Here's NoVa (DC TV market) vs Rest of VA - as of the 2010-18 County Estimates. These will likely be backwards revised downwards in '19, as the state data generally was:



Upstate vs. Downstate NY (Downstate = NYC + LI + Westchester/Rockland/Putnam/Orange):



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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #715 on: December 30, 2019, 11:09:15 PM »

Maps of the relative state change in population vs the nationwide average (a.k.a. the bear). Red = you beat the bear and may gain a seat or two in redistricting. Blue = you lose to the bear and the bear may eat you and one or more of your seats.

All you really need to do to avoid the bear is outrun your peers, though, not necessarily the bear.



VA is interesting.

They used to grow faster than the US, but not any longer.

Why is that ?

Are they going the way of CA with skyrocketing property/rent prices that are keeping Americans out of the state (immigrants are still moving there) ?

It's definitely not the home prices.  There is still a ton of development in Northern Virginia (the expensive region).  I drive through Loudoun county often and there are huge developments that keep going up.  Even though the prices in NoVa are expensive they are relatively cheap compared to other huge metro areas like SF and NY and there are a lot of people that make similar salaries to those markets.  It's Southwest Virginia, which is shrinking rapidly, that's skewing the state average.  Most of the rest of the state is flat.  This is also why VA is trending blue so fast.  Depending how it's defined, NoVa is now about 35% of the statewide vote.  If things keep on this pace it could be closer to 40% in 10 years.
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cinyc
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« Reply #716 on: December 30, 2019, 11:47:37 PM »
« Edited: December 30, 2019, 11:54:56 PM by cinyc »

Election Data Services is out with their seat projection:

https://www.electiondataservices.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/NR_Appor19wTablesMaps.pdf

They give the 435th seat to Florida. NY keeps its 26th (#432 - so NY is -1). Minnesota and Alabama lose 1 each (#436 & 437). CA loses CA-53 (#439). MT-02 is #434. TX-39 is #433.

They also note this, which may be relevant to any analysis that tries to take into account the overseas military/foreign employee population (which they don't seem to have tried to do):

Quote from: Election Data Services
For 2020 the Census Bureau has changed the “residency rules” for counting the military by creating a distinction between personnel who are deployed overseas (usually for short periods of time) compared to those who are stationed or assigned overseas (frequently for longer periods of time). The Bureau will use DOD’s administrative records to count deployed personnel at their usual residence in the US for both apportionment and redistricting purposes (they will be embedded within the state’s resident population counts). On the other hand, personnel who are stationed or assigned overseas will be counted to their “home state of record” for apportionment purposes only and will show up as part of a state’s total “overseas count” when the Bureau releases the final and official apportionment data by December, 31, 2020. Military sources have told the Census Bureau that of all overseas military, approximately 15% are deployed personnel and 85% are stationed or assigned overseas.

Overall, their projection is:

States Gaining Districts (7)
Arizona +1 (from 9 to 10)
Colorado +1 (from 7 to 8)
Florida +2 (from 27 to 29)
Montana +1 (from At-large to 2)
North Carolina +1 (from 13 to 14)
Oregon +1 (from 5 to 6)
Texas +3 (from 36 to 39)

States Losing Districts (10)
Alabama -1 (from 7 to 6)
California -1 (from 53 to 52)
Illinois -1 (from 18 to 17)
Michigan -1 (from 14 to 13)
Minnesota -1 (from 8 to 7)
New York -1 (from 27 to 26)
Ohio -1 (from 16 to 15)
Pennsylvania -1 (from 18 to 17)
Rhode Island -1 (from 2 to 1)
West Virginia -1 (from 3 to 2)
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muon2
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« Reply #717 on: December 30, 2019, 11:52:24 PM »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2019 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 9 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AL -1
AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

These projections are unchanged from last year. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, FL-29, TX-39, NY-26, and MT-2 (#435).
The next five in line are AL-7, MN-8, CA-53, OH-16, and RI-2.

I also make an alternate projection based on just the prior two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth. It's more sensitive to recent growth trends, and matches the full decade projection.
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cinyc
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« Reply #718 on: December 31, 2019, 12:08:53 AM »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2019 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 9 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AL -1
AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

These projections are unchanged from last year. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, FL-29, TX-39, NY-26, and MT-2 (#435).
The next five in line are AL-7, MN-8, CA-53, OH-16, and RI-2.

I also make an alternate projection based on just the prior two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth. It's more sensitive to recent growth trends, and matches the full decade projection.

How close is AL from keeping its 7th seat? EDS says they'd need to pick up 10,072 unexpected residents to keep their seat - but I don't think that takes into account the overseas population. AL has more military than most states (2.23% of the 2010 overseas pop vs. 1.55% of the overall 2019 pop) - so I suspect it's closer than that.
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muon2
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« Reply #719 on: December 31, 2019, 12:31:34 AM »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2019 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 9 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AL -1
AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

These projections are unchanged from last year. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, FL-29, TX-39, NY-26, and MT-2 (#435).
The next five in line are AL-7, MN-8, CA-53, OH-16, and RI-2.

I also make an alternate projection based on just the prior two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth. It's more sensitive to recent growth trends, and matches the full decade projection.

How close is AL from keeping its 7th seat? EDS says they'd need to pick up 10,072 unexpected residents to keep their seat - but I don't think that takes into account the overseas population. AL has more military than most states (2.23% of the 2010 overseas pop vs. 1.55% of the overall 2019 pop) - so I suspect it's closer than that.

According to my spreadsheet it depends on what the projected growth rate will be in the last year of the decade. If I use my full decade projection AL needs about 16K to overtake MT. However, if I use the average of just the last two years of estimates, MT only needs about 5K to overtake NY and about 10K to overtake MT. The effect of the change in DoD classification probably makes it harder for AL to get #435.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #720 on: December 31, 2019, 10:35:10 AM »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2019 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 9 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AL -1
AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

These projections are unchanged from last year. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, FL-29, TX-39, NY-26, and MT-2 (#435).
The next five in line are AL-7, MN-8, CA-53, OH-16, and RI-2.

I also make an alternate projection based on just the prior two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth. It's more sensitive to recent growth trends, and matches the full decade projection.

How close is AL from keeping its 7th seat? EDS says they'd need to pick up 10,072 unexpected residents to keep their seat - but I don't think that takes into account the overseas population. AL has more military than most states (2.23% of the 2010 overseas pop vs. 1.55% of the overall 2019 pop) - so I suspect it's closer than that.

According to my spreadsheet it depends on what the projected growth rate will be in the last year of the decade. If I use my full decade projection AL needs about 16K to overtake MT. However, if I use the average of just the last two years of estimates, MT only needs about 5K to overtake NY and about 10K to overtake MT. The effect of the change in DoD classification probably makes it harder for AL to get #435.

There's also NY-26 which as covered elsewhere, is vulnerable to the states growth rate declining over the decade. Overall I would say the last two seats here, NY-26 and MT-02, could end up in any number of states. It could be those two, or it could have one or both swapped out for AL, MT, or CA.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #721 on: December 31, 2019, 03:05:31 PM »

California
Texas
Florida
New York
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Ohio
Georgia
North Carolina
Michigan
New Jersey
Virginia
Washington
Arizona
Massachusetts
Tennessee
Indiana
Missouri
Maryland
Wisconsin
Colorado
Minnesota
South Carolina
Alabama
Louisiana
Kentucky
Oregon
Oklahoma
Connecticut
Utah
Iowa
Nevada
Arkansas
Mississippi
Kansas
New Mexico
Nebraska
West Virginia
Idaho
Hawaii
New Hampshire
Maine
Montana
Rhode Island
Delaware
South Dakota
North Dakota
Alaska
Vermont
Wyoming
39,512,223
28,995,881
21,477,737
19,453,561
12,801,989
12,671,821
11,689,100
10,617,423
10,488,084
9,986,857
8,882,190
8,535,519
7,614,893
7,278,717
6,892,503
6,829,174
6,732,219
6,137,428
6,045,680
5,822,434
5,758,736
5,639,632
5,148,714
4,903,185
4,648,794
4,467,673
4,217,737
3,956,971
3,565,287
3,205,958
3,155,070
3,080,156
3,017,825
2,976,149
2,913,314
2,096,829
1,934,408
1,792,147
1,787,065
1,415,872
1,359,711
1,344,212
1,068,778
1,059,361
973,764
884,659
762,062
731,545
623,989
578,759
52.589
35.497
26.545
27.355
17.932
18.113
16.285
13.677
13.461
13.953
12.411
11.294
9.493
9.024
9.243
8.959
9.153
8.454
8.150
8.028
7.100
7.487
6.529
6.748
6.400
6.126
5.408
5.296
5.045
3.902
4.301
3.812
4.116
4.190
4.028
2.907
2.578
2.616
2.213
1.920
1.858
1.875
1.397
1.486
1.268
1.149
0.949
1.003
0.883
0.796
52.476
38.510
28.525
25.836
17.002
16.830
15.524
14.101
13.929
13.264
11.797
11.336
10.113
9.667
9.154
9.070
8.941
8.151
8.029
7.733
7.648
7.490
6.838
6.512
6.174
5.934
5.602
5.255
4.735
4.258
4.190
4.091
4.008
3.953
3.869
2.785
2.569
2.380
2.373
1.880
1.806
1.785
1.419
1.407
1.293
1.175
1.012
0.972
0.829
0.769
Goodbye 53rd
Good for gain of 3
Good for 2
27th is gone, 26th hanging on
18th is gone
18th is long gone
Will just slip blow the threshold, goodbye 16th

14th is guaranteed
14th is gone
12th could be lost in 2030
Falls short of 12th

10th is certain


Could save 9th in 2030


8th safe for now, but most likely gone in 2030
Guaranteed 8th
Highly likely loss of 8th

Farewell 7th


6th all but certain

5th could be lost in 2030







3rd safe for now
3rd is history
Possible 3rd in 2030



2nd likely
Loss of 2nd all but guaranteed

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heatcharger
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« Reply #722 on: January 01, 2020, 11:50:33 AM »

Really surprised at VA being below average considering the Amazon HQ2 decision in late 2018. Of course, it could be statistical noise - @cinyc do you have at hand the VA growth estimates and the national estimates?

Amazon hasn't really begun hiring for their HQ2 campus, and while they've ramped up hiring for the AWS offices, there hasn't been the seismic impact on population the full-fledged campus will have. The HQ2 location in Arlington isn't slated to be fully completed until Q1 2023 so it might be a while to see a noticeable effect.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #723 on: January 01, 2020, 11:57:10 AM »

Really surprised at VA being below average considering the Amazon HQ2 decision in late 2018. Of course, it could be statistical noise - @cinyc do you have at hand the VA growth estimates and the national estimates?

Amazon hasn't really begun hiring for their HQ2 campus, and while they've ramped up hiring for the AWS offices, there hasn't been the seismic impact on population the full-fledged campus will have. The HQ2 location in Arlington isn't slated to be fully completed until Q1 2023 so it might be a while to see a noticeable effect.

VA now cycles with federal spending/employment growth as a % of the total US economy.  That was unusually high during 2010-14 and has fallen dramatically since then as the rest of the economy took off.  IMO that's all you need to explain VA last decade.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #724 on: January 01, 2020, 12:02:12 PM »

One interesting aspect of these estimates is that ID-03 now looks like a serious possibility for 2031.  Idaho, like Montana, has a redistricting commission in their state constitution, and the recent growth has overwhelmingly been in Boise, meaning a hypothetical compact ID-03 should be competitive to even Lean Dem by that time.
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