Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Tender Branson]

I think that is the first time US growth has gone below 0.5% since the Census Bureau started tracking population estimates year to year.

Also there is a real chance now the US might not reach 330 million by time of the Census which is on April 1 2020 if the 2018-19 population growth rate is what occurs through to April 2020.

As for the estimates projected to April 1, 2020 - it will fall short of 330 million.

But the 2020 Census could count more people than the estimates show.

In the 2000 Census for example, 281 million people were counted but only 274 million were estimated at that time ...

[Tender Branson]

Here are the complete 2019 estimates:

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html

[Tender Branson]

Idaho was the fastest growing state between 2018-19 with +2.1%.

Followed by NV, AZ, UT, TX, SC, WA, CO, FL, NC and GA (all above 1%).

10 states lost population, with West Virginia having the biggest decline (-0.7%).

Followed by AK, IL, NY, HI, LA, CT, MS, VT and NJ.

Puerto Rico, after years of massive population losses, was stable last year (+340 people). Maybe a lot went back after going to FL after that Hurricane the year before (Puerto Rico continues to have a huge death surplus of 7.400).

[Nyvin]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people,  does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

[Tender Branson]

4 states had more deaths than births last year (WV, ME, NH and VT).

UT had the highest birth rate (15.3 per 100.000 people), NH the lowest (8.8 per 100.000).

If Puerto Rico were a state, it would have the lowest birth rate at 6.7

UT also had the lowest death rate at 5.5, while WV had the highest at 12.5

UT also had the highest natural growth rate [+9.8] while WV had the biggest natural decline (-2.6).

[Tender Branson]

2 states (NV and WV) had international migration losses, while the other 48 states + DC had gains resulting from international migrants.

FL, CA, TX, NY and MA had the largest immigration surpluses among those states.

[Zaybay]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people, does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

Its looking extremely likely at this point.

[Tender Branson]

Domestic migration patterns (2018-19):

23 states had a domestic migration gain from other states.

27 states + DC had a domestic migration loss from other states, meaning more people left for other states than came.

The biggest domestic gainers were FL, TX, AZ, NC, SC, GA, NV, WA, TN and CO - who all had a surplus of at least 30.000 people each.

The states with the biggest domestic losses to other states were CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, LA, MI, MD, CT and PA.

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau has now released a press statement as well:

2019 U.S. Population Estimates Continue to Show the Nation’s Growth Is Slowing

Natural Increase Drops Below 1 Million for the First Time in Decades Due to Fewer Births and More Deaths

DEC. 30, 2019 — According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s national and state population estimates released today, forty-two states and the District of Columbia had fewer births in 2019 than 2018, while eight states saw a birth increase. With fewer births in recent years and the number of deaths increasing, natural increase (or births minus deaths) has declined steadily over the past decade.

“While natural increase is the biggest contributor to the U.S. population increase, it has been slowing over the last five years,” said Dr. Sandra Johnson, a demographer/statistician in the Population Division of the Census Bureau. “Natural increase, or when the number of births is greater than the number of deaths, dropped below 1 million in 2019 for the first time in decades.”

The nation’s population was 328,239,523 in 2019, growing by 0.5% between 2018 and 2019, or 1,552,022 people. Annual growth peaked at 0.73% this decade in the period between 2014 and 2015. The growth between 2018 and 2019 is a continuation of a multiyear slowdown since that period.

The South, the largest of the four regions with a population of 125,580,448 in 2019, saw the largest numeric growth (1,011,015) and percentage growth (0.8%) between 2018 and 2019. This growth is driven mainly by natural increase (359,114) and net domestic migration (407,913), which is the movement of people from one area to another within the United States. The Northeast region, the smallest of the four regions with a population of 55,982,803 in 2019, saw population decrease for the first time this decade, declining by 63,817 or -0.1%. This decline was due to net domestic migration (-294,331), which offset population gains from natural increase (97,152) and net international migration (134,145), or the difference between the number of people moving into the country and out of the country.

Forty states and the District of Columbia saw population increases between 2018 and 2019. Ten states lost population between 2018 and 2019, four of which had losses over 10,000 people. The 10 states that lost population were New York (-76,790; -0.4%), Illinois (-51,250; -0.4%), West Virginia (-12,144; -0.7%), Louisiana (-10,896; -0.2%), Connecticut (-6,233; -0.2%), Mississippi (-4,871; -0.2%), Hawaii (-4,721; -0.3%), New Jersey (-3,835; 0.0%), Alaska (-3,594; -0.5%), and Vermont (-369  ; -0.1%).

Also released today were national- and state-level estimates of the components of population change, which include tables on births, deaths and migration.

Puerto Rico Population Estimates

Puerto Rico’s population increased by 340 people (0.0%) between 2018 and 2019 after several years of annual population decline. This slight increase is due to total net migration, which was positive for the first time in years (7,733) and large enough to offset the natural decrease (-7,393).

"Though migration between 2018 and 2019 was large enough to increase the population this year, Puerto Rico’s population remains below where it was at the start of the decade,” explained Johnson.

Additional Highlights:

Nationally, net international migration continues to decrease, falling to 595,348 between 2018 and 2019. Between 2010 and 2019, the year with the highest net international migration was 2016 at 1,046,709; however, since 2016, the net international migration has been gradually decreasing each year.

Between 2018 and 2019, natural increase was 956,674, reflecting 3,791,712 births and 2,835,038 deaths.

42 states and the District of Columbia had fewer births in 2019 than 2018.  Eight states saw increases in births - Washington (612), Utah (293), Nevada (232), Arizona (175), Idaho (166), Montana (66), Vermont (44), and Colorado (30).

Twenty-four states and the District of Columbia saw increases in their number of deaths compared to the previous year. Four states had more deaths than births, also called natural decrease: West Virginia (-4,679), Maine (-2,262), New Hampshire (-121) and Vermont (-53).

Twenty-seven states and the District of Columbia lost population through net domestic migration between 2018 and 2019, six of which had losses over 25,000, and three of which experienced losses greater than 100,000. The top states with net domestic migration loss were California (-203,414), New York (-180,649), Illinois (-104,986), New Jersey (-48,946), Massachusetts (-30,274) and Louisiana (-26,045).

Nine states had a population of over 10 million in 2019. Those states were California (39,512,223), Texas (28,995,881), Florida (21,477,737), New York (19,453,561), Pennsylvania (12,801,989), Illinois (12,671,821), Ohio (11,689,100), Georgia (10,617,423) and North Carolina (10,488,084).
 
During 2020, the Census Bureau will release estimates of the 2019 population for counties, cities and towns, and metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, as well as national, state and county population estimates by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin. Population estimates for Puerto Rico and its municipios by age and sex will be released as well. These estimates include counties and cities affected by the 2017 hurricane season. Vintage 2019 estimates will be the last official series of estimates released prior to the 2020 Census.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/popest-nation.html

[Suburbia]

Should NY cut taxes in 2020?

[Zaybay]

Just looking at the numbers, it looks like CA will lose the CD, not MN.

[Tender Branson]

If the growth of 2018-19 is projected to Census Day (x 0.75), 1 April 2020, about 329.5 million people should be counted in this operation. Plus around 0.5 million to 1 million military + dependents stationed overseas (who are also used to calculate EVs and CDs).

While the census count in 2010 matched the estimates, there was an overcount of 7 million people relative to the estimates in 2000.

[Brittain33]

Just looking at the numbers, it looks like CA will lose the CD, not MN.

Do you or anyone else have updated projections?

[Zaybay]

Just looking at the numbers, it looks like CA will lose the CD, not MN.

Do you or anyone else have updated projections?

They should be coming out soon.

Just eyeballing the census numbers, it doesnt look like CA is growing fast enough to maintain its current district count.

[Tender Branson]

citypopulation.de has already updated their US page with the new numbers:

http://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/states/admin/

If you click on the red arrow on the left of the US map, you can hover above the states to see growth rates since Census 2010.

[Starpaul20]

Like I did last year, I decided to see what a Wyoming Rule house size would look like with the new population estimates. The house membership would expand to 566 seats, an increase of 131 over its current size:

(States in red gain 1 seat, blue gains 2 seats, green gains 3 seats, yellow gains 4 seats, orange gains 5 or more and gray means no change)
Relative to last year, the house would increase 1 seat, with Arizona and Alabama gaining a seat each, and California losing one.

For comparison, here's what a Wyoming Rule house size looks like with the 2010 census results (547 seats):

[Gass3268]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people, does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

Its looking extremely likely at this point.

And one could make the argument that both seats should come at the expense of Upstate New York.

[Brittain33]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people, does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

Its looking extremely likely at this point.

And one could make the argument that both seats should come at the expense of Upstate New York.

How does that math work when NYC + LI + Westchester have been growing at half the rate of the country, if even that much? I would think that they can no longer support more than 15 districts.

[cinyc]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people, does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

Its looking extremely likely at this point.

And one could make the argument that both seats should come at the expense of Upstate New York.

How does that math work when NYC + LI + Westchester have been growing at half the rate of the country, if even that much? I would think that they can no longer support more than 15 districts.

It doesn’t.

[Oryxslayer]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people, does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

Its looking extremely likely at this point.

And one could make the argument that both seats should come at the expense of Upstate New York.

Well,it's not the city or her immediate suburbs behind the loss, that's been shown during the past counts. Last time I checked the mid-decade CD numbers, the NYC seats balanced each other out between those that had added pop and those that had shrunk. Maybe since the adjustment this year  that changed, but it's still mostly the more Appalachian/rust belt upstate behind the losses. Of course, forcing the second cut to come from upstate after she already lost one is a challenge. It's more likely Long Island will bear the loss (probably NY02) since she is also losing pop.

[Gass3268]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year.  

New York lost almost 77k people, does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

Its looking extremely likely at this point.

And one could make the argument that both seats should come at the expense of Upstate New York.

Well,it's not the city or her immediate suburbs behind the loss, that's been shown during the past counts. Last time I checked the mid-decade CD numbers, the NYC seats balanced each other out between those that had added pop and those that had shrunk. Maybe since the adjustment this year  that changed, but it's still mostly the more Appalachian/rust belt upstate behind the losses. Of course, forcing the second cut to come from upstate after she already lost one is a challenge. It's more likely Long Island will bear the loss (probably NY02) since she is also losing pop.

I poorly worded what I wanted to say. Should have been closer that NYC probably shouldn't lose a seat given it's actually grown this decade. Agree with you that Upstate and LI are were the loses will probably take place.

[Nyvin]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people, does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

Its looking extremely likely at this point.

And one could make the argument that both seats should come at the expense of Upstate New York.

How does that math work when NYC + LI + Westchester have been growing at half the rate of the country, if even that much? I would think that they can no longer support more than 15 districts.

NYC + Westchester + Rockland + Long Island is almost exactly 16 districts using 2018 estimates.   Considering Upstate NY is declining a lot faster that probably won't change much in the census.

Currently the NYC area has something around 17 districts,  but NY-17 doesn't have all of Westchester currently,  so it'll probably take the rest of that county and move a bit further north.

[Zaybay]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people, does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

Its looking extremely likely at this point.

And one could make the argument that both seats should come at the expense of Upstate New York.

The math doesn’t add up for two upstate losses. The more likely result is that one seat upstate is lost along with one Long Island/East NYC seat.

[Brittain33]

Since I have 2018 estimates for population, let's (wrongly) assume that losses in 2019 and 2020 are evenly distributed across the state and NY loses 2 districts. 19,530,000 / 25 seats = 781k per district

Nassau + Suffolk = 3.6 seats
Nassau + Suffolk + Queens = 6.5 seats which is pretty much the current map, no?
LI + NYC = 14.3 seats - which is 1 seat overpopulated
LI + NYC + Westchester + Rockland = almost exactly 16 seats, again 1 seat overpopulated

Something's got to go in Brooklyn, Manhattan, or possibly the Bronx.

[cinyc]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people, does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

Its looking extremely likely at this point.

And one could make the argument that both seats should come at the expense of Upstate New York.

The math doesn’t add up for two upstate losses. The more likely result is that one seat upstate is lost along with one Long Island/East NYC seat.

The math might not add up to 2 lost seats at all. NY-26 is literally on the bubble in many of the analyses I've seen.

I'd bet that it will lose 2, though.