Census population estimates 2011-2019
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 180251 times)
jimrtex
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« Reply #500 on: August 23, 2018, 04:35:10 AM »

Just for fun, this is what would happen if they non-retroactively reinstated the no states can lose a seat rule for 2020:



It increases the House size by 18.

Wouldn't this lead to extreme increases in the size of the House if repeated in the future?
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muon2
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« Reply #501 on: August 23, 2018, 04:11:34 PM »

Probably not so extreme as one thinks, and the House chamber could accommodate 600 based on discussions I had when visiting there 20 years ago.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #502 on: August 25, 2018, 01:36:14 AM »

Probably not so extreme as one thinks, and the House chamber could accommodate 600 based on discussions I had when visiting there 20 years ago.

Iowa has gone from 11 to 4, North Dakota from 3 to 1, and Vermont from 6 to 1.

In general the increase would be proportional to the rate of gain of the US minus the growth rate of the slowest growing (fastest declining) state. So perhaps 45 to 50 per decade.

If the proposed rule had first been applied in 2010, what would the size of the House been in 2010, and what would it be in 2020 if the procedure had been retained?
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muon2
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« Reply #503 on: August 25, 2018, 09:50:49 AM »

Probably not so extreme as one thinks, and the House chamber could accommodate 600 based on discussions I had when visiting there 20 years ago.

Iowa has gone from 11 to 4, North Dakota from 3 to 1, and Vermont from 6 to 1.

In general the increase would be proportional to the rate of gain of the US minus the growth rate of the slowest growing (fastest declining) state. So perhaps 45 to 50 per decade.

If the proposed rule had first been applied in 2010, what would the size of the House been in 2010, and what would it be in 2020 if the procedure had been retained?


We had a thread last May on this topic on another board where we went back to the 1929 decision to fix the size at 435. I made a series of maps based on the rule that the size was the minimum needed so that no state lost a seat.

1920: 435
1930: 537 +23.4% (the Great Migration to the northern cities fueled this increase)
1940: 586 +9.1%
1950: 642 +9.6% (the 1947 act included the provision that states that lost population could lose seats)
1960: 737 +14.8%
1970: 797 +8.1%
1980: 885 +11.0%
1990: 971 +9.7%
2000: 1068 +10.0%
2010: 1140 +6.7%

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Virginiá
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« Reply #504 on: October 01, 2018, 02:19:02 PM »

DailyKos post about changes in CDs:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/9/30/1799118/-Which-congressional-districts-are-growing-or-shrinking-the-fastest
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #505 on: October 25, 2018, 02:18:34 PM »

The release date is not yet in stone, but the national and state-level projections for 2018 will be out in a couple months. What do you guys think the US population will be?

My guess is 327,999,212
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Storr
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« Reply #506 on: October 25, 2018, 06:24:46 PM »

For reference, this is my state by state population projection:

CA   40402290
TX   29502646
FL   21811223
NY   20028164
PA   12844485
IL   12790817
OH   11704839
GA   10710330
NC   10553235
MI   09991966
NJ   09086699
VA   08647908
WA   07664128
AZ   07252945
MA   06978168
TN   06856211
IN   06736115
MO   06160797
MD   06157766
WI   05836522
CO   05826331
MN   05680037
SC   05175709
AL   04910634
LA   04741554
KY   04497752
OR   04261009
OK   03998861
CT   03593521
UT   03230019
IA   03183203
NV   03110826
AR   03037752
MS   02990168
KS   02935879
NM   02099018
NE   01955636
WV   01801766
ID   01773571
HI   01453042
NH   01352784
ME   01338769
MT   01073661
RI   01062178
DE   00986216
SD   00890706
ND   00786803
AK   00751002
VT   00622867
WY   00585213


Delaware is getting oh so close to 1,000,000!
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #507 on: October 31, 2018, 02:10:48 PM »

My predictions:

California will hit 40 million (only a few hundred k away)

Nevada will hit 3 million (already right there) and pass Arkansas to become the 32nd most populous state.

Utah will pass Iowa to become the 30th most populous state

Montana will pass Rhode Island to become the 43rd most populous state

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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #508 on: December 19, 2018, 11:44:21 AM »
« Edited: December 19, 2018, 11:56:00 AM by Barraco Clintez »

US Estimate for 2018 is 327,167,434 which is only 1.4 million above last years estimate, but they decreased the 2017 estimate by 600.000 creating a 2.0 million yoy increase.

Not surprising given the declining number of births and steady increase in deaths as boomers age.  8 states lost population--IL, NY, CN, WV, LA, MS, WY, AK maybe more if try to adjust for 2017 original estimates

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #509 on: December 19, 2018, 12:17:05 PM »

Nevada is listed in the press release as having the largest % increase yoy (along with Idaho)--2.1%, adding 62,000 people.  However, the 2017 estimate was reduced by 26,000 meaning the increase is actually only 36,000 above the original 2017 estimate.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #510 on: December 19, 2018, 12:51:25 PM »

US Estimate for 2018 is 327,167,434 which is only 1.4 million above last years estimate, but they decreased the 2017 estimate by 600.000 creating a 2.0 million yoy increase.

Not surprising given the declining number of births and steady increase in deaths as boomers age.  8 states lost population--IL, NY, CN, WV, LA, MS, WY, AK maybe more if try to adjust for 2017 original estimates

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html


Didn't Hawaii also lose population?
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #511 on: December 19, 2018, 01:06:02 PM »

US Estimate for 2018 is 327,167,434 which is only 1.4 million above last years estimate, but they decreased the 2017 estimate by 600.000 creating a 2.0 million yoy increase.

Not surprising given the declining number of births and steady increase in deaths as boomers age.  8 states lost population--IL, NY, CN, WV, LA, MS, WY, AK maybe more if try to adjust for 2017 original estimates

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html


Didn't Hawaii also lose population?

Yeah, put Hawaii on the list.  Kansas also lost population vs original 2017 estimate but with the tweak to 2017 it lost it last year and gained a little this year, subject to future tweaks.
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muon2
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« Reply #512 on: December 19, 2018, 01:13:26 PM »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2018 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 8 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

AL -1
AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

Compared to last year, CA loses one and MT gains one. That is what my model based on the two years from 2015-2017 projected, so it appears that that short-term trend has continued enough to influence the whole decade. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, FL-29, TX-39, NY-26, and MT-2 (#435).
The next five in line are CA53, AL-7, MN-8, OH-15, and VA-12.

The alternate projection based on just the prior two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth matches the full decade projection now.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
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« Reply #513 on: December 19, 2018, 01:19:41 PM »
« Edited: December 19, 2018, 03:04:36 PM by #KavanaughForPrison »

We ought to add 270 members to the US House.
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muon2
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« Reply #514 on: December 19, 2018, 01:49:33 PM »

Here's what the 2024 EV map would be like based on my 2020 projections with colors to indicate changes from this decade.

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Starpaul20
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« Reply #515 on: December 19, 2018, 01:57:42 PM »

Like I did last year, I decided to see what a Wyoming Rule house size would look like with the new population estimates. The house membership would expand to 565 seats, an increase of 130 over its current size:


(States in red gain 1 seat, blue gains 2 seats, green gains 3 seats, yellow gains 4 seats, orange gains 5 or more and gray means no change)
Relative to last year, the house would increase 4 seats, with California, Texas, Florida, Indiana and Utah(!!!) gaining a seat each, and New Jersey (%&*#&!!) losing one.

For comparison, here's what a Wyoming Rule house size looks like with the 2010 census results (547 seats):
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #516 on: December 19, 2018, 03:57:28 PM »

We should have a 705 member US House or something like that.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #517 on: December 19, 2018, 04:13:19 PM »

So I just calculated the likely changes in 2020 apportionment:



My calculations based on these 2018 estimates still suggest that we are on track for this map.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #518 on: December 19, 2018, 04:24:29 PM »

Just for fun, this is what would happen if they non-retroactively reinstated the no states can lose a seat rule for 2020:



It increases the House size by 18.


This map changes quite a bit, however, including the consideration of how much the size changes:



The size would increase by 22.
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muon2
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« Reply #519 on: December 19, 2018, 04:25:56 PM »

So I just calculated the likely changes in 2020 apportionment:



My calculations based on these 2018 estimates still suggest that we are on track for this map.

That's where I was two years ago, and reported the same last year. However I saw MT pick up a little more increase over the last two years and now it looks to be on track to beat CA for the last seat.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #520 on: December 19, 2018, 04:33:03 PM »

So I just calculated the likely changes in 2020 apportionment:



My calculations based on these 2018 estimates still suggest that we are on track for this map.

That's where I was two years ago, and reported the same last year. However I saw MT pick up a little more increase over the last two years and now it looks to be on track to beat CA for the last seat.

Based on my 2018 estimate calculations:

California has 40,045,459 people
Montana has 1,077,768 people

CA-53 value: 762,805
MT-02 value: 762,097

CA-53 is still slightly ahead.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #521 on: December 19, 2018, 05:58:14 PM »

The estimates are out today!

The fastest growing states this year are, according to the Census Bureau:

By percent:

1. Nevada - up 2.1% to 3,034,392
2. Idaho - up 2.1% to 1,754,208
3. Utah - up 1.9% to 3,161,105
4. Arizona - up 1.7% to 7,171,646
5. Florida - up 1.5% to 21,299,325
6. Washington - up 1.5% to 7,535,591
7. Colorado - up 1.4% to 5,695,564
8. Texas - up 1.3% to 28,701,845
9. South Carolina - up 1.3% to 5,084,127
10. North Carolina - up 1.1% to 10,383,260

Numeric:

1. Texas - up 379,128 to 28,701,845
2. Florida - up 322,513 to 21,299,325
3. California - up 157,696 to 39,557,045
4. Arizona   - up 122,770 to 7,171,646
5. North Carolina - up 112,820 to 10,383,620
6. Washington - up 110,159 to 7,535,591
7. Georgia - up 106,420 to 10,519,475
8. Colorado - up 79,662 to 5,695,564
9. South Carolina - up 62,908 to 5,084,127
10. Nevada - up 61,987 to 3,034,392
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muon2
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« Reply #522 on: December 19, 2018, 06:00:25 PM »

So I just calculated the likely changes in 2020 apportionment:



My calculations based on these 2018 estimates still suggest that we are on track for this map.

That's where I was two years ago, and reported the same last year. However I saw MT pick up a little more increase over the last two years and now it looks to be on track to beat CA for the last seat.

Based on my 2018 estimate calculations:

California has 40,045,459 people
Montana has 1,077,768 people

CA-53 value: 762,805
MT-02 value: 762,097

CA-53 is still slightly ahead.

You didn't say your method of estimating for 2020. I assume a compounding growth rate averaged either over the full decade or the final 2 years. That growth rate is applied to the apportionment population which is what the Census will use in 2020. The apportionment population is higher than the residential population (the estimate) due to overseas military personnel.

If I project using the entire decade CA has a 2020 apportionment pop of 40.158 M (39.956 M using a 2-year basis; CA's growth rate has slowed considerably the last couple of years).

If I project using the entire decade MT has a 2020 apportionment pop of 1.084 M (1.087 M using a 2-year basis).

The priority value for seat N is a state of population P is P/sqrt(N(N-1)).
The priority value for CA-53 is 765.0 K (761.1 K with the two year basis).
The priority value for MT-02 is 766.4 K (768.6 K with the two year basis).

Either way MT wins, and the short term trend favors MT extending its lead on CA.
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« Reply #523 on: December 19, 2018, 06:02:32 PM »

I used a linear growth rate estimation based on changes across the whole decade.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #524 on: December 19, 2018, 06:07:45 PM »

The estimates are out today!

The fastest growing states this year are, according to the Census Bureau:

By percent:

1. Nevada - up 2.1% to 3,034,392
2. Idaho - up 2.1% to 1,754,208
3. Utah - up 1.9% to 3,161,105
4. Arizona - up 1.7% to 7,171,646
5. Florida - up 1.5% to 21,299,325
6. Washington - up 1.5% to 7,535,591
7. Colorado - up 1.4% to 5,695,564
8. Texas - up 1.3% to 28,701,845
9. South Carolina - up 1.3% to 5,084,127
10. North Carolina - up 1.1% to 10,383,260

Numeric:

1. Texas - up 379,128 to 28,701,845
2. Florida - up 322,513 to 21,299,325
3. California - up 157,696 to 39,557,045
4. Arizona   - up 122,770 to 7,171,646
5. North Carolina - up 112,820 to 10,383,620
6. Washington - up 110,159 to 7,535,591
7. Georgia - up 106,420 to 10,519,475
8. Colorado - up 79,662 to 5,695,564
9. South Carolina - up 62,908 to 5,084,127
10. Nevada - up 61,987 to 3,034,392


Also please note that in some of these cases, the 2017 was changed significantly, as is the case with California, whose 2018 estimate is up only 20k over the original 2017 estimate.
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