Census population estimates 2011-2019
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cinyc
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« Reply #475 on: May 23, 2018, 06:22:32 PM »

A little under 5 hours until we start getting reports about the fastest-growing incorporated places. Any last guesses as to what was the fastest-growing city with over 10,000 people last year? Will Williston, ND make the list of the biggest percentage losers?
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cinyc
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« Reply #476 on: May 23, 2018, 11:15:03 PM »

The list of the fastest-growing cities is out.

The top 10 % gainers (50K+ pop):
1. Frisco, Texas 8.2%
2. New Braunfels, Texas 8.0%
3. Pflugerville, TX 6.5%
4. Ankeny, IA 6.4%
5. Buckeye, AZ 5.9%
6. Georgetown, Texas 5.4%
7. Castle Rock, Colorado 5.1%
8. Franklin, Tennessee 4.9%
9. McKinney, Texas 4.8%
10. Meridian, Idaho 4.7%

The top numerical gainers were San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, Fort Worth and Los Angeles.

Fort Worth passed Indianapolis to become the 15th largest city.

More here: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2018/estimates-cities.html

As expected, full data won't be available until morning, supposedly before 10AM.
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Seattle
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« Reply #477 on: May 24, 2018, 12:28:47 AM »

And Seattle (+17,500)! Probably one more year of frenzied growth and then both numeric and percentage growth will nosedive like once white hot Austin, Denver, and DC. I guess percentage growth already is.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #478 on: May 24, 2018, 11:40:57 AM »

Random interesting fact: Youngstown, Ohio recorded a gain for the first time since the early days of the Baby Boom.
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cinyc
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« Reply #479 on: May 24, 2018, 04:28:22 PM »

Here's the first set of this year's interactive maps:

2016-2017 Percentage Change in Incorporated Places & County Remainders
2010 Estimates Base - 2017 Percentage Change in Incorporated Places & County Remainders (takes into account annexations and the like)
2010 Census - 2017 Percentage Change in Incorporated Places & County Remainders
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #480 on: May 24, 2018, 07:48:21 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2018, 08:05:20 PM by Cokeland Saxton »

Charlotte, NC will probably pass Indianapolis next year:

Charlotte: 731,424 (census)/735,688 (est. base 2010) --> 842,051 (2016) --> 859,035 (2017)
Indianapolis: 820,445 (census)/820,443 (est. base 2010) --> 855,164 (2016) -->863,002 (2017)

Charlotte gained 16,984 (+2.02%) last year vs. Indianapolis's gain of just 7,838 (+0.92%).

Although we can't predict what will happen exactly, if both cities maintain their 16-17 growth rate:

Charlotte 2018: 876,662
Indianapolis 2018: 870,911

So unless something crazy happens, Indianapolis will most likely drop to #17 in for 2018.

On a different note, my hometown of Elkhart, IN (52,558 in 2017) started growing again after getting screwed by a housing shortage. Cheesy

Also, Austin, TX's growth slowed dramatically, wow.

Other random facts that occurred last year:

Chicago gained about 12k
The unthinkable happened: Detroit grew
Salt Lake city Joined the 200k club
Denver hit 700k
Cincinnati is back over 300k
Akron grew

That's enough for now.
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cinyc
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« Reply #481 on: May 24, 2018, 10:47:18 PM »

Charlotte, NC will probably pass Indianapolis next year:

Charlotte: 731,424 (census)/735,688 (est. base 2010) --> 842,051 (2016) --> 859,035 (2017)
Indianapolis: 820,445 (census)/820,443 (est. base 2010) --> 855,164 (2016) -->863,002 (2017)

Charlotte gained 16,984 (+2.02%) last year vs. Indianapolis's gain of just 7,838 (+0.92%).

Although we can't predict what will happen exactly, if both cities maintain their 16-17 growth rate:

Charlotte 2018: 876,662
Indianapolis 2018: 870,911

So unless something crazy happens, Indianapolis will most likely drop to #17 in for 2018.

On a different note, my hometown of Elkhart, IN (52,558 in 2017) started growing again after getting screwed by a housing shortage. Cheesy

Also, Austin, TX's growth slowed dramatically, wow.

Other random facts that occurred last year:

Chicago gained about 12k
The unthinkable happened: Detroit grew
Salt Lake city Joined the 200k club
Denver hit 700k
Cincinnati is back over 300k
Akron grew

That's enough for now.

I think Detroit grew because Census back-upgraded its prior year estimates, as it's been known to do. Detroit's population actually fell from this year's 2017 to 2016 estimates.

Indianapolis fell behind Fort Worth this year to end up out of the top 15.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #482 on: May 24, 2018, 11:19:14 PM »

In a few years Columbus will be bigger than SF
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #483 on: May 25, 2018, 08:54:01 AM »

In a few years Columbus will be bigger than SF
Maybe as soon as the next census. The gap has closed by about half since last year.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #484 on: May 25, 2018, 10:34:33 AM »

Very competitive race to be the largest city in WV as  Charleston and Huntington both continue to run into reverse.  Charleston continues to lead 47900 to 47100 but Charleston lost 800 vs a 500 loss for Huntington last year. 
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #485 on: May 28, 2018, 12:44:52 PM »

Something I just figured out, if a state or federal prison opens in a county after the 2010 census, then it doesn't get incorporated into census estimates for the rest of the decade.  It's easy to see the demographic impact prisons have on small counties like Gilmer and Summers, WV and Bland, VA and since those prisons existed in the 2010 Census they're captured going forward, but for prisons opened in McDowell WV and Grayson VA after the 2010 census they never show up in Census estimates or American Community Survey data until I guess the Official 2020 Census.
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Storebought
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« Reply #486 on: May 28, 2018, 01:09:29 PM »

When do you think San Antonio will replace Philadelphia as the sixth largest city? It has to be within months.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #487 on: May 28, 2018, 01:25:30 PM »

Charlotte, NC will probably pass Indianapolis next year:

Charlotte: 731,424 (census)/735,688 (est. base 2010) --> 842,051 (2016) --> 859,035 (2017)
Indianapolis: 820,445 (census)/820,443 (est. base 2010) --> 855,164 (2016) -->863,002 (2017)

Charlotte gained 16,984 (+2.02%) last year vs. Indianapolis's gain of just 7,838 (+0.92%).

Although we can't predict what will happen exactly, if both cities maintain their 16-17 growth rate:

Charlotte 2018: 876,662
Indianapolis 2018: 870,911

So unless something crazy happens, Indianapolis will most likely drop to #17 in for 2018.

On a different note, my hometown of Elkhart, IN (52,558 in 2017) started growing again after getting screwed by a housing shortage. Cheesy

Also, Austin, TX's growth slowed dramatically, wow.

Other random facts that occurred last year:

Chicago gained about 12k
The unthinkable happened: Detroit grew
Salt Lake city Joined the 200k club
Denver hit 700k
Cincinnati is back over 300k
Akron grew

That's enough for now.

I think Detroit grew because Census back-upgraded its prior year estimates, as it's been known to do. Detroit's population actually fell from this year's 2017 to 2016 estimates.

Indianapolis fell behind Fort Worth this year to end up out of the top 15.

Which has quite a history in particular in connection with Detroit, as constant revisions upward to the estimates at the request of local government were proven to be completely unfounded when the population collapsed at the 2010 Census compared to the 2009 ACS estimates. 2020 will probably be similar, if less extreme, and show a continued substantial decline.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #488 on: May 28, 2018, 02:42:43 PM »

Something I just figured out, if a state or federal prison opens in a county after the 2010 census, then it doesn't get incorporated into census estimates for the rest of the decade.  It's easy to see the demographic impact prisons have on small counties like Gilmer and Summers, WV and Bland, VA and since those prisons existed in the 2010 Census they're captured going forward, but for prisons opened in McDowell WV and Grayson VA after the 2010 census they never show up in Census estimates or American Community Survey data until I guess the Official 2020 Census.

I think that they do. The new unit in Grayson VA opened in September 2013. The estimates are as of July 1. There were population drops before 2014, and after 2014 that makes it look constant.

In a rural area, a prison might not attract workers into the county, since they can easily commute.

Census 2010   15533
Estimate 2010   15498
Estimate 2011   15366
Estimate 2012   15143
Estimate 2013   15131
Estimate 2014   15921
Estimate 2015   15953
Estimate 2016   15869
Estimate 2017   15665
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #489 on: May 28, 2018, 02:44:38 PM »

When do you think San Antonio will replace Philadelphia as the sixth largest city? It has to be within months.
It might actually be a few years. There is about a 69k gap between Philly and SA in 2017 vs. a 75.4k gap in 2016 and a 198.6k gap in the 2010 census.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #490 on: May 29, 2018, 01:22:35 AM »

Something I just figured out, if a state or federal prison opens in a county after the 2010 census, then it doesn't get incorporated into census estimates for the rest of the decade.  It's easy to see the demographic impact prisons have on small counties like Gilmer and Summers, WV and Bland, VA and since those prisons existed in the 2010 Census they're captured going forward, but for prisons opened in McDowell WV and Grayson VA after the 2010 census they never show up in Census estimates or American Community Survey data until I guess the Official 2020 Census.

I think that they do. The new unit in Grayson VA opened in September 2013. The estimates are as of July 1. There were population drops before 2014, and after 2014 that makes it look constant.

In a rural area, a prison might not attract workers into the county, since they can easily commute.

Census 2010   15533
Estimate 2010   15498
Estimate 2011   15366
Estimate 2012   15143
Estimate 2013   15131
Estimate 2014   15921
Estimate 2015   15953
Estimate 2016   15869
Estimate 2017   15665


Well, I've been using American Fact Finder, specifically via this link

https://business.wvu.edu/centers/bureau-of-business-and-economic-research/data/population-data

And then under the annual estimates of WV counties, I'll click on option 3 or 4 which gives me year by year table with gender or race options.  To look at another states counties I'll just use the add geographies button.  The population estimates for Grayson don't match the ones you have listed and as far as gender is concerned there not the sudden addition of 1000 males at any point.  Same for McDowell.

Also, if I use US census quickfacts it gives me a 2016 estimate of 15107 for Grayson and a 15665 estimate for 2017 (which is an odd increase)

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/graysoncountyvirginia,blandcountyvirginia,gilmercountywestvirginia,mcdowellcountywestvirginia,WV,US/RHI225216

Why are our databases not matching?
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #491 on: May 29, 2018, 09:29:22 AM »

I guess it's possible that the Census did a complete revision for Grayson with this year's estimate and it will all show up when the Gender and Race data are released in June.  Still don't see any indication that the Fed prison in McDowell that opened in the fall of 2010 was ever acknowledged.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #492 on: June 01, 2018, 08:27:55 PM »

Something I just figured out, if a state or federal prison opens in a county after the 2010 census, then it doesn't get incorporated into census estimates for the rest of the decade.  It's easy to see the demographic impact prisons have on small counties like Gilmer and Summers, WV and Bland, VA and since those prisons existed in the 2010 Census they're captured going forward, but for prisons opened in McDowell WV and Grayson VA after the 2010 census they never show up in Census estimates or American Community Survey data until I guess the Official 2020 Census.

I think that they do. The new unit in Grayson VA opened in September 2013. The estimates are as of July 1. There were population drops before 2014, and after 2014 that makes it look constant.

In a rural area, a prison might not attract workers into the county, since they can easily commute.

Census 2010   15533
Estimate 2010   15498
Estimate 2011   15366
Estimate 2012   15143
Estimate 2013   15131
Estimate 2014   15921
Estimate 2015   15953
Estimate 2016   15869
Estimate 2017   15665


Well, I've been using American Fact Finder, specifically via this link

https://business.wvu.edu/centers/bureau-of-business-and-economic-research/data/population-data

And then under the annual estimates of WV counties, I'll click on option 3 or 4 which gives me year by year table with gender or race options.  To look at another states counties I'll just use the add geographies button.  The population estimates for Grayson don't match the ones you have listed and as far as gender is concerned there not the sudden addition of 1000 males at any point.  Same for McDowell.

Also, if I use US census quickfacts it gives me a 2016 estimate of 15107 for Grayson and a 15665 estimate for 2017 (which is an odd increase)

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/graysoncountyvirginia,blandcountyvirginia,gilmercountywestvirginia,mcdowellcountywestvirginia,WV,US/RHI225216

Why are our databases not matching?

For Grayson, the 2015 and 2017 estimates (but not the 2016 vintage) show the step up in 2014.

The components of change are issued each year. They include births and deaths, which have reasonable reporting - but may be misattributed based on place of birth or death being in a different county. Migration is inferred based on Social Security and IRS records. But these don't work for prison populations, since inmates may not have tax liabilities. And while they might show up as moving into a different county after release, it won't show up in the prison county.

I don't know how they handle estimates for institutional population. Probably not that well because it would require a lot of individualized handling (you can's simply feed the IRS and Social Security data into the estimates).

The ACS for Grayson does show an increase in group quarters. The ACS is based on a sample over 5-years. Housing units are assigned to 5 groups so that no household will be surveyed twice in a 5-year period. Each year, roughly one in six housing units for that year's group will be selected randomly, and assigned to one month. Over a five-year period, about 1/6 pf housing units will be surveyed, sufficient for statistically meaningful estimates for block groups. The next year, they throw out the results from the first year, and add in the results for the next year.

When the Census Bureau becomes aware of new housing units they are added in.

For group quarters, they survey chunks of 15 residents. Let's say a prison has 600 inmates, then it will have 40 chunks of 15 (the chunk of 15 does not correspond to any individual inmate or cell). The 40 chunks would be assigned to the 5 year groups (8 per year). Then the number of chunks to be surveyed each year would be determined and assigned to a month. When they make a survey, they get a list of inmates, and randomly select 15.

Under the best of circumstances the ACS will lag population growth since it assumes that there is no change over time, and there were zero population for some of the years in the average.

For McDowell, and the Federal Correctional Institution there has been a definite increase in the group quarters population, and it also shows up in one census tract and city data for Welch (the prison is inside the city limits)..

For Grayson, it only shows up for 2015 and 2016. The 2016 has the correct census tract. It is possible that the Census Bureau was not aware of the prison. This might have to be relayed through some state bureaucracies. River North did not open until fall of 2013. It would not be surprising if a prison opened with lots of guards and few inmates. Rookie guards would not be able to handle the ordinary number of inmates, and you might not want to move a full prison population. If an average sentence is five years (made up number), you could just let the prison fill with new offenders over time.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #493 on: June 03, 2018, 02:16:48 PM »

Well, to make things more complicated a state prison opened up in Welch in the late 2000s.  At this point there should be about 1700 federal and state prisoners in McDowell County and yes they all should be in Welch.  In fact, the population at the Federal Prison reached as high as 1660 before sentencing reform brought it down to around 1250 today. 
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danny
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« Reply #494 on: June 03, 2018, 07:06:33 PM »

These yearly estimates don't seem to even account all of the regular housing. for example based on this article, Bloomingburg, NY must have about doubled in population, but the census bureau shows no change.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #495 on: June 04, 2018, 04:26:42 AM »

These yearly estimates don't seem to even account all of the regular housing. for example based on this article, Bloomingburg, NY must have about doubled in population, but the census bureau shows no change.
It is not clear that this actually happened. Google Earth photo from 2016 shows a lot of what looks like empty buildings.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #496 on: June 16, 2018, 03:43:34 PM »
« Edited: June 16, 2018, 03:47:01 PM by Tintrlvr »

These yearly estimates don't seem to even account all of the regular housing. for example based on this article, Bloomingburg, NY must have about doubled in population, but the census bureau shows no change.

Yes, the estimates are notoriously bad at tracking new housing development, as well as abandonment of existing housing, especially when it's outside of historical patterns. They shouldn't really be taken all that seriously at a micro level as a result.

Edit: Although that development seems to be outside of Bloomingburg village proper when you look at Google Maps. Though the Census says Mamakating town, where it is located, has *lost* population, which seems deeply unlikely.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #497 on: August 22, 2018, 07:38:14 PM »

So I just calculated the likely changes in 2020 apportionment:

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Solid4096
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« Reply #498 on: August 22, 2018, 07:45:55 PM »

Just for fun, this is what would happen if they non-retroactively reinstated the no states can lose a seat rule for 2020:



It increases the House size by 18.
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« Reply #499 on: August 22, 2018, 07:55:06 PM »

For reference, this is my state by state population projection:

CA   40402290
TX   29502646
FL   21811223
NY   20028164
PA   12844485
IL   12790817
OH   11704839
GA   10710330
NC   10553235
MI   09991966
NJ   09086699
VA   08647908
WA   07664128
AZ   07252945
MA   06978168
TN   06856211
IN   06736115
MO   06160797
MD   06157766
WI   05836522
CO   05826331
MN   05680037
SC   05175709
AL   04910634
LA   04741554
KY   04497752
OR   04261009
OK   03998861
CT   03593521
UT   03230019
IA   03183203
NV   03110826
AR   03037752
MS   02990168
KS   02935879
NM   02099018
NE   01955636
WV   01801766
ID   01773571
HI   01453042
NH   01352784
ME   01338769
MT   01073661
RI   01062178
DE   00986216
SD   00890706
ND   00786803
AK   00751002
VT   00622867
WY   00585213
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