Census population estimates 2011-2019
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 180249 times)
crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #450 on: March 23, 2018, 06:21:45 PM »

Technology will mitigate this but 2020 may be the last census in which the sun belt gains significantly from the north due to climate change and natural disasters.

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Solid4096
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« Reply #451 on: March 25, 2018, 11:59:08 AM »



I threw 2017 estimates into an apportionment calculator and displayed the changes. Note that the total seats calculated was 436, one more than the total.

Alternatively, if we were to decide to have an increase in the House size such that no state would lose a seat, the House would have 447 seats, and this would be the changes:

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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #452 on: March 25, 2018, 12:05:16 PM »



I threw 2017 estimates into an apportionment calculator and displayed the changes. Note that the total seats calculated was 436, one more than the total.

Alternatively, if we were to decide to have an increase in the House size such that no state would lose a seat, the House would have 447 seats, and this would be the changes:



How would Rhode Island keep its seat? Doesn’t Montana have more people than RI now?
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Solid4096
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« Reply #453 on: March 25, 2018, 12:11:26 PM »



I threw 2017 estimates into an apportionment calculator and displayed the changes. Note that the total seats calculated was 436, one more than the total.

Alternatively, if we were to decide to have an increase in the House size such that no state would lose a seat, the House would have 447 seats, and this would be the changes:



How would Rhode Island keep its seat? Doesn’t Montana have more people than RI now?

Rhode Island: 1,059,639
Montana     : 1,050,493


about 9000 people difference as of 2017.

Probably going to switch in 2018/2019.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #454 on: March 25, 2018, 01:42:11 PM »

This is probably the most likely scenario:
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muon2
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« Reply #455 on: March 25, 2018, 01:42:15 PM »



I threw 2017 estimates into an apportionment calculator and displayed the changes. Note that the total seats calculated was 436, one more than the total.


Why the increase to 436, unless it's to give one to DC?
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Solid4096
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« Reply #456 on: March 25, 2018, 02:35:26 PM »



I threw 2017 estimates into an apportionment calculator and displayed the changes. Note that the total seats calculated was 436, one more than the total.


Why the increase to 436, unless it's to give one to DC?

The apportionment calculator is weird. Sometimes, it has either a few more representatives apportioned than it is supposed to have, or a few less. So the increase was a result of imperfect calculator math.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #457 on: March 25, 2018, 05:14:37 PM »



I threw 2017 estimates into an apportionment calculator and displayed the changes. Note that the total seats calculated was 436, one more than the total.


Why the increase to 436, unless it's to give one to DC?

The extra seat is NY (-1).
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Torie
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« Reply #458 on: March 28, 2018, 11:30:10 AM »

I see that the growth of NYC has come to a grinding halt, with a 7,272 increase from 7-1-16 to 7-1-17 (with the formally relatively dynamic Brooklyn having lost 2,088, perhaps as the worst ratio of income to housing prices in the nation begins to bite). Every county in the state now has a substantially stagnant population. The NYC metro area as defined by Jimrtex drops from 17.92 seats to 17.88 seats as a projection to 2020.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #459 on: March 28, 2018, 03:18:48 PM »
« Edited: March 28, 2018, 03:22:36 PM by Tintrlvr »

I see that the growth of NYC has come to a grinding halt, with a 7,272 increase from 7-1-16 to 7-1-17 (with the formally relatively dynamic Brooklyn having lost 2,088, perhaps as the worst ratio of income to housing prices in the nation begins to bite). Every county in the state now has a substantially stagnant population. The NYC metro area as defined by Jimrtex drops from 17.92 seats to 17.88 seats as a projection to 2020.

"Brooklyn" being dynamic was always false. There are large areas of Brooklyn that are nothing like the stereotypes.

All of the population loss in going to be in poor areas in the east and southeast of Brooklyn that remain very inexpensive and certainly not dynamic. The expensive, dynamic parts of Brooklyn in the north and northeast will still have seen gains (perhaps slower ones, but probably not - new construction continues apace in the boom areas of Downtown Brooklyn, Williamsburg, etc. and is the main driver of population growth). The middle-class areas in the south and southwest will probably also have seen some gains, as elderly people living alone are replaced by recent immigrants and ultra-Orthodox Jews, in both cases, with children.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #460 on: March 28, 2018, 03:42:37 PM »

TX's new House map is going to be insane. TX-26 and TX-24 will have to be much smaller physically with the way the area northwest of Dallas is growing.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #461 on: March 28, 2018, 06:49:46 PM »

The districts in Miami Metro, FL will likely be squished even smaller too, if the state gains two seats. The Miami metro is growing substantially, as is the Orlando metro. Hillsborough County (part of Tampa metro) too.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #462 on: May 05, 2018, 09:35:54 AM »

Does anyone know when this month the City and Town (incorporated places and I believe all census-designated "county subdivisions", which are generally the same thing in New England) estimates for July 1, 2017 will be released?
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Torie
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« Reply #463 on: May 05, 2018, 10:07:27 AM »

You probably already knew this, but sometime this month. Last year, it was May 23.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #464 on: May 05, 2018, 05:38:08 PM »

Does anyone know when this month the City and Town (incorporated places and I believe all census-designated "county subdivisions", which are generally the same thing in New England) estimates for July 1, 2017 will be released?
It is incorporated places and (some) minor civil divisions. Technically, estimates are made for the "estimates universe county subdivisions" which means the county subdivisions that the Census Bureau makes estimates for.

In practice these are the minor civil divisions in 20 of the 21 states in the Northeast and Midwest divisions (all except Iowa). These are the areas where minor civil divisions (towns and townships) typically have functioning governments.

There are another eight states where there are minor civil divisions recognized by the Census Bureau (and delineated by the state). In some cases, these are used because there are advantages when applying for federal grants.

In another 20 states, the Census Bureau has defined Census County Divisions, which permits the census bureau to present some data at a level equivalent to MCD in other states. Through 1950, the Census Bureau treated all counties as having MCD, though these were often temporary such as election precincts, or electoral districts. CCD are a way to provide statistical consistency from decade to decade, but in practical terms are useless.

In Alaska, the Census Bureau has defined Census Areas and Census Subareas in areas of the state with no local government (the Unorganized Borough). These serve as county equivalents and county subdivisions.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #465 on: May 06, 2018, 12:20:06 AM »

You probably already knew this, but sometime this month. Last year, it was May 23.

It looks like the 24th

https://www.calendarwiz.com/calendars/calendar.php?crd=cens1sample&PHPSESSID=1376188eb446e0e6b8ec05b90f763b0f&jsenabled=1&winH=424
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #466 on: May 06, 2018, 08:45:58 AM »

In practice these are the minor civil divisions in 20 of the 21 states in the Northeast and Midwest divisions (all except Iowa). These are the areas where minor civil divisions (towns and townships) typically have functioning governments.

There are another eight states where there are minor civil divisions recognized by the Census Bureau (and delineated by the state). In some cases, these are used because there are advantages when applying for federal grants.

In another 20 states, the Census Bureau has defined Census County Divisions, which permits the census bureau to present some data at a level equivalent to MCD in other states. Through 1950, the Census Bureau treated all counties as having MCD, though these were often temporary such as election precincts, or electoral districts. CCD are a way to provide statistical consistency from decade to decade, but in practical terms are useless.

In Alaska, the Census Bureau has defined Census Areas and Census Subareas in areas of the state with no local government (the Unorganized Borough). These serve as county equivalents and county subdivisions.
20 + 8 + 20 + 1 (Alaska) = 49.  Is Iowa in with the 8 or the 20, and if so was it included in your tally?
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cinyc
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« Reply #467 on: May 06, 2018, 01:26:22 PM »


It's almost always the Thursday before Memorial Day weekend. That usually gives me the weekend to make my population change map. Now that I'm a little more adept with QGIS, I might have a quicker turnaround.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #468 on: May 06, 2018, 08:32:22 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2018, 03:28:54 PM by jimrtex »

In practice these are the minor civil divisions in 20 of the 21 states in the Northeast and Midwest divisions (all except Iowa). These are the areas where minor civil divisions (towns and townships) typically have functioning governments.

There are another eight states where there are minor civil divisions recognized by the Census Bureau (and delineated by the state). In some cases, these are used because there are advantages when applying for federal grants.

In another 20 states, the Census Bureau has defined Census County Divisions, which permits the census bureau to present some data at a level equivalent to MCD in other states. Through 1950, the Census Bureau treated all counties as having MCD, though these were often temporary such as election precincts, or electoral districts. CCD are a way to provide statistical consistency from decade to decade, but in practical terms are useless.

In Alaska, the Census Bureau has defined Census Areas and Census Subareas in areas of the state with no local government (the Unorganized Borough). These serve as county equivalents and county subdivisions.
20 + 8 + 20 + 1 (Alaska) = 49.  Is Iowa in with the 8 or the 20, and if so was it included in your tally?
Iowa is not with the 8 or the 20.

Northeast (9) + Midwest (12) + Southeast (8) = Minor Civil Division (29)
Southeast (8) + West (12) = Census County Division (20)
Wesr (1, Alaska) = Census Subarea (1)

Census Estimates: Northeast(9) + Midwest (11, all bu Iowa) = Estimates (20)
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The Free North
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« Reply #469 on: May 12, 2018, 06:46:04 PM »

Technology will mitigate this but 2020 may be the last census in which the sun belt gains significantly from the north due to climate change and natural disasters.



This might be the dumbest thing i've read all year.

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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #470 on: May 13, 2018, 03:03:18 AM »

Technology will mitigate this but 2020 may be the last census in which the sun belt gains significantly from the north due to climate change and natural disasters.



This might be the dumbest thing i've read all year.



Lol
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Brittain33
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« Reply #471 on: May 14, 2018, 02:08:59 AM »

Technology will mitigate this but 2020 may be the last census in which the sun belt gains significantly from the north due to climate change and natural disasters.



This might be the dumbest thing i've read all year.



In what year do you predict that climate change and sea level rise will turn on Miami and the rest of south Florida? It is only a matter of time, and Miami Beach is already starting to have problems. The end will start not with a major disaster, but with a collapse in real estate when banks refuse to write mortgages on properties.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #472 on: May 15, 2018, 03:52:10 PM »



Posting a map of the next 24 seats that would have been awarded in 2010 apportionment if the House size was larger because why not?
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Torie
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« Reply #473 on: May 18, 2018, 05:32:54 AM »

May 24 is the date that the masses get to see the locality population estimates.
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cinyc
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« Reply #474 on: May 19, 2018, 08:48:19 PM »
« Edited: May 19, 2018, 08:51:27 PM by cinyc »

May 24 is the date that the masses get to see the locality population estimates.

12:01AM, to be exact. Last year, I think we had to wait until the morning, around 10AM for the actual data. We still might have to this year.

I probably should start updating my shapefiles so I can update the pop estimate maps. The 2016 series is still available on Carto here, for now:
https://cinyc.carto.com/viz/2179fb11-c942-4958-b0e8-147324cb395a/public_map (2016 estimate vs the 2010 Estimates Base).

The 2016 series won't be around after Thursday. I'm going to have to nuke it to make space in my Carto account for the 2017 maps.
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