Census population estimates 2011-2019
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:52:31 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Census population estimates 2011-2019
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 10 11 12 [13] 14 15 16 17 18 ... 36
Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 180245 times)
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #300 on: March 22, 2017, 07:22:59 PM »

I want to see if the (until recently) fast-growing oil counties, like McKenzie and Williams, ND, have started to lose population or are just growing more slowly.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #301 on: March 22, 2017, 08:58:57 PM »

I want to see if the (until recently) fast-growing oil counties, like McKenzie and Williams, ND, have started to lose population or are just growing more slowly.

Based on the state data it will be close.
Logged
muon2
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #302 on: March 23, 2017, 06:34:29 AM »

I want to see if the (until recently) fast-growing oil counties, like McKenzie and Williams, ND, have started to lose population or are just growing more slowly.

It looks like they are losing:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #303 on: March 23, 2017, 08:06:57 PM »

When do the county subdivision estimates come out?  June?
Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #304 on: March 23, 2017, 08:24:37 PM »

When do the county subdivision estimates come out?  June?
May.

Technically it is incorporated place and minor civil division (i.e. legal entities).
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #305 on: March 23, 2017, 09:19:06 PM »

When do the county subdivision estimates come out?  June?
May.

Technically it is incorporated place and minor civil division (i.e. legal entities).

Great! 

Hopefully, I'll find the time to update the maps I made last year, like the 2014-2015 Percentage Change Map for those incorporated places, minor civil divisions (and CDPs?).
Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #306 on: March 23, 2017, 10:16:42 PM »

When do the county subdivision estimates come out?  June?
May.

Technically it is incorporated place and minor civil division (i.e. legal entities).

Great! 

Hopefully, I'll find the time to update the maps I made last year, like the 2014-2015 Percentage Change Map for those incorporated places, minor civil divisions (and CDPs?).


Incorporated places only.

The American Community Survey does produce estimates for other census geography down to the Block Group level. The sampling used for the ACS is designed to produce statistically valid results for such small areas - if you use the 5-year sample. So for CDP's you could get an 2011-2015 estimate. Perhaps not so useful for population total, but useful for other social characteristics.

For small population cities (a couple of hundred) the census uses a higher sampling rate for the ACS.

The ACS also produces results for things like congressional districts and legislative districts. For some of these, you may be able to use one-year samples. The census bureau knows where their samples are from and they could produce estimates for a census block, but a 4-household sample for a block with 20 houses is not a very good sample, and would break confidentiality anyhow. But they can aggregate samples for larger areas. For example, they have produced CVAP estimates by race for various congressional district plans in Texas.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #307 on: April 27, 2017, 06:19:59 PM »

When do the county subdivision estimates come out?  June?
May.

Technically it is incorporated place and minor civil division (i.e. legal entities).

According to Census' calendar, the incorporated place and minor civil division population estimates will be released to the public on Thursday, May 25.  It looks like there will be an embargoed release to the media on Tuesday, May 23.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #308 on: May 10, 2017, 09:49:41 PM »

Census has released their November 2016 Voting and Registration Supplement.

From what I've read elsewhere on the Internet but not independently verified, overall Hispanic turnout was slightly down in 2016 versus 2012, even though more Hispanics voted due to Hispanic VAP growth.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #309 on: May 23, 2017, 11:43:35 AM »

2016 city and town population estimates come out on Thursday (an embargoed press release and graphic supposedly went out to the media today).  Any predictions or things you want to see?

I'm interested in population declines in Western North Dakota, and how much Upstate New York Cities proper have lost population over the past year.
Logged
Seattle
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 786
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #310 on: May 23, 2017, 01:18:15 PM »

Prediction: Seattle tops 700k. It'll be tough, but July 2015-2016 saw around ~7,500 units delivered, a similar, if not slightly greater amount than the previous period. 2016-2017, 2017-2018, and 2018-2019 should be nuts though, with ~10k and ~13k expected in 2017 and 2018 respectively.

I'd also like to see if growth has picked up in Tacoma and Spokane.

Things to look for:
Phoenix passes Philadelphia (4k difference)
San Francisco passes Jacksonville (4k difference)
Columbus passes Indianapolis (3k difference)
DC passes Detroit (5k difference), as Detroit is still declining
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #311 on: May 24, 2017, 11:20:21 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2017, 11:31:00 PM by cinyc »

The embargo on the city estimates has been lifted, and various news websites are filing stories on the population estimates.  But the database and press release isn't available yet on census.gov.

Here's an alternate link to search for city results from Cleveland.com.

Yes, Seattle topped 700,000 residents.

The Top 10 U.S. Cities
1. New York: 8,537,673
2. Los Angeles: 3,976,322
3. Chicago: 2,704,958
4. Houston: 2,303,482
5. Phoenix: 1,615,017
6. Philadelphia: 1,567,872
7. San Antonio: 1,492,510
8. San Diego: 1,406,630
9. Dallas: 1,317,929
10. San Jose: 1,025,350
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #312 on: May 24, 2017, 11:49:57 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2017, 11:58:20 PM by cinyc »

Census' press release is here.  The rest of their press kit is here. The actual data will be available in the morning, before 10AM.

From the press release:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Things to look for:
Phoenix passes Philadelphia (4k difference)
San Francisco passes Jacksonville (4k difference)
Columbus passes Indianapolis (3k difference)
DC passes Detroit (5k difference), as Detroit is still declining

Phoenix passed Philadelphia.
San Francisco did not pass Jacksonville.
Columbus passed Indianapolis.
DC passed Detroit, which is still declining.  Detroit reportedly fell to 23 or 24, depending on which newspaper you believe.
Logged
Seattle
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 786
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #313 on: May 25, 2017, 12:10:19 AM »

Thanks for the data scrounging! Very happy to see Seattle reach over 700k. Back in 2010, no one thought the city would reach that mark before 2020, let alone 2016!
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #314 on: May 25, 2017, 09:14:55 AM »

Has the data been posted yet?
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #315 on: May 25, 2017, 09:24:41 AM »

Nashville passed Memphis to become the largest city in Tennessee.

Charleston passed Columbia to become the largest city in South Carolina.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #316 on: May 25, 2017, 09:39:35 AM »

Nashville passed Memphis to become the largest city in Tennessee.

Charleston passed Columbia to become the largest city in South Carolina.

It's always surprised me that Charleston and Nashville weren't previously the largest
Logged
muon2
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #317 on: May 25, 2017, 10:02:00 AM »

After growing by 23K in the first 3 years of the decade Chicago has joined the rest of IL with population losses, falling by 14K since 2013, 8K just in last estimate year (7/1/15 - 7/1/16).
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #318 on: May 25, 2017, 11:19:19 AM »


I didn't see the raw data anywhere
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #319 on: May 25, 2017, 12:57:54 PM »


Here ya go!
Logged
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #320 on: May 25, 2017, 01:13:52 PM »

DC passed Detroit, which is still declining.  Detroit reportedly fell to 23 or 24, depending on which newspaper you believe.

#23, apparently. Boston also passed Detroit. Still ahead of Nashville with a gap big enough that Nashville probably won't pass Detroit next year (but obviously will in 2019).
Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #321 on: May 25, 2017, 02:13:09 PM »

Nashville passed Memphis to become the largest city in Tennessee.

Charleston passed Columbia to become the largest city in South Carolina.
So the number of capitals that are the largest remains constant at 17.

Possible future losses would be Cheyenne (to Casper) and Charleston (to Huntington), and a reversal Nashville (to Memphis).

Possible reversals Columbia (from Charleston), Hartford (from Bridgeport and New Haven), and Madison (from Milwaukee)
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #322 on: May 26, 2017, 03:01:22 AM »

I've made my maps using the 2016 Estimates Data.  Please let me know if there are any obvious errors. There may be a separate post analyzing trends in the future:

2015-2016 Percentage Change in  Cities, Towns, and County Remainders Population
2010-2016 Percentage Change versus 2010 Census
2010-2016 Percentage Change versus 2010 Estimates Base (takes into account annexations and the like)

2015-2016 Numerical Change in  Cities, Towns, and County Remainders Population
2010-2016 Numerical Change versus 2010 Census
2010-2016 Numerical Change versus 2010 Estimates Base
Logged
ajc0918
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,861
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #323 on: May 26, 2017, 07:30:34 AM »


Wow these are awesome, thank you.

I'm a little biased but I can't help but notice how Florida sticks out so much in the 2015-2016 and 2010-2016 percentage change map. Central Florida both Orlando and Tampa are seeing huge influxes of population. It will be interesting how this changes things politically.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,536
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #324 on: May 26, 2017, 07:51:54 AM »

Cinyc, in Arkansas, what are you going to do with College City located in Lawrence County.  It consolidated with Walnut Ridge in May of last year.  It was in the final phases of occurring when the data was estimated.

Could you possibly combine the two on one of your maps to show that this occurred?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 10 11 12 [13] 14 15 16 17 18 ... 36  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 12 queries.