Census population estimates 2011-2019
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Vern
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« Reply #275 on: December 24, 2016, 12:57:39 PM »

Could NC pass GA in the next few years in population?
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muon2
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« Reply #276 on: December 24, 2016, 01:29:11 PM »

Could NC pass GA in the next few years in population?

GA and NC are both growing at a rate of 1.0%/year. The were 162K apart in pop in 2010 an GA got a favorable rounding to give it one more seat than NC. In the 2016 estimate GA is 172K ahead of NC so GA is actually gaining slightly faster and should stay ahead of NC.

If they maintain the same rate of growth for the whole decade GA will be 181K ahead of NC for the 2020 census. However, this time GA will round down and NC will round up so NC gains a seat to equalize with GA.
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Torie
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« Reply #277 on: December 24, 2016, 06:07:13 PM »
« Edited: December 24, 2016, 06:11:37 PM by Torie »

In other news, Hudson seems to be on track to fall a tad below 6,000 (excluding the prisoner population). No, I have not crunched the numbers - it was just an eyeball thing. On my block, since the 2010 census, I suspect that the drop has been around 40% - just massive. But I am bring a new unit on line on my block. But I see no abatement to the trend. If anything it is accelerating, and since the local school district is so horrible, the new folks moving in, into refurbished housing, or who refurbish, convert multi family dwellings to single family, etc., are almost always folks with no kids, or with kids who don't live at home (they have achieved the age of majority). So Hudson is moving slowly towards more well to do folks with no kids in school, or in private school, or folks with kids, who are poor.

Quite a toxic combo really, and replicated across the Fruited Plain. We have a problem! Who knew?
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snowguy716
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« Reply #278 on: December 24, 2016, 06:56:20 PM »

In other news, Hudson seems to be on track to fall a tad below 6,000 (excluding the prisoner population). No, I have not crunched the numbers - it was just an eyeball thing. On my block, since the 2010 census, I suspect that the drop has been around 40% - just massive. But I am bring a new unit on line on my block. But I see no abatement to the trend. If anything it is accelerating, and since the local school district is so horrible, the new folks moving in, into refurbished housing, or who refurbish, convert multi family dwellings to single family, etc., are almost always folks with no kids, or with kids who don't live at home (they have achieved the age of majority). So Hudson is moving slowly towards more well to do folks with no kids in school, or in private school, or folks with kids, who are poor.

Quite a toxic combo really, and replicated across the Fruited Plain. We have a problem! Who knew?
Basically what demographers predicted to happen by the 1990s is only now starting to occur.  An irreversible trend of fast aging and population decline for the vast majority of the U.S.  Already the winners and losers among big cities are being picked... Denver, Seattle, Houston, Dallas win... Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis lose...

Upstate New York is in for it... without a new baby boom.. because people tend to have kids in place (as opposed to attracting immigrants)
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jimrtex
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« Reply #279 on: December 24, 2016, 11:38:20 PM »

Question:

The 2020 Census is done on April 1, 2020 (and slightly before and after that).

But the results + apportionment of CD's and EV's are only announced in December 2020.

So, are the new EV numbers already used for the 2020 Presidential election, or only for 2024 ?
The number of representatives take effect with the term beginning on January 3, 2023. If there is a special election in 2022 to fill a vacancy in the house, the old boundaries will be used, even if a primary for the new boundaries is held at the same time. Some states with odd-year legislative elections may use the new census data for 2011 elections.

Based on the 2000 census data, the population of the Bush states and the Gore states was extremely close. Had the 2000 apportion been used, Bush would have won the electoral vote based on winning the greater number of states carried and the two senate-based electors. This would have been true even if thousands of representatives had been apportioned.

The electoral vote was as close as it was, only because it was based on 10+ year old data.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #280 on: December 24, 2016, 11:39:20 PM »

Is there any set date when the county estimates come out?

They come out in March, I don't know if there's a public date yet.
It appears to be March 23, with an embargoed release on March 21.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #281 on: January 23, 2017, 08:19:09 AM »

What are NC's chances of getting a 15th district in 2030?
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muon2
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« Reply #282 on: January 23, 2017, 10:07:39 AM »

What are NC's chances of getting a 15th district in 2030?

As I noted above, GA is maintaining its lead over NC this decade. If that continues into the next decade then GA gets its 15th CD before NC. The question you would have to ask is what conditions are needed for both GA and NC to gain in 2030. That requires some guesses about changes in growth in places like TX and FL, and how much the Rust Belt slows compared to the rest of the US. That's hard so far out without a lot of other projection data that isn't in the basic estimate.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #283 on: January 30, 2017, 07:39:33 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2017, 04:54:32 PM by Kevinstat »

In other news, Hudson seems to be on track to fall a tad below 6,000 (excluding the prisoner population). No, I have not crunched the numbers - it was just an eyeball thing. On my block, since the 2010 census, I suspect that the drop has been around 40% - just massive. But I am bring a new unit on line on my block. But I see no abatement to the trend. If anything it is accelerating, and since the local school district is so horrible, the new folks moving in, into refurbished housing, or who refurbish, convert multi family dwellings to single family, etc., are almost always folks with no kids, or with kids who don't live at home (they have achieved the age of majority). So Hudson is moving slowly towards more well to do folks with no kids in school, or in private school, or folks with kids, who are poor.

Quite a toxic combo really, and replicated across the Fruited Plain. We have a problem! Who knew?
Basically what demographers predicted to happen by the 1990s is only now starting to occur.  An irreversible trend of fast aging and population decline for the vast majority of the U.S.  Already the winners and losers among big cities are being picked... Denver, Seattle, Houston, Dallas win... Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis lose...

Upstate New York is in for it... without a new baby boom.. because people tend to have kids in place (as opposed to attracting immigrants)
I didn't get what you were saying in that last paragraph, about having kids "in place" as opposed to attracting immigrants.  I'm admitting to it as from your overall post, I imagine it will be something worth "getting", once I do.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #284 on: January 30, 2017, 07:44:49 PM »

Is there any set date when the county estimates come out?

They come out in March, I don't know if there's a public date yet.
It appears to be March 23, with an embargoed release on March 21.
Living in New England, it's the May release of county subdivision and place (like municipality) data that I'm anxiously awaiting.  In terms of what legislative districts might look like, the county projections are most useful indicators at the ends of the state and less so in the middle (population-wise), which is pretty much where I am.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #285 on: February 03, 2017, 05:23:22 AM »

Could NC pass GA in the next few years in population?

Pretty unlikely.

They are having virtually the same growth.
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Cokeland Chastain
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« Reply #286 on: February 12, 2017, 02:42:27 PM »

AL = Loser; Montgomery and Birmingham shrinking
AZ = Winner; Area around Phoenix exploding
CA = Winner; Mexicans entering state
CO = Winner
FL = Winner; Cubans + Old people moving to state
GA = Winner; Atlanta growing
IL = Loser; R.I.P. Chicago
MA = Loser; Boston shrinking
MI = Loser; R.I.P. Detroit
MO = Loser; R.I.P. St. Louis
NV = Winner; Las Vegas exploding
NY = Loser; people getting the heck out
etc.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #287 on: February 12, 2017, 11:09:10 PM »

AL = Loser; Montgomery and Birmingham shrinking
AZ = Winner; Area around Phoenix exploding
CA = Winner; Mexicans entering state
CO = Winner
FL = Winner; Cubans + Old people moving to state
GA = Winner; Atlanta growing
IL = Loser; R.I.P. Chicago
MA = Loser; Boston shrinking
MI = Loser; R.I.P. Detroit
MO = Loser; R.I.P. St. Louis
NV = Winner; Las Vegas exploding
NY = Loser; people getting the heck out
etc.

I'm not sure I understand this post, but Boston is growing in population faster than it has in decades.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #288 on: February 13, 2017, 10:31:31 AM »

AL = Loser; Montgomery and Birmingham shrinking
AZ = Winner; Area around Phoenix exploding
CA = Winner; Mexicans entering state
CO = Winner
FL = Winner; Cubans + Old people moving to state
GA = Winner; Atlanta growing
IL = Loser; R.I.P. Chicago
MA = Loser; Boston shrinking
MI = Loser; R.I.P. Detroit
MO = Loser; R.I.P. St. Louis
NV = Winner; Las Vegas exploding
NY = Loser; people getting the heck out
etc.

In a lot of those cases it's actually the rural/small town area's decline that's causing them to be "losers".    NYC and Boston in particular are actually doing pretty good.   Upstate NY is where the population loss is happening.   

Same goes for Illinois,  Chicago itself might be losing people (very recently) but the downstate area is where the real loses are happening as well.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #289 on: February 14, 2017, 04:42:58 PM »

AL = Loser; Montgomery and Birmingham shrinking
AZ = Winner; Area around Phoenix exploding
CA = Winner; Mexicans entering state
CO = Winner
FL = Winner; Cubans + Old people moving to state
GA = Winner; Atlanta growing
IL = Loser; R.I.P. Chicago
MA = Loser; Boston shrinking
MI = Loser; R.I.P. Detroit
MO = Loser; R.I.P. St. Louis
NV = Winner; Las Vegas exploding
NY = Loser; people getting the heck out
etc.

This makes me think the last time you did your research was 1997.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #290 on: February 14, 2017, 05:59:09 PM »

In other news, Hudson seems to be on track to fall a tad below 6,000 (excluding the prisoner population). No, I have not crunched the numbers - it was just an eyeball thing. On my block, since the 2010 census, I suspect that the drop has been around 40% - just massive. But I am bring a new unit on line on my block. But I see no abatement to the trend. If anything it is accelerating, and since the local school district is so horrible, the new folks moving in, into refurbished housing, or who refurbish, convert multi family dwellings to single family, etc., are almost always folks with no kids, or with kids who don't live at home (they have achieved the age of majority). So Hudson is moving slowly towards more well to do folks with no kids in school, or in private school, or folks with kids, who are poor.

Quite a toxic combo really, and replicated across the Fruited Plain. We have a problem! Who knew?
Basically what demographers predicted to happen by the 1990s is only now starting to occur.  An irreversible trend of fast aging and population decline for the vast majority of the U.S.  Already the winners and losers among big cities are being picked... Denver, Seattle, Houston, Dallas win... Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis lose...

Upstate New York is in for it... without a new baby boom.. because people tend to have kids in place (as opposed to attracting immigrants)
I didn't get what you were saying in that last paragraph, about having kids "in place" as opposed to attracting immigrants.  I'm admitting to it as from your overall post, I imagine it will be something worth "getting", once I do.
These areas don't attract immigrants or domestic migrants because there are not jobs available and they might be seeking nicer climes.

But if people started having more children, which can happen for myriad reasons that have nothing to do with the economy, it would increase demand for products and services which would push up demand for productivity from the parents, increasing job security.  The aggregate effect is a more vibrant economy and community.

Reinforcing this would be that families with children try to avoid picking up and moving far away.  A baby boom would likely decrease mobility and there would be a desire for companies to invest where they were rather than somewhere that immigrants or domestic migrants want to go.

At this point, we are so far along in the aging and deindustrialization process, that this would likely not fix the situation... but it would slow the decline.

New England has a top heavy age structure because fertility there is low.  In 15 years the largest cohorts of people will be in their early 70s and without a major change in migration, the population will be declining quickly.  And the problem is that unlike with growth, which can be directed into neat, new subdivisions one at a time... shrinkage is piecemeal... one older couple dies out down the street, another across the street... now you have two empty houses with no chance of being filled again... and the lawns become overgrown, etc.  Empty lots slowly replace the once bustling, tidy neighborhood... this drives the remaining people out... to places like Florida.





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hopper
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« Reply #291 on: February 18, 2017, 11:45:50 PM »

AL = Loser; Montgomery and Birmingham shrinking
AZ = Winner; Area around Phoenix exploding
CA = Winner; Mexicans entering state
CO = Winner
FL = Winner; Cubans + Old people moving to state
GA = Winner; Atlanta growing
IL = Loser; R.I.P. Chicago
MA = Loser; Boston shrinking
MI = Loser; R.I.P. Detroit
MO = Loser; R.I.P. St. Louis
NV = Winner; Las Vegas exploding
NY = Loser; people getting the heck out
etc.
No the Hispanic Population Boom in CA was from 1970-2010.
MA-Boston is growing by the way. Its Western Massachusetts that's not gaining much population or maybe losing population.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #292 on: February 24, 2017, 08:43:44 PM »

In other news, Hudson seems to be on track to fall a tad below 6,000 (excluding the prisoner population). No, I have not crunched the numbers - it was just an eyeball thing. On my block, since the 2010 census, I suspect that the drop has been around 40% - just massive. But I am bring a new unit on line on my block. But I see no abatement to the trend. If anything it is accelerating, and since the local school district is so horrible, the new folks moving in, into refurbished housing, or who refurbish, convert multi family dwellings to single family, etc., are almost always folks with no kids, or with kids who don't live at home (they have achieved the age of majority). So Hudson is moving slowly towards more well to do folks with no kids in school, or in private school, or folks with kids, who are poor.

Quite a toxic combo really, and replicated across the Fruited Plain. We have a problem! Who knew?
Basically what demographers predicted to happen by the 1990s is only now starting to occur.  An irreversible trend of fast aging and population decline for the vast majority of the U.S.  Already the winners and losers among big cities are being picked... Denver, Seattle, Houston, Dallas win... Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis lose...

Upstate New York is in for it... without a new baby boom.. because people tend to have kids in place (as opposed to attracting immigrants)
I didn't get what you were saying in that last paragraph, about having kids "in place" as opposed to attracting immigrants.  I'm admitting to it as from your overall post, I imagine it will be something worth "getting", once I do.
These areas don't attract immigrants or domestic migrants because there are not jobs available and they might be seeking nicer climes.

But if people started having more children, which can happen for myriad reasons that have nothing to do with the economy, it would increase demand for products and services which would push up demand for productivity from the parents, increasing job security.  The aggregate effect is a more vibrant economy and community.

Reinforcing this would be that families with children try to avoid picking up and moving far away.  A baby boom would likely decrease mobility and there would be a desire for companies to invest where they were rather than somewhere that immigrants or domestic migrants want to go.

At this point, we are so far along in the aging and deindustrialization process, that this would likely not fix the situation... but it would slow the decline.

New England has a top heavy age structure because fertility there is low.  In 15 years the largest cohorts of people will be in their early 70s and without a major change in migration, the population will be declining quickly.  And the problem is that unlike with growth, which can be directed into neat, new subdivisions one at a time... shrinkage is piecemeal... one older couple dies out down the street, another across the street... now you have two empty houses with no chance of being filled again... and the lawns become overgrown, etc.  Empty lots slowly replace the once bustling, tidy neighborhood... this drives the remaining people out... to places like Florida.
Thanks.  Your explanation was definitely worth asking for, as I expected.
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nclib
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« Reply #293 on: February 25, 2017, 05:10:59 PM »

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but where could I find congressional district data/populations in 2010, and also in 2016 (or most recent estimate)?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #294 on: February 25, 2017, 11:57:55 PM »

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but where could I find congressional district data/populations in 2010, and also in 2016 (or most recent estimate)?

The Census Bureau American Fact Finder.

There was a special compilation of Census Data for the new congressional districts (113th session was after redistricting) (they won't be correct for Florida or Virginia, until they get updated they will be 115th)

The American Community Survey has estimates for congressional districts. Be sure to use 1-year 2015. Otherwise, you get blended data over 5 years - better for social characteristics since there is more data, but less so for a snapshot population. You could get 1-year data for previous years and try to project a trend line.
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nclib
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« Reply #295 on: February 26, 2017, 09:00:43 PM »

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but where could I find congressional district data/populations in 2010, and also in 2016 (or most recent estimate)?

The Census Bureau American Fact Finder.

There was a special compilation of Census Data for the new congressional districts (113th session was after redistricting) (they won't be correct for Florida or Virginia, until they get updated they will be 115th)

The American Community Survey has estimates for congressional districts. Be sure to use 1-year 2015. Otherwise, you get blended data over 5 years - better for social characteristics since there is more data, but less so for a snapshot population. You could get 1-year data for previous years and try to project a trend line.

Somehow it's too big for my computer's memory. Is there another way; I'm mainly looking for actual population estimates for CDs in 2010 and 2015.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #296 on: February 28, 2017, 09:23:54 AM »

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but where could I find congressional district data/populations in 2010, and also in 2016 (or most recent estimate)?

The Census Bureau American Fact Finder.

There was a special compilation of Census Data for the new congressional districts (113th session was after redistricting) (they won't be correct for Florida or Virginia, until they get updated they will be 115th)

The American Community Survey has estimates for congressional districts. Be sure to use 1-year 2015. Otherwise, you get blended data over 5 years - better for social characteristics since there is more data, but less so for a snapshot population. You could get 1-year data for previous years and try to project a trend line.

Somehow it's too big for my computer's memory. Is there another way; I'm mainly looking for actual population estimates for CDs in 2010 and 2015.
I doubt that.

Go to American Fact Finder. Do advanced search show all.

Topic > Years > 2010
Topic > Data Set > 2010 113th Congress 100% Data

Geographies (show all radio button)
Geographies > Congressional Districts > All Congressional Districts for United States

Topics > People > Basic Count/Estimate > Total Population
Check P1, View or Download

========

Clear All Selections

Topics > Year > 2015
(no need to select data set since there is only one for 2015)
Geographies > Congressional Districts
Select all congressional districts in United States
Topic > People > Basic Count/Estimate > Total Population

Check total count, using the 2015 1-year estimate.
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nclib
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« Reply #297 on: February 28, 2017, 11:12:38 PM »

That works now, thanks.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #298 on: March 20, 2017, 08:13:21 AM »

2016 County Estimates will be released on Thursday, March 23 .
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #299 on: March 22, 2017, 07:18:16 PM »

2016 County Estimates will be released on Thursday, March 23 .
It'll be interesting to see if my county (Lake) declined yet again.
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