Census population estimates 2011-2019
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  Census population estimates 2011-2019
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 180238 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #225 on: December 17, 2016, 10:19:01 AM »

I don't see a total collapse in ND.

Maybe down to +1% from the previous year's 2% (when it was still the fastest growing state in the US, even though oil prices already went down).

ND still has much more births than deaths and some people are still moving there, so probably no total collapse ...
They'll take their children with them when they move.

Probably a silly thing for me to post ... but some families may stay put and wait for higher oil prices rather than moving out of the state. Some might also have moved to bigger ND cities who are less dependent on oil and gas in the meantime ...
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #226 on: December 17, 2016, 11:14:27 AM »

New mid-2016 population estimates are out next Tuesday for the US, the states, DC and Puerto Rico as well as the voting-age estimates for each state and demographic changes over the past year (births, deaths, migration balances - which includes international and domestic migration estimates for each state).

Something to look at:

* CO will overtake MN in terms of total population
* PA could overtake IL, but that's very unlikely (more likely in 2017)
* NJ could hit 9 million (also unlikely => 2017)
* TN will overtake IN's population
* UT will definitely pass the 3 million
* AR could hit 3 million too (but much more likely that it will be in 2017)
* NV will overtake KS

---

* TX will remain the state with the biggest numerical gain (+450k)
* FL and CA will follow with +350k each
* WA might actually become the 4th fastest growing state numerically
* GA and NC still have steady high growth (+130K each)
* CO and AZ will be around +100K each
* OR probably picked up some speed (+70K)
* The 10th slot will go to SC (+65K)

---

In terms of % growth, a couple states will match themselves for 1st place because I guess ND's growth will fall back a bit to 1.5%

CO, NV, FL, UT, TX and DC are likely to grow between 1.7 and 2% each.

Hard to say who comes out on top ...

---

In general, births in the US dropped by 1% last year while deaths increased by 3.5% - resulting in a lower natural increase.

The big unknown is the immigration balance.

In general I believe the US population is up a bit less than last year (2.45 million vs. 2.51 million), but if the migration surplus was higher that could also change.

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White Trash
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« Reply #227 on: December 17, 2016, 12:02:35 PM »

Surprised that PA might overtake IL. Is all this growth in urban areas?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #228 on: December 17, 2016, 12:23:54 PM »

Surprised that PA might overtake IL. Is all this growth in urban areas?

Mostly, yes.

And the suburban areas in the South-East.

The areas which swung heavily to Trump are losing population fast. The light-blue areas and the red ones, which swung slightly to Hillary, are having modest population gains:



citypopulation.de has a nice clickable map of population changes by county:

https://www.citypopulation.de/php/usa-census-admin.php
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #229 on: December 17, 2016, 12:27:31 PM »

At least as of a couple years ago, literally the only places in IL with any growth were some north and northwest Chicago suburbs, some Peoria suburbs, Bloomington-Normal and Champaign (growing like crazy, not necessarily in population terms, but in redevelopment and revitalization). Sad
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jimrtex
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« Reply #230 on: December 18, 2016, 02:38:10 AM »

I don't see a total collapse in ND.

Maybe down to +1% from the previous year's 2% (when it was still the fastest growing state in the US, even though oil prices already went down).

ND still has much more births than deaths and some people are still moving there, so probably no total collapse ...
They'll take their children with them when they move.

Probably a silly thing for me to post ... but some families may stay put and wait for higher oil prices rather than moving out of the state. Some might also have moved to bigger ND cities who are less dependent on oil and gas in the meantime ...
Rig count:

June 2014: 170 (and had been around that range for 3 years, and would be for another 1/2 year).
June 2015: 77 (55% drop in 6 months). You may hang on now.
June 2016: 24

A lot of people would be moving in for opportunities. As workers take jobs on rigs, other employers have to push up wages, motels might be built, people hired in truck rental agencies, etc. Some people would move from Fargo and Grand Forks, and rent a trailer, but others would move from Rapid City and Gillette, and beyond.

If you built a motel, and have 80% vacancy, you're going to let everyone go, and pay the others minimum wages, as you try to hang on.

The timing is right for July 2016 to have 0% growth. I'm not saying that it will go negative. It just won't have growth like before.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #231 on: December 18, 2016, 04:28:51 AM »

This will be interesting to see who's right ...

I'm still predicting some 0.8% to 1.5% growth for ND between 7/2015 and 7/2016.

Do we have any other indicator of people moving out of ND over the past year other than the fall of oil rigs ?

Did the overall ND economy collapse last year and in the first half of 2016 ?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #232 on: December 18, 2016, 10:58:49 AM »

This will be interesting to see who's right ...

I'm still predicting some 0.8% to 1.5% growth for ND between 7/2015 and 7/2016.

Do we have any other indicator of people moving out of ND over the past year other than the fall of oil rigs ?

Did the overall ND economy collapse last year and in the first half of 2016 ?
Budget shortfalls.

I found one article that said there was a small increase in school enrollment, as kindergartners entered the system. It also said rig workers tended to be 2-week on and 2-week off, and not necessarily from the state. I met a work who was on his way from Shreveport for a 2-week shift, and was getting 100 hours per week, which with overtime would be equivalent to 130 hours. But production workers were more local.

Another article used IRS data that showed the average taxpayer moving to North Dakota between 2014 and 2015 experienced a 26% increase in income, the highest in the country. All states other than California showed an improvement for in-movers. If you move to California, you will see a loss in income plus impossible housing costs.

North Dakota still has one of the lowest unemployment rates, but that may be because population matches employment opportunities. North Dakota can be miserable in winter (Williston has a forecast of wind chill of -55 F (-48 C).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #233 on: December 20, 2016, 10:29:12 AM »

North Dakota plummeted down to 0.1%, Utah was the fastest growing state, 8 states lost population (CT, IL, MS, NY, PA, VT, WV, and WY).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #234 on: December 20, 2016, 10:34:23 AM »

ND down to 0.1% growth, from 2.3% in the previous year.

Shocked
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #235 on: December 20, 2016, 10:35:35 AM »

Interesting that NY lost population ...

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Gass3268
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« Reply #236 on: December 20, 2016, 10:42:54 AM »

So much for New York not losing a congressional seat.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #237 on: December 20, 2016, 10:48:03 AM »

FL now has a higher domestic migration gain than TX ...

And NY has the worst domestic migration loss of all states (almost 200K people last year).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #238 on: December 20, 2016, 10:56:41 AM »

As a percentage of the state's population, OR had the biggest domestic migration gain of all states.

NY once again the worst loss.

When it comes to international migration though, DC, MA and NY had the biggest gains - MT had the smallest international gain.

When both domestic and international migration are combined, the results show that FL, NV and OR had the biggest gains, while WY, IL and ND had the biggest losses.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #239 on: December 20, 2016, 10:58:39 AM »

UT and ND had the highest birth rates last year, NH and ME the lowest.

UT also had the lowest death rate, WV the highest.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #240 on: December 20, 2016, 11:02:42 AM »

Despite ND's economic collapse over the past year, 3 states actually had a higher domestic outmigration rate than ND:

NY
IL
CT
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muon2
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« Reply #241 on: December 20, 2016, 11:10:19 AM »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2016 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 6 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

AL -1
AZ +1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

There is only one change since my projections last year. CA stays unchanged at 53 instead of adding a seat and FL gains 2 instead of 1 up to 29. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, TX-39, CA-53, AZ-10, and FL-29 (#435).
The next five in line are MT-2, AL-7, CA-54, VA-12, and MN-8.

An alternate projection could use just the last two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth for the rest of the decade. That model gives the same projection as the one above, with changes only in the order of the bubble seats.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #242 on: December 20, 2016, 11:15:35 AM »

Based on muon's model, states won by Trump would gain 2 EV after the 2020 Census, while Hillary states would lose 2.

Using Obama 2012, Obama states would lose 3, Romney states gain 3.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #243 on: December 20, 2016, 11:25:50 AM »

States with high population growth mostly trended to Hillary, while virtually all states that lost population last year (except IL) trended to Trump.

That is pretty similar to Austria: In regions with high population growth, the Green VdB did well - but (periphery) regions with slow growth or losses voted for Hofer.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #244 on: December 20, 2016, 12:02:03 PM »

If Austria were a US state, it would:

* be the 12th biggest state (after NJ - with 8.78 million people)
* have the 5th highest numerical population increase (after TX, FL, CA and WA - at 116.000 people)
* have the 11th highest percentage population growth (tied with SC at 1.35%)
* have the 4th lowest birth rate (9.9/1000, after NH, ME and VT)
* rank 21st when it comes to the death rate (9.0/1000)
* have the 4th highest migration surplus (tied with WA)
* have the highest international migration surplus
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Virginiá
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« Reply #245 on: December 20, 2016, 12:33:22 PM »

If Austria were a US state, it would:

* be the 12th biggest state (after NJ - with 8.78 million people)
* have the 5th highest numerical population increase (after TX, FL, CA and WA - at 116.000 people)
* have the 11th highest percentage population growth (tied with SC at 1.35%)
* have the 4th lowest birth rate (9.9/1000, after NH, ME and VT)
* rank 21st when it comes to the death rate (9.0/1000)
* have the 4th highest migration surplus (tied with WA)
* have the highest international migration surplus

I'd also like to add:

* 14th largest clustering of people around Tender's house, particularly the basement area.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #246 on: December 20, 2016, 02:00:03 PM »

Is there any set date when the county estimates come out?
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muon2
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« Reply #247 on: December 20, 2016, 02:58:46 PM »

Is there any set date when the county estimates come out?

They come out in March, I don't know if there's a public date yet.
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LLR
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« Reply #248 on: December 20, 2016, 04:13:44 PM »

NY losing population? Sad!

Any reason why, though?
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muon2
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« Reply #249 on: December 20, 2016, 04:48:32 PM »

NY losing population? Sad!

Any reason why, though?

Here are the relevant components:
Births +237K
Deaths -161K
Natural increase +76K

International migration +118K
Domestic migration -191K
Net migration -73K

Total population change -2K

Note that's the sum of natural change and migration is a 3K increase not the -2K decrease that's being reported. According to the CB the change "includes a residual. This residual represents the change in population that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component. See Population Estimates Terms and Definitions at http://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/glossary.html."

In any case the largest factor in the decline in NY is the net migration to other states.
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