Census population estimates 2011-2019
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  Census population estimates 2011-2019
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 180292 times)
Torie
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« Reply #175 on: December 22, 2015, 10:07:39 AM »

How close is NY to the cusp given your latest projections? I ask, because my little CD will have a very new design given the shape of the state and where I am, if it loses a CD. It will become a much more suburban CD. And Nolan in MN-08 will be happy if MN loses a CD. His CD per your rules is slated to become more Dem as it loses Pub areas on its south end.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #176 on: December 22, 2015, 10:23:07 AM »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2015 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 3 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate.

4-1/4 ?
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muon2
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« Reply #177 on: December 22, 2015, 10:32:27 AM »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2015 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 3 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate.

4-1/4 ?

fixed: 5 1/4
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muon2
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« Reply #178 on: December 22, 2015, 10:37:41 AM »

How close is NY to the cusp given your latest projections? I ask, because my little CD will have a very new design given the shape of the state and where I am, if it loses a CD. It will become a much more suburban CD. And Nolan in MN-08 will be happy if MN loses a CD. His CD per your rules is slated to become more Dem as it loses Pub areas on its south end.

NY would need about 300K more people than it is currently on track for by 2020. Alternatively there needs t be a significant slow down in the fast growing states, much like the Great Recession kept AZ from going to 10 last time.

BTW if I only use the last two years to make my projection, CA won't gain but FL will gain 2.
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #179 on: December 22, 2015, 12:18:37 PM »
« Edited: December 22, 2015, 12:20:23 PM by d32123 »

Nice to see Oregon gaining a seat in your projection.  Smiley

Also didn't realize that Montana was so close to gaining a second district.  It looks like the new Rhode Island At-Large would take Montana's place for largest single district by population.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #180 on: December 22, 2015, 12:54:49 PM »

In addition to FL breaking 20 million, let's see how my estimates turned out:

Also, NC will break 10 Mio. people for the first time. TRUE

AZ will overtake MA. TRUE

TN could overtake IN, but probably not this year but next. TRUE (next year)

MD will break 6 Mio. people for the first time. TRUE

SC will overtake AL. TRUE

OR will break 4 Mio. people for the first time. TRUE

MS and AR might break 3 Mio. people for the first time (but it's more likely that UT does before them). Semi-true: MS and AR did not break 3 million, but UT overtook them with 2.996 million and definitely is above 3 million already.

NH could pass ME. TRUE

Puerto Rico could drop below 3.5 Mio. people. TRUE
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #181 on: December 22, 2015, 01:02:09 PM »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2015 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 5 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

AL -1
AZ +1
CA +1
CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

There a number of changes since my projections last year. AL is down, AZ is up, OR is up and VA isn't up. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are CA-53, TX-39, OR-6, CA-54, and AZ-10 (#435).
The next five in line are FL-29, AL-7, VA-12, NY-27, MT-3.

So, Obama-states are projected to lose 7 EV (IL, MI, MN, NY, OH, PA, RI) - while gaining 4 (CA, CO, FL, OR) - for a net loss of 3 EV.

Romney-states gain 5 (3TX, AZ, NC), while losing 2 (AL, WV) - for a net gain of 3 EV.
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muon2
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« Reply #182 on: December 22, 2015, 01:05:39 PM »

Yeah, it would be quite an upset if anyone could compete with WV as biggest loser.

Last year IL lost more in total pop than WV.

Not percentage wise, and no matter what travails Illinois may be facing they don't come anywhere close to the demographic and public health problems WV  has.

IL lost more this year than last, though WV slightly edges IL in percent loss.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #183 on: December 22, 2015, 01:59:06 PM »

The national and state "components of population change" are also interesting:

The US had 3.986 million births last year and 2.625 million deaths (natural increase = 1.361 million).

It also had an international migration surplus of 1.151 million - for a total growth of 2.512 million people (+0.8%).

That means ca. 54% of the population growth came from natural increase and 46% from a migration gain.

...

Looking at the states, CA/NY/FL/TX/NJ were the biggest magnets for international migrants - while basically no person from abroad moved to WY/MT/VT/WV/ME.

The 10 states with the biggest domestic migration (= people moving between the states) gains were FL, TX, CO, AZ, SC, WA, NC, OR, GA and NV.

The 10 states with the biggest domestic migration losses were NY, IL, CA, NJ, PA, MI, OH, CT, MD and VA.

Only 2 states had more deaths than births: WV and ME.

Puerto Rico's population dropped by more than 60.000 people (or 1.7%)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #184 on: December 22, 2015, 02:13:37 PM »

Also, what has not been mentioned so far:

North Dakota actually remained the fastest-growing state between 2014-15, despite the downturn in the oil/gas sector in the past year.

ND grew by 2.3%, followed by CO/DC/NV (each +1.9%)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #185 on: December 22, 2015, 02:22:05 PM »

And not only that: ND also had the biggest domestic migration gains (= most people moving into a state from other states) per capita last year.

ND gained 10.000 people from other states in the past year - giving it a 13.2/1000 net domestic migration gain.

FL and CO followed far behind with 10/1000.

The state with the worst loss (= most people moving away to other states) was actually Alaska - which had almost 8.000 people leaving for other states and giving the state a -10.4/1000 net domestic migration loss.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #186 on: December 22, 2015, 02:26:34 PM »

Also, does anyone know why VA turned from a magnet for US citizens from other states between 2000-2010 to being in the top-10 of states with the most Americans leaving to other states ?
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muon2
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« Reply #187 on: December 22, 2015, 04:00:28 PM »

Also, does anyone know why VA turned from a magnet for US citizens from other states between 2000-2010 to being in the top-10 of states with the most Americans leaving to other states ?

During the Great Recession the government sector was one of the few growth areas, particularly as driven by the stimulus. That may be a factor in VA. As the rest of the economy has picked up, VA doesn't stand out anymore. It would be consistent with my projection making a seat gain less likely than last year.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #188 on: December 22, 2015, 05:53:01 PM »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2015 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 5 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

AL -1
AZ +1
CA +1
CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

There a number of changes since my projections last year. AL is down, AZ is up, OR is up and VA isn't up. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are CA-53, TX-39, OR-6, CA-54, and AZ-10 (#435).
The next five in line are FL-29, AL-7, VA-12, NY-27, MT-3.

Do you mean MT-2 here?  Or WV-3?
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muon2
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« Reply #189 on: December 22, 2015, 09:51:32 PM »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2015 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 5 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

AL -1
AZ +1
CA +1
CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

There a number of changes since my projections last year. AL is down, AZ is up, OR is up and VA isn't up. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are CA-53, TX-39, OR-6, CA-54, and AZ-10 (#435).
The next five in line are FL-29, AL-7, VA-12, NY-27, MT-3.

Do you mean MT-2 here?  Or WV-3?

MT-2. Fixed.
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cinyc
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« Reply #190 on: December 22, 2015, 09:59:59 PM »

Also, what has not been mentioned so far:

North Dakota actually remained the fastest-growing state between 2014-15, despite the downturn in the oil/gas sector in the past year.

ND grew by 2.3%, followed by CO/DC/NV (each +1.9%)

North Dakota's growth rate from 2014-15 was about the same as the growth rate from 2013-14.  So much for growth slowing down.

The only state to lose population since the 2010 Census is West Virginia.  (Puerto Rico has also lost over 250,000 residents over that time period.)  Maine and Vermont grew by less than 1,000 people over that time frame.  Meanwhile, Texas added more residents than live in many states - over 2.3 million.  

I think D.C. is actually the second-fastest growing state or territory over that time period, behind North Dakota.  If North Dakota growth starts to fall soon, D.C. might end up being the fastest-growing jurisdiction this decade.
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tschandler
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« Reply #191 on: December 22, 2015, 11:42:10 PM »
« Edited: December 22, 2015, 11:47:42 PM by tschandler »

Alabama is intriguing.  Granted my experience is limited to North Alabama (the Black belt may certainly be shrinking) but in our rural area of Northeast Alabama we are experiencing solid growth.   I have new neighbors/students from California, Oregon, Texas, Alaska, Tennessee, Florida, and Nevada.   It is known that rural Alabama is a combination of what rural Texas and Florida were a generation ago (cheap open farmland and people retiring because Alabama doesn't tax retirement/social security).  

And Huntsville is rapidly growing.  
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #192 on: December 23, 2015, 12:45:52 AM »

Yeah, it would be quite an upset if anyone could compete with WV as biggest loser.

Last year IL lost more in total pop than WV.

Not percentage wise, and no matter what travails Illinois may be facing they don't come anywhere close to the demographic and public health problems WV  has.

IL lost more this year than last, though WV slightly edges IL in percent loss.

IL certainly gave it the old college try
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #193 on: December 23, 2015, 01:12:14 AM »


No, no it's not.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #194 on: December 23, 2015, 01:22:03 AM »

Nice to see Oregon gaining a seat in your projection.  Smiley

Also didn't realize that Montana was so close to gaining a second district.  It looks like the new Rhode Island At-Large would take Montana's place for largest single district by population.

Montana has actually had some spillover from the drilling boom in adjacent states.  It may struggle sustaining any growth going forward, especially in the Eastern part of the state.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #195 on: December 23, 2015, 01:28:52 AM »

Also, what's with New Mexico ?

It even lost population last year, while most western states saw high growth - even the Plain states did better than NM.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #196 on: December 23, 2015, 01:32:27 AM »

Also, what's with New Mexico ?

It even lost population last year, while most western states saw high growth - even the Plain states did better than NM.

I guess it's the Mississippi of the Rockies.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #197 on: December 23, 2015, 01:41:56 AM »

Here's a map of states which have all 3 factors:

A) a natural increase (more births than deaths)
B) a positive international migration balance
C) a positive domestic migration balance (more people coming from other states than moving out)

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jimrtex
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« Reply #198 on: December 23, 2015, 04:22:08 AM »

Alabama is intriguing.  Granted my experience is limited to North Alabama (the Black belt may certainly be shrinking) but in our rural area of Northeast Alabama we are experiencing solid growth.   I have new neighbors/students from California, Oregon, Texas, Alaska, Tennessee, Florida, and Nevada.   It is known that rural Alabama is a combination of what rural Texas and Florida were a generation ago (cheap open farmland and people retiring because Alabama doesn't tax retirement/social security).  

And Huntsville is rapidly growing.  
If fractional representation was awarded, Alabama would lose 0.299 representatives. It in essence dropped from 7 to 6, due to rounding.

The national growth rate (2010 to 2020) is 8.0%, while for Alabama is 3.2%.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #199 on: December 23, 2015, 04:55:06 AM »

If we were doing continuous reapportionment, Florida (28) and Oregon (6) would have gained a seat, and Illinois (17) and Michigan (13) would have lost a seat. These would be in addition to previous gains in for Texas (37) and North Carolina (14), and losses for Minnesota (7) and Pennsylvania (17).

In Michigan this would could result in the Detroit UCC adding Washtenaw or Genesee to keep 6 districts.

2014 projected gains: CA, CO, FL, NC, TX (+3), VA
2015 projected gains: AZ, CA, CO, FL, NC, OR TX (+3)

So not only is Oregon projected to now add a seat, it has already reached the level needed.

2014 projected losses: AL, IL, MI, MN, OH, PA, RI, WV
2015 projected losses: AL, IL, MI, MN, NY, OH, PA, RI, WV

While it now appears that New York will extend a 7-decade string of losing districts, this will be the first without multiple losses.
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