Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Skill and Chance]

Do you all think Minnesota has a good chance to regain the seat it lost in 2020 at the time of the 2030 census?

Yes and I also think it'll pass Wisconsin in population so MN will gain back an 8th seat even as WI loses one.

Which states are in most danger of losing seats in 2031 if current growth/loss continues?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Do you all think Minnesota has a good chance to regain the seat it lost in 2020 at the time of the 2030 census?

Yes and I also think it'll pass Wisconsin in population so MN will gain back an 8th seat even as WI loses one.

Which states are in most danger of losing seats in 2031 if current growth/loss continues?

New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Connecticut, maybe California.

[DINGO Joe]

If it hasn't been noted yet, it should be noted that the estimates don't incorporate any data from the Census done this year.  It merely utilizes the same tools it has all decade.

Having said that, the slow down in natural population growth can easily be viewed by the CDC/NCHS monthly provisional numbers for births-deaths(which I'm sure is used by the Census for estimates)

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

Of course the first wave of COVID becomes quite noticeable in the APR-JUN months especially in the Ground Zero states. 


Quite a few states will go natural growth negative this year, I guess the most surprising being Florida (which probably would have done it without the COVID or else they're way understating their COVID deaths).  They really are quite dependent on importing old people.

Looks like Louisiana and Mississippi are poised for multi-year declines in population with Alabama a couple of steps behind.

[Biden his time]

Do you all think Minnesota has a good chance to regain the seat it lost in 2020 at the time of the 2030 census?

Yes and I also think it'll pass Wisconsin in population so MN will gain back an 8th seat even as WI loses one.

Which states are in most danger of losing seats in 2031 if current growth/loss continues?

New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Connecticut, maybe California.

and a little bit of Alabama too.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

New York is losing population, but it is still the place for a lot of people.

NY has the lowest homeownership rate in the country, home prices should be lower, but NY is a hard place to buy a home, especially NYC/LI/Westchester suburbs.

Upstate NY, not so bad---

Some people say that NYers are moving to red states like GA, NC, and bringing their liberal politics with them.

We will see.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/12/23/new-york-population-decline-coronavirus-house-seats/4023477001/

People from NJ/NY have been moving in large numbers to FL for decades, yet FL is trending right. There always huge amounts of Yankees fans at any FL baseball game.

[Suburbia]

New York is losing population, but it is still the place for a lot of people.

NY has the lowest homeownership rate in the country, home prices should be lower, but NY is a hard place to buy a home, especially NYC/LI/Westchester suburbs.

Upstate NY, not so bad---

Some people say that NYers are moving to red states like GA, NC, and bringing their liberal politics with them.

We will see.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/12/23/new-york-population-decline-coronavirus-house-seats/4023477001/

People from NJ/NY have been moving in large numbers to FL for decades, yet FL is trending right. There always huge amounts of Yankees fans at any FL baseball game.

Yes, they are George Steinbrenner leftovers. In Florida, the Rays and Marlins are not even popular. Yankees, Mets, Cardinals are all popular because those are the fans from the NY/NJ/MO area

[Tender Branson]

It looks like 3.7 million births this year in the US and 3.2 to 3.3 million deaths.

Birth rate: 1.1%
Death rate: 0.95 to 1%

That would be the lowest birth rate and the highest death rate on record, but still a natural balance of +400.000 to +500.000, but down from about 1 million in recent years and down from +1.5 million in the mid-90s to mid-00s.

[Tender Branson]

The 10 fastest growing states between mid-2019 and mid-2020 were:

2.1% ID
1.8% AZ
1.5% NV
1.5% UT
1.3% TX
1.2% SC
1.1% FL
1.1% WA
1.0% DE
1.0% MT

The 10 fastest declining states between mid-2019 and mid-2020 were:

-0.2% CA
-0.2% MI
-0.3% CT
-0.3% LA
-0.3% AK
-0.4% MS
-0.6% WV
-0.6% HI
-0.6% IL
-0.7% NY

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/estimates-population-housing-units.html

Maybe a result of wealthy NYers and preppers moving to ID and MT because they think the apocalypse is coming ?

[Skill and Chance]

The 10 fastest growing states between mid-2019 and mid-2020 were:

2.1% ID
1.8% AZ
1.5% NV
1.5% UT
1.3% TX
1.2% SC
1.1% FL
1.1% WA
1.0% DE
1.0% MT

The 10 fastest declining states between mid-2019 and mid-2020 were:

-0.2% CA
-0.2% MI
-0.3% CT
-0.3% LA
-0.3% AK
-0.4% MS
-0.6% WV
-0.6% HI
-0.6% IL
-0.7% NY

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/estimates-population-housing-units.html

Maybe a result of wealthy NYers and preppers moving to ID and MT because they think the apocalypse is coming ?

The biggest decliners include some states that have been stable in congressional apportionment for a while.  How close are MS, HI, and CT to losing a CD?

[Skill and Chance]

Normally the Census would be releasing the actual 2020 Census apportionment data next week, and not the Jul 1, 2020 estimates. Due to the expected delay in the release of the apportionment data, we can look at these estimates that do not include any 2020 Census data. It will be interesting to compare this to the actual Census population when they are released.

So, here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used these July 2020 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This accounts for a 10 and a quarter year period between the 2010 Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -2
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

AL and NY have switched seats compared to last year, so that AL would have no change and NY would lose 2 seats. I tested the possibility that inclusion of the Covid-19 fatalities in NY between April 1 and July 1 would affect the result. I added the July 1 NY fatality count to my April 1 projection, and it made NY closer to AL but did not change the overall projection.

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, CA-52, FL-29, TX-39, and AL-7 (#435).
The next five in line are NY-26, OH-16, MN-8, CA-53, and VA-12.

What numbers are we talking about for AL and NY to switch back with this estimate vis a vis the actual census figures? Is it 5,000 people or 15,000 people? Yes I know the final numbers for all the states matter.

On the NY side I added 32K to see what the effect of the pandemic would be on these July estimates. It cut the margin with AL in half, so another 32K would get it ahead on April 1. On the AL side if they have 8K fewer, assuming the 32K added to NY for covid then NY would get seat 435. These projections assume the same relative overseas military populations. In 2010 that adjustment was 23K for AL and 43K for NY. Census 2020 is changing this so that the adjustment I described would apply to those stationed outside the US, but those deployed outside the US while stationed in the US will count at their station address. I don't know how that split is for different states.

Also, how much of a sure thing is TX-39 with the higher than usual uncertainty this year?

[muon2]

Normally the Census would be releasing the actual 2020 Census apportionment data next week, and not the Jul 1, 2020 estimates. Due to the expected delay in the release of the apportionment data, we can look at these estimates that do not include any 2020 Census data. It will be interesting to compare this to the actual Census population when they are released.

So, here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used these July 2020 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This accounts for a 10 and a quarter year period between the 2010 Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -2
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

AL and NY have switched seats compared to last year, so that AL would have no change and NY would lose 2 seats. I tested the possibility that inclusion of the Covid-19 fatalities in NY between April 1 and July 1 would affect the result. I added the July 1 NY fatality count to my April 1 projection, and it made NY closer to AL but did not change the overall projection.

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, CA-52, FL-29, TX-39, and AL-7 (#435).
The next five in line are NY-26, OH-16, MN-8, CA-53, and VA-12.

What numbers are we talking about for AL and NY to switch back with this estimate vis a vis the actual census figures? Is it 5,000 people or 15,000 people? Yes I know the final numbers for all the states matter.

On the NY side I added 32K to see what the effect of the pandemic would be on these July estimates. It cut the margin with AL in half, so another 32K would get it ahead on April 1. On the AL side if they have 8K fewer, assuming the 32K added to NY for covid then NY would get seat 435. These projections assume the same relative overseas military populations. In 2010 that adjustment was 23K for AL and 43K for NY. Census 2020 is changing this so that the adjustment I described would apply to those stationed outside the US, but those deployed outside the US while stationed in the US will count at their station address. I don't know how that split is for different states.

Also, how much of a sure thing is TX-39 with the higher than usual uncertainty this year?

It's seat number 434 in this projection of mine. There are a lot of hard to count populations in TX and this was a tough year for counting in states that did not put in extra resources. It's not hard to imagine that undercounts of the Latino population result in TX missing out on its third additional seat.

[Tender Branson]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

[Non Swing Voter]

if the new numbers aren't out til February or later then doesn't that mean Trump's little scheme to steal congressional apportionment based on citizenship is screwed?  presumably then Biden could make the decision whether or not to include non-citizens as it's been done in the past.

[StateBoiler]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.

State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

[MaxQue]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.

State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

Well, the issue there is a sloppily written law and/or constitution with no flexibility.

[Tender Branson]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.

State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).

It’s Indiana’s problem.

IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

[jimrtex]

if the new numbers aren't out til February or later then doesn't that mean Trump's little scheme to steal congressional apportionment based on citizenship is screwed?  presumably then Biden could make the decision whether or not to include non-citizens as it's been done in the past.

The most likely illegal aliens that can be identified are:

(1) Persons in ICE detention facilities.
(2) Persons in final deportation orders.
(3) DACA enrollees.

I suspect that they may end up with those in ICE detention facilities that might cost Texas its 39th representative.

[StateBoiler]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.

State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).

It’s Indiana’s problem.

IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.

They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

[MaxQue]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.

State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).

It’s Indiana’s problem.

IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.

They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

Will you send the bill to Chinese government for any extra sittings caused by COVID in 2020?

[Sol]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.

State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).

It’s Indiana’s problem.

IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.

They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?

[jimrtex]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.

State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

Under the original Census planning, the apportionment counts were due by the end of December, and that redistricting data by April 1, 2021. Both these deadlines are in statute.

When the Census Bureau could not do field enumeration they came up with an alternative plan that would slip those back about 3 or 4 months. These plans assumed that Congress would adjust the statutory limits.

When Congress failed to act, the Census Bureau came up with the so-called Replan that would attempt to complete processing by the deadlines in statute. The district court in California interfered with this plan until finally stopped by the SCOTUS.

In the past, the Census Bureau has endeavored to release redistricting data earlier for states with earlier deadlines. So that it might come out in February rather than on March 31. I think the Census Bureau has released their 2020 Census geography, so that state legislature staff can be loading up the data other than population.

My guess is that the apportionment numbers will be out around the end of this month, and that the redistricting data will be out by May.

This might result in some states calling a special session for redistricting. Practically anybody would have standing to file an equal protection lawsuit against the state of Indiana for failing to adjust legislature and congressional districts (e.g. Democratic Front Organizations For Fair Redistricting v. Eric Holcomb). The Indiana AG will claim that the suit is not ripe, and the court will withhold acting on the lawsuit until it is absolutely necessary, probably November 2021.

Holcomb will call a special session. It will be easy to do congressional redistricting, you just need to shift some population around maintaining IN-1 and IN-7 as Democratic vote sinks, and taking care to not make IN-2 and IN-5 competitive.

Legislative redistricting may be harder. With 100 House districts you will end up shifting districts around. If you can find an incumbent ready to retire, you may be able to divide up his district. But in other cases, you will end up pissing off incumbents who will suspect all kinds of nefarious plots. If the legislature gets into trouble, they will move the primary, and call another special session. There is zero chance the legislature won't get it done.

The DFFOFR will add a bunch of claims based on the VRA which the district court will eventually dismiss and the SCOTUS will not take up.

[StateBoiler]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.

State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).

It’s Indiana’s problem.

IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.

They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?

On December 31st Tender Branson stated in the census thread on page 51 that the Census Bureau said the data quality was high as he posted a press release from them saying as much. If releasing now is a rush job with messed up census data, then the press release was incredibly premature.

[Tender Branson]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.

State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).

It’s Indiana’s problem.

IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.

They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?

On December 31st Tender Branson stated in the census thread on page 51 that the Census Bureau said the data quality was high as he posted a press release from them saying as much. If releasing now is a rush job with messed up census data, then the press release was incredibly premature.

Why ?

They can assess data quality on what has been processed so far ...

Processing the data and quality checks take 5 months after completing the Census.

They were only ready in October this time, instead of the summer.

[jimrtex]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.

State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).

It’s Indiana’s problem.

IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.

They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?

On December 31st Tender Branson stated in the census thread on page 51 that the Census Bureau said the data quality was high as he posted a press release from them saying as much. If releasing now is a rush job with messed up census data, then the press release was incredibly premature.

Why ?

They can assess data quality on what has been processed so far ...

Processing the data and quality checks take 5 months after completing the Census.

They were only ready in October this time, instead of the summer.

They have faster computers, and are reducing weekend down time. More of the data is digital rather than digitized from paper forms stained with jelly and coffee and unidentified substances. They can also defer some processing, and didn't have to do the resurvey, where they essentially go back and do a census of a sample of households.

[Tender Branson]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.

State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).

It’s Indiana’s problem.

IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.

They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?

On December 31st Tender Branson stated in the census thread on page 51 that the Census Bureau said the data quality was high as he posted a press release from them saying as much. If releasing now is a rush job with messed up census data, then the press release was incredibly premature.

Why ?

They can assess data quality on what has been processed so far ...

Processing the data and quality checks take 5 months after completing the Census.

They were only ready in October this time, instead of the summer.

They have faster computers, and are reducing weekend down time. More of the data is digital rather than digitized from paper forms stained with jelly and coffee and unidentified substances. They can also defer some processing, and didn't have to do the resurvey, where they essentially go back and do a census of a sample of households.

True.

But they have other problems that were not the case in 2000 or 2010, slowing down the publication of the numbers:

* ongoing sabotage attempts by Trump
* a pandemic, which cuts staff and work hours due to quarantine of staff, protection measures
* Christmas, New Year and other holidays in the fall

Processing census data in 2000 and 2010 started in the summer of those years, there were hardly any holidays.

Because data collection ended in late October this year, we can still expect 4 months of data processing despite better IT systems because of the factors above.

Mid-February to End-March looks most likely for the release.