Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Tender Branson]

What does everyone think the latest estimate for California means:

[tweet]

Are these estimates usually accurate?

CA produces its own estimates 2x per year, by their Dept. of Finance.

They use different methods, for example drivers licenses, whereas the US Census Bureau uses tax data for migrations between the 50 states.

Historically, the US Census Bureau estimates were closer to the Census Count. Last time, the CA Dept. of Finance estimates were about 1.5 million too high.

This time, the estimates from the CB for CA and their own DOF estmimates are not that far apart though ...

[Mike Thick]

https://twitter.com/2024delegates/status/1341423831592919040?s=21

[Tender Branson]

Here are the full mid-2020 population estimates by state, released today:

329.5 million (+1.2 million vs. last year, +0.4%)

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2020/state/totals/nst-est2020.xlsx

Based on those estimates, the April 1 Census count should come in at around 329.2 million.

[Skill and Chance]

So New York takes a second loss instead of Alabama, and Florida's second gain is confirmed.  Overall, Republicans did about as well as they possibly could have. 

[muon2]

Normally the Census would be releasing the actual 2020 Census apportionment data next week, and not the Jul 1, 2020 estimates. Due to the expected delay in the release of the apportionment data, we can look at these estimates that do not include any 2020 Census data. It will be interesting to compare this to the actual Census population when they are released.

So, here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used these July 2020 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This accounts for a 10 and a quarter year period between the 2010 Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -2
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

AL and NY have switched seats compared to last year, so that AL would have no change and NY would lose 2 seats. I tested the possibility that inclusion of the Covid-19 fatalities in NY between April 1 and July 1 would affect the result. I added the July 1 NY fatality count to my April 1 projection, and it made NY closer to AL but did not change the overall projection.

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, CA-52, FL-29, TX-39, and AL-7 (#435).
The next five in line are NY-26, OH-16, MN-8, CA-53, and VA-12.

[Skill and Chance]

Normally the Census would be releasing the actual 2020 Census apportionment data next week, and not the Jul 1, 2020 estimates. Due to the expected delay in the release of the apportionment data, we can look at these estimates that do not include any 2020 Census data. It will be interesting to compare this to the actual Census population when they are released.

So, here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used these July 2020 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This accounts for a 10 and a quarter year period between the 2010 Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -2
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

AL and NY have switched seats compared to last year, so that AL would have no change and NY would lose 2 seats. I tested the possibility that inclusion of the Covid-19 fatalities in NY between April 1 and July 1 would affect the result. I added the July 1 NY fatality count to my April 1 projection, and it made NY closer to AL but did not change the overall projection.

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, CA-52, FL-29, TX-39, and AL-7 (#435).
The next five in line are NY-26, OH-16, MN-8, CA-53, and VA-14.

Hmmm... so VA-12 could be back in the game for 2030?  It's interesting how countercyclical VA is. 

[Tender Branson]

Normally the Census would be releasing the actual 2020 Census apportionment data next week, and not the Jul 1, 2020 estimates. Due to the expected delay in the release of the apportionment data, we can look at these estimates that do not include any 2020 Census data. It will be interesting to compare this to the actual Census population when they are released.

So, here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used these July 2020 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This accounts for a 10 and a quarter year period between the 2010 Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -2
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

AL and NY have switched seats compared to last year, so that AL would have no change and NY would lose 2 seats. I tested the possibility that inclusion of the Covid-19 fatalities in NY between April 1 and July 1 would affect the result. I added the July 1 NY fatality count to my April 1 projection, and it made NY closer to AL but did not change the overall projection.

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, CA-52, FL-29, TX-39, and AL-7 (#435).
The next five in line are NY-26, OH-16, MN-8, CA-53, and VA-12.

Using your apportionment, Biden states would lose 5 EV, Trump states gain 5.

Biden would have won 301-237 (retroactively).

[Biden his time]

This is also interesting because this is the first time California has ever lost population, having gone down by 69,532 people (between July 01, 2019 and July 01, 2020).

[Tender Branson]

IL it seems had a higher population decline last year than WV, at -80.000, or -0.7%

WV was only at -0.5%

[Biden his time]

Texas, Florida, and Arizona all experienced accelerations in their population growth as well, interestingly.

[Torie]

Normally the Census would be releasing the actual 2020 Census apportionment data next week, and not the Jul 1, 2020 estimates. Due to the expected delay in the release of the apportionment data, we can look at these estimates that do not include any 2020 Census data. It will be interesting to compare this to the actual Census population when they are released.

So, here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used these July 2020 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This accounts for a 10 and a quarter year period between the 2010 Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -2
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

AL and NY have switched seats compared to last year, so that AL would have no change and NY would lose 2 seats. I tested the possibility that inclusion of the Covid-19 fatalities in NY between April 1 and July 1 would affect the result. I added the July 1 NY fatality count to my April 1 projection, and it made NY closer to AL but did not change the overall projection.

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, CA-52, FL-29, TX-39, and AL-7 (#435).
The next five in line are NY-26, OH-16, MN-8, CA-53, and VA-12.

What numbers are we talking about for AL and NY to switch back with this estimate vis a vis the actual census figures? Is it 5,000 people or 15,000 people? Yes I know the final numbers for all the states matter.

[muon2]

Normally the Census would be releasing the actual 2020 Census apportionment data next week, and not the Jul 1, 2020 estimates. Due to the expected delay in the release of the apportionment data, we can look at these estimates that do not include any 2020 Census data. It will be interesting to compare this to the actual Census population when they are released.

So, here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used these July 2020 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This accounts for a 10 and a quarter year period between the 2010 Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -2
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

AL and NY have switched seats compared to last year, so that AL would have no change and NY would lose 2 seats. I tested the possibility that inclusion of the Covid-19 fatalities in NY between April 1 and July 1 would affect the result. I added the July 1 NY fatality count to my April 1 projection, and it made NY closer to AL but did not change the overall projection.

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, CA-52, FL-29, TX-39, and AL-7 (#435).
The next five in line are NY-26, OH-16, MN-8, CA-53, and VA-12.

What numbers are we talking about for AL and NY to switch back with this estimate vis a vis the actual census figures? Is it 5,000 people or 15,000 people? Yes I know the final numbers for all the states matter.

On the NY side I added 32K to see what the effect of the pandemic would be on these July estimates. It cut the margin with AL in half, so another 32K would get it ahead on April 1. On the AL side if they have 8K fewer, assuming the 32K added to NY for covid then NY would get seat 435. These projections assume the same relative overseas military populations. In 2010 that adjustment was 23K for AL and 43K for NY. Census 2020 is changing this so that the adjustment I described would apply to those stationed outside the US, but those deployed outside the US while stationed in the US will count at their station address. I don't know how that split is for different states.

[Biden his time]

On a side note, one rank change did occur. Idaho's population surpassed West Virginia's.

[Brittain33]

Do we really believe North Dakota's population hasn't declined at all since its surge?

[muon2]

Do we really believe North Dakota's population hasn't declined at all since its surge?

Since 2015 its average growth rate is less than 0.3%/year. That's much slower than SD and less than other plains states other than KS (0.2%/year this decade).

[jimrtex]

Normally the Census would be releasing the actual 2020 Census apportionment data next week, and not the Jul 1, 2020 estimates. Due to the expected delay in the release of the apportionment data, we can look at these estimates that do not include any 2020 Census data. It will be interesting to compare this to the actual Census population when they are released.

So, here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used these July 2020 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This accounts for a 10 and a quarter year period between the 2010 Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -2
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

AL and NY have switched seats compared to last year, so that AL would have no change and NY would lose 2 seats. I tested the possibility that inclusion of the Covid-19 fatalities in NY between April 1 and July 1 would affect the result. I added the July 1 NY fatality count to my April 1 projection, and it made NY closer to AL but did not change the overall projection.

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, CA-52, FL-29, TX-39, and AL-7 (#435).
The next five in line are NY-26, OH-16, MN-8, CA-53, and VA-12.

I think the federal overseas population will be about half of what it was in 2010, even without the distinction between deployed and stationed. In 2010, 96% of the federal overseas population was military, with about 60% of that dependents.

The number stationed overseas is now under 200,000. Most are in areas where dependents can be resident (Europe, Japan, Korea). The share of dependents is likely about the same, with long-term trend towards career military (old enough to have acquired dependents), but perhaps balanced by long-term decline in marriages and child-bearing.

I think I will just use 3/4 of the change from 2019 to 2020 for my April 1, 2020 estimate.

What would you use for 2030 projections? I'm thinking perhaps getting a growth rate from 2015 to 2020.

[Skill and Chance]

On a side note, one rank change did occur. Idaho's population surpassed West Virginia's.

ID-03 here we come in 2031?  They have a commission so an all-Boise seat is basically assured.   

[muon2]

I think the federal overseas population will be about half of what it was in 2010, even without the distinction between deployed and stationed. In 2010, 96% of the federal overseas population was military, with about 60% of that dependents.

The number stationed overseas is now under 200,000. Most are in areas where dependents can be resident (Europe, Japan, Korea). The share of dependents is likely about the same, with long-term trend towards career military (old enough to have acquired dependents), but perhaps balanced by long-term decline in marriages and child-bearing.

I think I will just use 3/4 of the change from 2019 to 2020 for my April 1, 2020 estimate.

What would you use for 2030 projections? I'm thinking perhaps getting a growth rate from 2015 to 2020.

Extending the recent growth rate is one approach. However, I suspect that there will be long-term sociological changes due to the pandemic. The rapid shift to remote work won't all go back to pre-2020 levels. That will likely change where people choose to live in ways that are not captured by rates in the last decade. I think it may take 5 years to clearly see any new trends that will cause shifts to the 2030 forecasts.

[Torie]

Thank you for your skilled number crunching Muon2.

[Annatar]

Population decline in New York and Illinois is now approaching levels you see in Eastern Europe, both states lost over 0.6% of their population in 2019-20, kind of amazing NY once had 45 districts and now will have 25 after 2020, just a complete collapse in the post ww2 era.

[Biden his time]

Do you all think Minnesota has a good chance to regain the seat it lost in 2020 at the time of the 2030 census?

[muon2]

Do you all think Minnesota has a good chance to regain the seat it lost in 2020 at the time of the 2030 census?

MN has had a growth rate very close to the nation as a whole this decade. It was on the bubble in 2010 and it still on the bubble in 2020. If MN loses its 8th seat this cycle and continues to match or slightly exceed the national growth rate, they will stay on the bubble for an 8th seat in 2030.

[Suburbia]

New York is losing population, but it is still the place for a lot of people.

NY has the lowest homeownership rate in the country, home prices should be lower, but NY is a hard place to buy a home, especially NYC/LI/Westchester suburbs.

Upstate NY, not so bad---

Some people say that NYers are moving to red states like GA, NC, and bringing their liberal politics with them.

We will see.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/12/23/new-york-population-decline-coronavirus-house-seats/4023477001/

[Skill and Chance]

Population decline in New York and Illinois is now approaching levels you see in Eastern Europe, both states lost over 0.6% of their population in 2019-20, kind of amazing NY once had 45 districts and now will have 25 after 2020, just a complete collapse in the post ww2 era.

How does it compare to the exodus from the Great Plains states during the 1930's and 40's?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Do you all think Minnesota has a good chance to regain the seat it lost in 2020 at the time of the 2030 census?

Yes and I also think it'll pass Wisconsin in population so MN will gain back an 8th seat even as WI loses one.