Census population estimates 2011-2019
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  Census population estimates 2011-2019
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 180319 times)
Kevinstat
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« Reply #775 on: May 16, 2020, 12:32:19 AM »

Does anyone know when in May the 2019 estimates at the municipal level are to come out?  Or will that even be in May as planned or will it be delayed due to COVID-19?  The March release of county-level estimates wasn't delayed, but those were likely pretty much finalized by the time things started getting crazy.

12:01 AM EDT, 21 May 2020.

Okay, thanks.
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cinyc
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« Reply #776 on: May 18, 2020, 07:14:21 AM »

Does anyone know when in May the 2019 estimates at the municipal level are to come out?  Or will that even be in May as planned or will it be delayed due to COVID-19?  The March release of county-level estimates wasn't delayed, but those were likely pretty much finalized by the time things started getting crazy.

12:01 AM EDT, 21 May 2020.


That’s when the press embargo will be lifted and the press kit released.

Usually, Census doesn’t release the actual data until the morning, around 10AM. We’ll see if this time is any different.

My interactive maps will be updated some time on Thursday.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #777 on: May 18, 2020, 11:39:08 AM »

Wonder what it takes to qualify as "media" these days.  If you were a representative of the Talk Elections Blog, would that qualify?
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cinyc
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« Reply #778 on: May 18, 2020, 02:18:54 PM »

Wonder what it takes to qualify as "media" these days.  If you were a representative of the Talk Elections Blog, would that qualify?

I don’t know, but I wouldn’t want to use my real name and would be worried about inadvertently violating the embargo.

I think the media gets access to the data tomorrow so they can write their stories midnight Thursday.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #779 on: May 19, 2020, 09:12:42 AM »

Wonder what it takes to qualify as "media" these days.  If you were a representative of the Talk Elections Blog, would that qualify?

Guidelines for Embargo Access to Media Embargo Site

The key would be the primary purpose of the website is dissemination of the news. Research and publication of election results might be considered news. Conceivably if Dave Leip actively participated with presenting two bylined stories per month, he might qualify.

Embargo access is granted to individuals, with the condition that they not share the data with colleagues. This would like disqualify anyone here.
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cinyc
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« Reply #780 on: May 20, 2020, 11:49:25 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2020, 11:53:03 PM by cinyc »

The 2019 city estimate press release is out:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/south-west-fastest-growing.html

Leander, TX, Apex, NC and Chico, CA were the fastest-growing cities with a 2018 population over 50k year-over-year.

Phoenix and San Antonio added the most new residents from July 1, 2018-19.

As expected, the actual data won't be available until around 10AM tomorrow, so no new maps tonight.
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cinyc
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« Reply #781 on: May 21, 2020, 12:19:11 PM »

The 2019 version of the town (incorporated place, minor civil division & county remainder) pop change map is now live:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/population-change/pop-change

Default map is 2010-19. Click on Menu to change what's mapped. 19% = PCT change; 19# = Numerical change. Even the old 2016-18 vintage estimates are there under the 16-18 tabs.

Paradise, CA's loss was really Chico's gain. Paradise, devastated by wildfires, lost over 80% of its population year-over-year.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #782 on: May 21, 2020, 12:33:19 PM »

What are the fastest growing cities in your state (2010-2019) ?
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Storr
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« Reply #783 on: May 21, 2020, 07:16:48 PM »

Quickly looking through the population maps, the big cities (100k+) with declines in population since 2010 seem to all be rust belt cities (Chicago, Detroit, Buffalo, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Toledo, Dayton, Paterson, Rochester NY, Syracuse, Springfield IL, Peoria, while Flint has gone below 100k), smaller Southern cities that have long been on a slow decline (Jackson, Mobile, Birmingham, Montgomery, Memphis, Beaumont, Norfolk, Shreveport), or inner ring Los Angeles County suburbs (Downey, Inglewood, West Covina, Torrance, Norwalk, Burbank) .

Just for fun, it looks like Loving County Texas grew by 106.1%.....from 82 to 169 residents. lol
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #784 on: May 21, 2020, 07:22:55 PM »

inner ring Los Angeles County suburbs (Downey, Inglewood, West Covina, Torrance, Norwalk, Burbank)
The key thing to know about these places is that they aren't really declining, but rather family sizes are plummeting. Many of them have large immigrant populations which formerly had very high birthrates. I expect the number of households is climbing, but the average household size has probably dropped from 4 to 3 and produces an illusion of decline.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #785 on: May 22, 2020, 12:30:47 PM »

Carmel, Indiana broke 100k, becoming the fifth city in Indiana to do so.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #786 on: May 22, 2020, 02:31:52 PM »

citypopulation.de out with their new, sortable 2010-19 maps/tables for states + cities + counties + CSAs:

Click on the arrow/dots on the left of the map to get growth/decline rates + population density.

States + cities: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/cities/

Counties: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/admin/

CSAs (metro areas): https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/combmetro/
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Storr
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« Reply #787 on: May 22, 2020, 03:31:10 PM »

According to the new 2019 estimates, the states that have lost population since 2010 are: Connecticut,  Illinois, Vermont, and West Virginia.

The one that's most concerning is Illinois. All other Rust Belt states are at least barely growing in population, even Michigan which lost population from 2000-2010!
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #788 on: May 22, 2020, 05:04:51 PM »

Hmm. DC-Baltimore is definitely passing Chicago next year and San Francisco-San Jose should pass Chicago by 2022 at the latest. Weird seeing Chicago slip from 3rd to 5th place so fast.
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cinyc
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« Reply #789 on: May 22, 2020, 05:24:05 PM »

Hmm. DC-Baltimore is definitely passing Chicago next year and San Francisco-San Jose should pass Chicago by 2022 at the latest. Weird seeing Chicago slip from 3rd to 5th place so fast.

Chicago will still the the 3rd largest Metropolitan Area for a while. But yes, the DC-Baltimore-Arlington CSA will pass Chicago-Naperville this year. It might have already done so.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #790 on: May 22, 2020, 11:37:06 PM »

Hmm. DC-Baltimore is definitely passing Chicago next year and San Francisco-San Jose should pass Chicago by 2022 at the latest. Weird seeing Chicago slip from 3rd to 5th place so fast.

Both the DC-Baltimore and San Francisco Metro areas will pass Chicagoland pretty soon (they grow at 0.8% per year while Chicago is flat).

All 3 will have ca. 10 million people by 2022.

But Chicago is the more densely populated of the 3: the metro area has 27.500 square km, while DC-Baltimore has 33.000 and the Bay Area 35.000

For comparison: London has 9 million people, but only 1.600 square kilometers ...
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #791 on: May 22, 2020, 11:58:58 PM »

Hmm. DC-Baltimore is definitely passing Chicago next year and San Francisco-San Jose should pass Chicago by 2022 at the latest. Weird seeing Chicago slip from 3rd to 5th place so fast.

Both the DC-Baltimore and San Francisco Metro areas will pass Chicagoland pretty soon (they grow at 0.8% per year while Chicago is flat).

All 3 will have ca. 10 million people by 2022.

But Chicago is the more densely populated of the 3: the metro area has 27.500 square km, while DC-Baltimore has 33.000 and the Bay Area 35.000

For comparison: London has 9 million people, but only 1.600 square kilometers ...

Kind of an awkward metric. Since it's based off of counties, DC-Baltimore, for example, contains a lot of rural areas.

A more apt comparison is 9.0 million person Greater London (606 square miles) to 5.1 million person Washington urban area (1,321 square miles).
Otherwise, you have to compare all of Metropolitan London (Greater London+Buckinghamshire+Hertfordshire+Essex+Kent+Surrey+Berkshire+Hampshire+Sussex+Oxfordshire) with 20.9 million people and 10,404 square miles against the DC-Baltimore CSA with 9.8 million people across 33,000 square miles. Even this is crude because American CSAs include any county with 5% of its workforce commuting to any county in the CSA, which adds parts of the Delmarva peninsula, West Virginia, and South-Central Pennsylvania to the metro area even when they're obviously undeveloped. It would be like having Metropolitan London stretch from Ipswich to Swindon.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #792 on: May 23, 2020, 12:22:36 AM »

Combining Washington and Baltimore into one CSA makes me wonder if they'd ever do the same with Chicago and Milwaukee.

Also, what cities go over 1 million in the next Decade? Austin appears to be a certainty and might even go over the top with the upcoming census. Do Jacksonville, Fort Worth, Columbus and/or Charlotte get there?
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #793 on: May 23, 2020, 12:26:57 AM »

Combining Washington and Baltimore into one CSA makes me wonder if they'd ever do the same with Chicago and Milwaukee.

Definitely a possibility, although I'm not sure if commuting between Lake County and Kenosha/Racine is increasing.. A more intriguing possibility is New York-Philadelphia. Last census, Mercer county hit the commuting threshold to combine the two but it was overridden. At some point or another, the two will be attached, which will be weird. I guess we'll have to call the area Greater Jersey.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #794 on: May 23, 2020, 12:59:33 AM »

Combining Washington and Baltimore into one CSA makes me wonder if they'd ever do the same with Chicago and Milwaukee.

Also, what cities go over 1 million in the next Decade? Austin appears to be a certainty and might even go over the top with the upcoming census. Do Jacksonville, Fort Worth, Columbus and/or Charlotte get there?

Austin will get there first for sure, and Fort Worth, Columbus, and Charlotte will follow. Jacksonville isn't growing nearly as fast, so probably will be a while for it.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #795 on: May 23, 2020, 06:44:37 AM »

Combining Washington and Baltimore into one CSA makes me wonder if they'd ever do the same with Chicago and Milwaukee.

Definitely a possibility, although I'm not sure if commuting between Lake County and Kenosha/Racine is increasing.. A more intriguing possibility is New York-Philadelphia. Last census, Mercer county hit the commuting threshold to combine the two but it was overridden. At some point or another, the two will be attached, which will be weird. I guess we'll have to call the area Greater Jersey.

Eventually the Northeast CSA will just be the entire Acela corridor, linked by the businessmen who crisscross the cities on their daily commutes. Efficient changes in car design or increased development of commuter networks will probably be needed, but those seem inevitable given the progress of time.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #796 on: May 24, 2020, 10:22:25 AM »

I just signed up for DRA. What should be the "target population" for each district on a CA map with 52 districts?
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #797 on: May 24, 2020, 01:28:15 PM »

I just signed up for DRA. What should be the "target population" for each district on a CA map with 52 districts?

Set the population to 2018 figures and divide by 52. Also, this is the wrong thread for this.
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Torie
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« Reply #798 on: June 23, 2020, 02:03:37 PM »

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people, does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

Its looking extremely likely at this point.

And one could make the argument that both seats should come at the expense of Upstate New York.

The math doesn’t add up for two upstate losses. The more likely result is that one seat upstate is lost along with one Long Island/East NYC seat.

The math might not add up to 2 lost seats at all. NY-26 is literally on the bubble in many of the analyses I've seen.

I'd bet that it will lose 2, though.

Cinyc, what odds do you place on NY losing 2 seats rather than 1? Whether NY loses two CD's or one has a big impact on the options for the border of the current NY-19 given NY's funnel shape.  NY clearly has the oddest shape of all 50 states in my opinion.

How accurate is the census when it asks where one lived on April 1 four months later? Is there any data that addresses that issue? I assume there will be more late responses this year than in the past.
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cinyc
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« Reply #799 on: June 23, 2020, 02:41:37 PM »

Cinyc, what odds do you place on NY losing 2 seats rather than 1? Whether NY loses two CD's or one has a big impact on the options for the border of the current NY-19 given NY's funnel shape.  NY clearly has the oddest shape of all 50 states in my opinion.

How accurate is the census when it asks where one lived on April 1 four months later? Is there any data that addresses that issue? I assume there will be more late responses this year than in the past.

Given the COVID-related escape from NYC (especially Manhattan), I think NYC losing 2 seats is a lot more likely than the 2019 estimates and forecasts say. I'd almost bet on it.

There's a thread on the General board about Census' efforts. I haven't updated my interactive map vs 2010 in a while, but areas of NYC - especially on the Upper East Side near Central Park - were really lagging their 2010 response rates in mid-May. Response rates haven't increased much since.
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