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  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  Census population estimates 2011-2019
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 127108 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #75 on: December 30, 2013, 12:52:08 pm »

A couple more charts for easier viewing:

Sorted by numerical change

(pic)


Over 17% over the growth in the US is in TX.

Yeah, the fact that TX has a relatively high birth rate (1.5% in 2012) and a low birth rate (0.7%) is helping.

TX grew by 1.5%, of which 0.8% came from a birth surplus and 0.7% from a migration surplus.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #76 on: December 30, 2013, 12:52:28 pm »

2012 to 2013 growth population:



Over average growth: 279
Under average growth: 248
On par growth: 11
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #77 on: December 30, 2013, 12:56:24 pm »

Question:

What about Puerto Rico ?

Migration to the mainland ?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #78 on: December 30, 2013, 12:57:27 pm »

2012 to 2013 growth population:



MA really sticks out.  Also MN and NM.  Why would NM be lagging?

Over average growth: 279
Under average growth: 248
On par growth: 11
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #79 on: December 30, 2013, 12:58:51 pm »

2012 to 2013 growth population:



MA really sticks out.  Also MN and NM.  Why would NM be lagging?

Over average growth: 279
Under average growth: 248
On par growth: 11

Better border enforcement (=> Mexicans staying in Mexico) ?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #80 on: December 30, 2013, 01:05:07 pm »

2012 to 2013 growth population:



MA really sticks out.  Also MN and NM.  Why would NM be lagging?

Over average growth: 279
Under average growth: 248
On par growth: 11

Unfortunately you can't see how much specifically they grew because I was didn't feel like doing shades, but Minnesota only grew slightly larger than the national average, and overall the Twin Cities are doing good and is growing much faster in comparison to Wisconsin or Iowa. Massachusetts seems to be the one area in New England that is actually growing, its a hot spot for liberals and Boston seems to be keeping people's interest. New Mexico actually had very little growth (the fourth lowest in the nation!). I'm guessing Latinos are still building up, but people are moving out of the state. But I have no idea on that one.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #81 on: December 30, 2013, 01:09:17 pm »

Updated topic title.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #82 on: December 30, 2013, 01:10:17 pm »

Does anyone know if any states switched spots in population rankings?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #83 on: December 30, 2013, 01:13:45 pm »

Does anyone know if any states switched spots in population rankings?

UT passed KS over the last year and NE passed WV.

That's all.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #84 on: December 30, 2013, 01:15:14 pm »

Does anyone know if any states switched spots in population rankings?

UT passed KS over the last year and NE passed WV.

That's all.

Beat me to it.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #85 on: December 30, 2013, 01:20:58 pm »

Does anyone know if any states switched spots in population rankings?

UT passed KS over the last year and NE passed WV.

That's all.

Ah interesting, thanks! Looks like next year might have a bit more movement in the rankings.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #86 on: December 30, 2013, 01:23:04 pm »

Just checked the NM situation:

NM had a birth rate of 1.3% in 2012 and a death rate of 0.8% - a surplus of 0.5%

But the overall population growth was just 0.1%, which indicates a massive out-migration.

The Census Bureau decided to release the "components of change" separately this time, in February ... Tongue
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krazen1211
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« Reply #87 on: December 30, 2013, 01:28:12 pm »


CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NC +1
OH -1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +1
WV -1

Sean Trende has:

2020:CO+1 seat, FL+1, MT+1 (!!), NC+1, TX+2, VA+1, IL-1, MI-1, NY-1, OH-1, PA-1, RI-1 (!!), WV-1
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True Federalist
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« Reply #88 on: December 30, 2013, 01:40:47 pm »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2013 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 3 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NC +1
OH -1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +1
WV -1

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are FL-28, VA-12, AL-7, TX-39, and NY-27 (#435).
The next five in line are CA-54, MT-2, WV-3, OR-6, MN-8.

Using a different growth model that weighted the growth from each estimate, giving a greater weight to the estimated growth rate from 2012 to 2013 than 2011 to 2012, etc.  I come up with similar values that yield the same seat changes, but a different order of the ten bubble seats.

431 FL-28
432 VA-12
433 AL-7
434 NY-27
435 TX-39

436 CA-54
437 MT-2
438 MN-8
439 OR-6
440 WV-3

BTW, krazen, why the surprise at Rhode Island losing a seat?  Given these estimates, I fail to see how Rhode Island avoids losing a seat under any reasonable model of population change.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #89 on: December 30, 2013, 02:03:42 pm »

I merely cut and pasted his message.
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #90 on: December 30, 2013, 02:16:02 pm »


In that case, since I don't have or want to be a twit, even tho I don't expect Sean to read this: Sean, why the surprise at Rhode Island losing a seat?  Given these estimates, I fail to see how Rhode Island avoids losing a seat under any reasonable model of population change.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #91 on: December 30, 2013, 02:30:40 pm »

pretty disappointed in Georgia. I was sure we would pass 10 million this year. A 77K increase is actually pretty dismal for our state as well. Even during the recession we were adding more than that yearly. What's even weirder is that the economy is really improving in Georgia. The unemployment rate is falling and the cranes are back all over Atlanta.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #92 on: December 30, 2013, 02:36:39 pm »

If Austria were a US state, where would it be in the ranking ?

12th in terms of overall population (8.502 Mio.)

11th in terms of numerical change (62.000)

Slightly above the US average in % terms (0.73%)
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muon2
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« Reply #93 on: December 30, 2013, 03:21:36 pm »


CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NC +1
OH -1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +1
WV -1

Sean Trende has:

2020:CO+1 seat, FL+1, MT+1 (!!), NC+1, TX+2, VA+1, IL-1, MI-1, NY-1, OH-1, PA-1, RI-1 (!!), WV-1

His Twitter feed doesn't give any sense of the model he's using. I pulled up his RCP article to get a better idea. He uses a linear projection instead of a compounding formula which puts large high-growth states like TX at a disadvantage and partially explains why he only gets TX+2. The list quoted above is not his initial analysis, but is based on adding the growth in 2012 plus twice the growth in 2013 so it is very sensitive to fluctuations in the 2013 numbers just released. His basic linear projection gives: CO+1, FL+1, NC+1, TX+3, VA+1, IL-1, MI-1, MN-1, OH-1, PA-1, RI-1, WV-1, and is the same as the list I get.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #94 on: December 30, 2013, 03:53:55 pm »

Question:

What about Puerto Rico ?

Migration to the mainland ?
Yes plus it also has a low TFR.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #95 on: December 30, 2013, 06:53:40 pm »

I'm surprised Minnesota grew faster than the national average.  This hasn't happened often recently at all.  Hopefully it keeps up.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #96 on: December 30, 2013, 07:37:08 pm »

When do county estimates come out?
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Nhoj
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« Reply #97 on: December 30, 2013, 07:45:55 pm »

March I believe.
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danny
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« Reply #98 on: December 30, 2013, 10:46:20 pm »

If Austria were a US state, where would it be in the ranking ?

12th in terms of overall population (8.502 Mio.)

11th in terms of numerical change (62.000)

Slightly above the US average in % terms (0.73%)

I'll do the same for Israel:

13th in terms of overall population (8.132 Mio.)

4th in terms of numerical change (147,000)

3rd in terms of percent change (1.8%)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #99 on: December 31, 2013, 02:59:56 am »

If Austria were a US state, where would it be in the ranking ?

12th in terms of overall population (8.502 Mio.)

11th in terms of numerical change (62.000)

Slightly above the US average in % terms (0.73%)

I'll do the same for Israel:

13th in terms of overall population (8.132 Mio.)

4th in terms of numerical change (147,000)

3rd in terms of percent change (1.8%)

Israel is similar to Utah, having the same high birth rate and low death rate. Plus a good share of immigration as well.

Here, births and deaths are about equal - with all of the growth coming from foreigners moving in.
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