Census population estimates 2011-2019

[muon2]

Do we really believe North Dakota's population hasn't declined at all since its surge?

Since 2015 its average growth rate is less than 0.3%/year. That's much slower than SD and less than other plains states other than KS (0.2%/year this decade).

[muon2]

I think the federal overseas population will be about half of what it was in 2010, even without the distinction between deployed and stationed. In 2010, 96% of the federal overseas population was military, with about 60% of that dependents.

The number stationed overseas is now under 200,000. Most are in areas where dependents can be resident (Europe, Japan, Korea). The share of dependents is likely about the same, with long-term trend towards career military (old enough to have acquired dependents), but perhaps balanced by long-term decline in marriages and child-bearing.

I think I will just use 3/4 of the change from 2019 to 2020 for my April 1, 2020 estimate.

What would you use for 2030 projections? I'm thinking perhaps getting a growth rate from 2015 to 2020.

Extending the recent growth rate is one approach. However, I suspect that there will be long-term sociological changes due to the pandemic. The rapid shift to remote work won't all go back to pre-2020 levels. That will likely change where people choose to live in ways that are not captured by rates in the last decade. I think it may take 5 years to clearly see any new trends that will cause shifts to the 2030 forecasts.

[muon2]

Do you all think Minnesota has a good chance to regain the seat it lost in 2020 at the time of the 2030 census?

MN has had a growth rate very close to the nation as a whole this decade. It was on the bubble in 2010 and it still on the bubble in 2020. If MN loses its 8th seat this cycle and continues to match or slightly exceed the national growth rate, they will stay on the bubble for an 8th seat in 2030.

[muon2]

Normally the Census would be releasing the actual 2020 Census apportionment data next week, and not the Jul 1, 2020 estimates. Due to the expected delay in the release of the apportionment data, we can look at these estimates that do not include any 2020 Census data. It will be interesting to compare this to the actual Census population when they are released.

So, here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used these July 2020 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This accounts for a 10 and a quarter year period between the 2010 Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -2
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

AL and NY have switched seats compared to last year, so that AL would have no change and NY would lose 2 seats. I tested the possibility that inclusion of the Covid-19 fatalities in NY between April 1 and July 1 would affect the result. I added the July 1 NY fatality count to my April 1 projection, and it made NY closer to AL but did not change the overall projection.

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, CA-52, FL-29, TX-39, and AL-7 (#435).
The next five in line are NY-26, OH-16, MN-8, CA-53, and VA-12.

What numbers are we talking about for AL and NY to switch back with this estimate vis a vis the actual census figures? Is it 5,000 people or 15,000 people? Yes I know the final numbers for all the states matter.

On the NY side I added 32K to see what the effect of the pandemic would be on these July estimates. It cut the margin with AL in half, so another 32K would get it ahead on April 1. On the AL side if they have 8K fewer, assuming the 32K added to NY for covid then NY would get seat 435. These projections assume the same relative overseas military populations. In 2010 that adjustment was 23K for AL and 43K for NY. Census 2020 is changing this so that the adjustment I described would apply to those stationed outside the US, but those deployed outside the US while stationed in the US will count at their station address. I don't know how that split is for different states.

Also, how much of a sure thing is TX-39 with the higher than usual uncertainty this year?

It's seat number 434 in this projection of mine. There are a lot of hard to count populations in TX and this was a tough year for counting in states that did not put in extra resources. It's not hard to imagine that undercounts of the Latino population result in TX missing out on its third additional seat.