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  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  Census population estimates 2011-2019
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 127110 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #100 on: December 31, 2013, 06:51:53 am »

Here's my comprehensive chart, based on the Census Bureau file yesterday (click right for big version):



I added the 4 "change" columns to the CB file and formatted it slightly.

In previous years, the CB always added the "change" columns themselves.

This year, they were extremely lazy ... Wink
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #101 on: January 04, 2014, 10:01:41 am »

A sad fact might be that Los Angeles County, California might hit 10 million in population before Georgia. As of now (2012 estimate) its at 9.96 million.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #102 on: January 04, 2014, 10:51:42 am »

A sad fact might be that Los Angeles County, California might hit 10 million in population before Georgia. As of now (2012 estimate) its at 9.96 million.

According to the CA DoF estimates for Mid-2013 it already did:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-2/documents/E2_press_release_Jul2013.pdf

The Dof estimates use a different method though.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #103 on: January 05, 2014, 10:19:33 am »

States that have grown faster/slower in the past year than on average in the past 3.25 years since the Census:



green => faster
red => slower

...

For example:

CO grew 73.600 on average in the past 3.25 years, but by 78.900 in the past year.

TX grew 401.000 on average, but only 387.000 last year.
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hopper
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« Reply #104 on: January 18, 2014, 01:55:24 am »

Nice to see Michigan gaining population again.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #105 on: January 30, 2014, 07:25:37 pm »

Components of population change by state have been released here.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #106 on: January 30, 2014, 07:33:53 pm »

Components of population change by state have been released here.

Link doesn't work for me
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #107 on: January 30, 2014, 07:41:54 pm »

Components of population change by state have been released here.

Link doesn't work for me

Sorry, linking to the FactFinder is tricky. What if you go here and then click on the third link, called "Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013"?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #108 on: December 02, 2014, 03:34:46 am »

http://www.calendarwiz.com/calendars/calendar.php?crd=cens1sample&&jsenabled=1&winh=947&winw=1466&inifr=false

The most likely estimates for the TOP-10:

  1 - CA - 38.67 Mio.
  2 - TX - 26.84 Mio.
  3 - FL - 19.79 Mio.
  4 - NY -19.73 Mio.
  5 - IL - 12.90 Mio.
  6 - PA - 12.78 Mio.
  7 - OH - 11.59 Mio.
  8 - GA - 10.07 Mio.
  9 - NC - 9.95 Mio.
10 - MI - 9.91 Mio.

USA: 318.35 Mio. (+2.22 Mio., +0.7%)

FL overtakes NY. NC overtakes MI.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #109 on: December 03, 2014, 04:12:08 am »

Any predictions for which states will have the biggest increase in % terms ?

Probably ND and DC will have the highest growth rates again, like last year.

I think CO might actually overtake UT for 3rd.

Or maybe NV is back in the top-3 again.

Last year, only ME, WV and PR lost population.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #110 on: December 22, 2014, 07:02:56 am »

Some states, such as WA, OR, CA, WI, FL and GA (Atlanta Metro) release their own annual estimates - independently to the Census Bureau numbers (which means they often differ from those).

There are indications that the population growth in WA, OR and GA has picked up in the past year between July 1, 2013 and July 1, 2014.

CA's growth rate is steady at around 0.9% and FL has picked up 250.000 people, which means it has overtaken NY for sure in the new estimates out tomorrow.
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muon2
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« Reply #111 on: December 22, 2014, 11:13:12 am »

Some states, such as WA, OR, CA, WI, FL and GA (Atlanta Metro) release their own annual estimates - independently to the Census Bureau numbers (which means they often differ from those).

There are indications that the population growth in WA, OR and GA has picked up in the past year between July 1, 2013 and July 1, 2014.

CA's growth rate is steady at around 0.9% and FL has picked up 250.000 people, which means it has overtaken NY for sure in the new estimates out tomorrow.

The state estimates often differ substantially from the CB. On top of that, the methodology from the states varies from state to state. The CB uses the same methodology for all states, so it's the best measure to compare growth rates from state to state.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #112 on: December 23, 2014, 03:04:45 am »

I assume the new numbers will come out at some point in the morning (EST time), which is afternoon here.

I'm at a birthday party during the afternoon, so please someone else post the figures here.

Thx.

I'll check in later.
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muon2
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« Reply #113 on: December 23, 2014, 10:35:10 am »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2014 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 3 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

CA +1
CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +1
WV -1

The only change since my projections last year is that CA is back to +1 and NY is back to -1 as they were after the 2012 estimate instead of even last year. They continue to be the most likely to change, and there is some shifting in the other bubble seats. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are CO-8, TX-39, VA-12, CA-54, and AL-7 (#435).
The next five in line are NY-27, OR-6, AZ-10, MT-2, MN-8.
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Miles
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« Reply #114 on: December 23, 2014, 10:59:58 am »

Yep, FL passes NY:

CA- 38,802,500
TX- 26,956,958
FL- 19,893,297
NY- 19,746,227
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muon2
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« Reply #115 on: December 23, 2014, 11:09:16 am »

Since the 2010 Census happened during the housing downturn of the Great Recession, I thought it would be worth testing the model if the growth was based off the last two years of estimates. That means that I use the 2014 and 2012 estimates and use them to extract a compounding rate of population growth.  I apply that to the 2014 estimate and adjust for the April to July difference, then add the overseas population difference increased by the state's growth rate. The result assumes that recent growth is more indicative of how that state will grow for the rest of the decade.

Using this model, I get the following projected changes, using bold to show the differences compared to my full decade projection.
AL -1
AZ +1

CA +1
CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +0
WV -1

The changes are all bubble states. The West shows more increase in growth recently, and if it holds to that growth the West could see extra seats as a benefit.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #116 on: December 23, 2014, 11:20:30 am »

I'm at a birthday party during the afternoon, so please someone else post the figures here.

Thx.

I'll check in later.

Back !

...

Top numerical gainers (2013 => 2014)Sad

451K - TX
371K - CA
293K - FL
103K - GA
  97K - AZ
  95K - NC
  88K - WA
  84K - CO
  61K - SC
  56K - VA

Top %-gainers (2013 => 2014)Sad

2.16% ND
1.71% NV
1.70% TX
1.59% CO
1.51% DC
1.50% FL
1.45% AZ
1.38% UT
1.34% ID
1.27% SC

States that lost population (2013 => 2014)Sad

  -1K VT
  -1K AK
  -1K NM
  -3K CT
  -3K WV
-10K IL
-47K PR
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #117 on: December 23, 2014, 11:22:56 am »

Any predictions for which states will have the biggest increase in % terms ?

Probably ND and DC will have the highest growth rates again, like last year.

I think CO might actually overtake UT for 3rd.

Or maybe NV is back in the top-3 again.

Last year, only ME, WV and PR lost population.

ND is ahead again, but DC fell back a bit.

NV indeed is in the top-3 again, recovering from the housing bust.

CO is not 3rd, but has overtaken UT.

TX really continues to be a magnet.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #118 on: December 23, 2014, 11:25:21 am »

The CB's infographic, showing how FL has caught up to NY in recent decades and now overtook it:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #119 on: December 23, 2014, 11:36:46 am »

States with the highest numerical migration gains (international + domestic)Sad

251K - FL
239K - TX
129K - CA
  58K - NC
  56K - AZ
  52K - WA
  51K - CO
  47K - GA
  45K - SC
  34K - TN

States with the highest numerical migration gains (international only)Sad

161K - CA
119K - NY
112K - FL
  85K - TX
  52K - NJ
  37K - MA
  34K - VA
  33K - IL
  29K - PA
  29K - MD

States with the highest numerical migration gains (domestic only)Sad

155K - TX
139K - FL
  42K - AZ
  40K - CO
  39K - SC
  36K - NC
  28K - WA
  25K - TN
  24K - NV
  23K - OR
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Sol
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« Reply #120 on: December 23, 2014, 11:39:40 am »

What are the stats for international % of growth in a state? I bet an unusually high percentage of migration to MN is international.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #121 on: December 23, 2014, 11:42:00 am »

What are the stats for international % of growth in a state? I bet an unusually high percentage of migration to MN is international.

Minnesota's international migration is 2.6 per 1000, a little lower than the national average of 3.1 per 1000. It has net domestic outmigration of -1.2.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #122 on: December 23, 2014, 11:42:13 am »

The 10 states with the highest numerical domestic migration losses are all Democratic states:

  -16K MA
  -18K OH
  -20K VA
  -26K CT
  -29K MI
  -32K PA
  -32K CA
  -56K NJ
  -95K IL
-154K NY
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Sol
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« Reply #123 on: December 23, 2014, 11:43:40 am »

What are the stats for international % of growth in a state? I bet an unusually high percentage of migration to MN is international.

Minnesota's international migration is 2.6 per 1000, a little lower than the national average of 3.1 per 1000. It has net domestic outmigration of -1.2.

Huh, I thought it'd be higher with all the refugee resettlement.
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Brittain33
brittain33
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« Reply #124 on: December 23, 2014, 11:46:17 am »

What are the stats for international % of growth in a state? I bet an unusually high percentage of migration to MN is international.

Minnesota's international migration is 2.6 per 1000, a little lower than the national average of 3.1 per 1000. It has net domestic outmigration of -1.2.

Huh, I thought it'd be higher with all the refugee resettlement.

It may be that MN isn't much of a destination for immigrants except for refugees.
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