2013 Elections in Germany

[Kevinstat]

The law states that constituencies should not deviate by more than 15 and must not deviate by more than 25 (the relevant figure being citizen population). The Bundestag likes to ignore the first half of that harder than the Commission does. The second is, however, ironclad - any constituency that gets dangerously near must be redrawn immediately, as a deviation over 25% on election day could lead to the whole election being annulled.

Also, how is the deviation calculated?

(largest district pop. - smallest district pop.)/mean district pop. (as in the U.S.)
(largest district pop. - smallest district pop.)/either district's pop. (thus always smallest district pop. as that will be larger)
|(given district pop. - ideal district pop.)|/mean district pop. (any given district's deviation from the mean or "ideal" district population)

[Middle-aged Europe]

AfD PV, automatically generated from http://vis.uell.net/btw/13/atlas.html
Colouring in 1%-steps, from to >6.



Best results in Gorlitz (8.2), Sächs. Schweiz-Osterzgebirge (7.9) and Ergebirgskreis I (7.6). A look at the map suggests that it wasn't that much Greece's, but rather the Czech Republic's and Poland's EU membership that motivated a lot of Eastern AfD voters.

Their Bavarian counterparts are obviously having far less problems with the Czech Republic's  EU membership. AfD was weakest in the CDU stronghold of Cloppenburg-Vechta (2.3), followed by Mittelems (2.5), Borken II (2.7), and Osnabruck City (2.7). Apparently, Western Lower Saxony and NRW is quite happy about their EU neighbour (at least as long as it does not come to playing football against each other).

Apparently, the NPD's strongholds are also the AfD's strongholds. Saxony, wtf?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sächsische Schweiz is such a sh**thole..

CDU 46.0%
Left 17.1%
SPD 10.9%
AfD 7.9%
NPD 5.1%
Greens 3.6%
Free Voters 3.2%
FDP 3.2%

[Yeahsayyeah]

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The used scale does exaggerate the Linke losses in non-big-city-Saxony a little bit, because statewide it has exactly 20 percent now.  Saxony also was AfD's strongest state with 6.8 per cent, so much of the protest vote probably just shifted.

The economic development of Dresden does not affect the parts East of it that much (constituencies Bautzen and Görlitz), most of the Dresden suburbs in Landkreis Bautzen are in the Dresden II-Bautzen II district. And they have always been the weakest constituencies for SPD and Linke/PDS in Saxony.

Intereistingly, there was a huge gap between the federal and state election result in Saxony (CDU polling much higher in the latter) between 1998 and 2005 that now finally closed. In 1998 even much of them wanted to get rid of Kohl, Schröder was highly popular in 2002 and Stoiber a bad fit for the East (Strauß had been quite popular in parts of Saxony, but mainly for the perception of helping the East German people (or at least care), 2005 had a large protest vote against the pro-market economic policies and the cuts in the social system by the Red/green administration. Their radical pro market platform that had been adopted at a federal party conference in Leipzig in 2003 maybe did not help them, either. 2009 was the electoral high peak of the anti-welfare-cut movement on the one hand, had ridiculously high FDP results on the other and the state CDU was shook by several scandals at the time.

It seems for the first time Merkel got a bonus for being perceived a good fit for the East German political culture. (Noone remembers her and the CDU's radical pro market "Leipzig platform" of

[Middle-aged Europe]

How my precinct voted (precinct 412 in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, Berlin)

First vote
Left 31.2%
SPD 21.1%
Greens 19.8%
CDU 18.6%
AfD 4.1%
Pirates 2.1%
FDP 0.9%
DIE PARTEI 0.7%
NPD 0.7%

Second vote
Left 36.3%
SPD 23.9%
CDU 21.5%
Greens 6.6%
AfD 5.4%
Pirates 2.9%
FDP 1.5%
DIE PARTEI 0.6%
NPD 0.5%

Also, 999 ballots were cast in my precinct. So you only have to multiply the pecentages with 10 and you'll roughly get the total number of voters (or in case of the FDP second vote... 15 people).

[Yeahsayyeah]

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This:

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The electoral law does not state, at which point of time the population requirements must be fulfilled. It is even possible that in the East many constituencies did not fulfill them in 1998.

The malapportionment in parts of Bavaria is really ridiculous, but that's more a personal protection of the actual incumbents and not make the CSU regionals angry and not a gerrymander to make the CSU result better: The CSU nowadays would gain any suburban-to-rural direct seat in Bavaria by default.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Breaking: Christian Lindner set to become new FDP chairman.

Journalists have also calculated that up to 600 people are going to lose their jobs because of the FDP collapse. That's how many people the FDP employed in their Bundestag offices. At least Lindner is not umemployed, because he's still a state parliament member from NRW.

[Tender Branson]

Breaking: Christian Lindner set to become new FDP chairman.

Journalists have also calculated that up to 600 people are going to lose their jobs because of the FDP collapse. That's how many people the FDP employed in their Bundestag offices. At least Lindner is not umemployed, because he's still a state parliament member from NRW.

Good.

Barney Stinson Christian Lindner will get the FDP back on track for 2017.

[freek]

AfD PV, automatically generated from http://vis.uell.net/btw/13/atlas.html
Colouring in 1%-steps, from to >6.

Best results in Gorlitz (8.2), Sächs. Schweiz-Osterzgebirge (7.9) and Ergebirgskreis I (7.6). A look at the map suggests that it wasn't that much Greece's, but rather the Czech Republic's and Poland's EU membership that motivated a lot of Eastern AfD voters.

Their Bavarian counterparts are obviously having far less problems with the Czech Republic's  EU membership. AfD was weakest in the CDU stronghold of Cloppenburg-Vechta (2.3), followed by Mittelems (2.5), Borken II (2.7), and Osnabruck City (2.7). Apparently, Western Lower Saxony and NRW is quite happy about their EU neighbour (at least as long as it does not come to playing football against each other).

Is there a reason why AfD had results of 6% or higher in a string of districts in Baden-Württemberg? Disappointed former FDP voters?

[minionofmidas]

How the new electoral system works

First, we distribute each state's notional seat due to the state parties, using Ste Lague. Then, we compare that with the direct seats won, using the larger number for each state party.

Schleswig Holstein
22 CDU 10 SPD 8 Left 1 Greens 3. Direct seats CDU 9, SPD 2
Hamburg
13 CDU 5 SPD 5 Left 1 Greens 2. Direct seats SPD 5, CDU 1
Lower Saxony
59 CDU 28 SPD 22 Left 3 Greens 6. Direct seats CDU 17, SPD 13
Bremen
5 CDU 1 SPD 2 Left 1 Greens 1. Direct seats SPD 2
North Rhine Westphalia
128 CDU 59 SPD 48 Left 9 Greens 12. Direct seats CDU 37 SPD 27
Hessen
43 CDU 20 SPD 15 Left 3 Greens 5. Direct seats CDU 17 SPD 5
Rhineland Pfalz
30 CDU 15 SPD 10 Left 2 Greens 3. Direct seats CDU 14 SPD 1
Saarland
7 CDU 3 SPD 3 Left 1 Greens 0. Direct seats CDU 4
Baden Württemberg
76 CDU 43 SPD 19 Left 4 Greens 10. Direct seats CDU 38
Bavaria
92 CSU 56 SPD 23 Left 4 Greens 9. Direct seats CSU 45
Berlin
24 CDU 8 SPD 7 Left 5 Greens 4. Direct seats CDU 5, Left 4, SPD 2, Greens 1
Mecklenburg Lower Pomerania
13 CDU 6 SPD 3 Left 3 Greens 1. Direct seats CDU 6
Brandenburg
19 CDU 8 SPD 5 Left 5 Greens 1. Direct seats CDU 9, SPD 1
Saxony Anhalt
18 CDU 8 SPD 4 Left 5 Greens 1. Direct seats CDU 9
Saxony
32 CDU 16 SPD 6 Left 8 Greens 2. Direct seats CDU 16
Thuringia
17 CDU 8 SPD 3 Left 5 Greens 1. Direct seats CDU 9

the same table with the threshold set to anywhere between 2.5 and 4.5

Schleswig Holstein
22 CDU 9 SPD 8 Left 1 Greens 2 FDP 1 AfD 1. Direct seats CDU 9, SPD 2
Hamburg
13 CDU 4 SPD 4 Left 1 Greens 2 FDP 1 AfD 1. Direct seats SPD 5, CDU 1
Lower Saxony
59 CDU 25 SPD 21 Left 3 Greens 5 FDP 3 AfD 2. Direct seats CDU 17, SPD 13
Bremen
5 CDU 1 SPD 2 Left 1 Greens 1 FDP 0 AfD 0. Direct seats SPD 2
North Rhine Westphalia
128 CDU 54 SPD 43 Left 8 Greens 11 FDP 7 AfD 5. Direct seats CDU 37 SPD 27
Hessen
43 CDU 18 SPD 13 Left 3 Greens 4 FDP 2 AfD 3. Direct seats CDU 17 SPD 5
Rhineland Pfalz
30 CDU 14 SPD 9 Left 2 Greens 2 FDP 2 AfD 1. Direct seats CDU 14 SPD 1
Saarland
7 CDU 3 SPD 3 Left 1 Greens 0 FDP 0 AfD 0. Direct seats CDU 4
Baden Württemberg
76 CDU 37 SPD 17 Left 4 Greens 9 FDP 5 AfD 4. Direct seats CDU 38
Bavaria
92 CSU 50 SPD 20 Left 4 Greens 9 FDP 5 AfD 4. Direct seats CSU 45
Berlin
24 CDU 8 SPD 6 Left 5 Greens 3 FDP 1 AfD 1. Direct seats CDU 5, Left 4, SPD 2, Greens 1
Mecklenburg Lower Pomerania
13 CDU 6 SPD 2 Left 3 Greens 1 FDP 0 AfD 1. Direct seats CDU 6
Brandenburg
19 CDU 7 SPD 5 Left 4 Greens 1 FDP 1 AfD 1. Direct seats CDU 9, SPD 1
Saxony Anhalt
18 CDU 8 SPD 3 Left 5 Greens 1 FDP 0 AfD 1. Direct seats CDU 9
Saxony
32 CDU 15 SPD 5 Left 7 Greens 2 FDP 1 AfD 2. Direct seats CDU 16
Thuringia
17 CDU 7 SPD 3 Left 4 Greens 1 FDP 1 AfD 1. Direct seats CDU 9


Now, we sum parties nationally.
CDU 238 242 SPD 183 Left 60 Greens 61 CSU 56.
Or with a different threshold
CDU 216 224 SPD 164 165 Left 56 Greens 54 CSU 50 FDP 30 AfD 28

Then we turn to the national result and find the smallest number of seats that gives every party at least this number of seats in a Ste Lague distribution. Obviously, that means finding the party most overrepresented on these numbers - which, surprisingly, is the CSU. Even with the more reasonable threshold (though in that case it's at least close).

CDU 255 SPD 192 Left 64 Greens 63 CSU 56 - 630 seats total
or alternatively
CDU 228 SPD 172 Left 57 Greens 56 CSU 50 FDP 32 AfD 31 - 626 seats total


And then we distribute all parties' new national tallies back to the state parties, using Ste Lague but otherwise doing it the Scottish/Welsh way; ie state parties do not just get to keep overhang seats but actually take them from other parties. (Mathematically, this is very elegantly done by awarding the directly won seats first and then distributing only the remaining seats. Though it could turn into a paradoxon-riddled nightmare under Hare-Niemeyer.)

This gives the states' final seat tallies of

Schleswig Holstein
24 CDU 11 SPD 9 Left 1 Greens 3
Hamburg
13 CDU 5 SPD 5 Left 1 Greens 2
Lower Saxony
66 CDU 31 SPD 25 Left 4 Greens 6
Bremen
6 CDU 2 SPD 2 Left 1 Greens 1
North Rhine Westphalia
138 CDU 63 SPD 52 Left 10 Greens 13
Hessen
44 CDU 21 SPD 15 Left 3 Greens 5
Rhineland Pfalz
31 CDU 16 SPD 10 Left 2 Greens 3
Saarland
9 CDU 4 SPD 3 Left 1 Greens 1
Baden Württemberg
78 CDU 43 SPD 20 Left 5 Greens 10
Bavaria
89 CSU 56 SPD 20 Left 4 Greens 9
Berlin
27 CDU 9 SPD 8 Left 6 Greens 4
Mecklenburg Lower Pomerania
13 CDU 6 SPD 3 Left 3 Greens 1
Brandenburg
20 CDU 9 SPD 5 Left 5 Greens 1
Saxony Anhalt
19 CDU 9 SPD 4 Left 5 Greens 1
Saxony
33 CDU 17 SPD 6 Left 8 Greens 2
Thuringia
18 CDU 9 SPD 3 Left 5 Greens 1

States where FDP and AfD did badly (NRW, Berlin, Lower Saxony) profit handsomely.

I think I want to calculate how this would look with FDP and AfD in... but I really need a table with the party's raw votes by state all in one place for it (I didn't calculate the final distribution myself, using the official results instead).

[minionofmidas]

AfD PV, automatically generated from http://vis.uell.net/btw/13/atlas.html
Colouring in 1%-steps, from to >6.

Best results in Gorlitz (8.2), Sächs. Schweiz-Osterzgebirge (7.9) and Ergebirgskreis I (7.6). A look at the map suggests that it wasn't that much Greece's, but rather the Czech Republic's and Poland's EU membership that motivated a lot of Eastern AfD voters.

Their Bavarian counterparts are obviously having far less problems with the Czech Republic's  EU membership. AfD was weakest in the CDU stronghold of Cloppenburg-Vechta (2.3), followed by Mittelems (2.5), Borken II (2.7), and Osnabruck City (2.7). Apparently, Western Lower Saxony and NRW is quite happy about their EU neighbour (at least as long as it does not come to playing football against each other).

Is there a reason why AfD had results of 6% or higher in a string of districts in Baden-Württemberg? Disappointed former FDP voters?

I think so; its West German strength does seem somewhat correlated with traditional FDP strength. That specifically Badenian distribution must have some additional explanation, though.

[minionofmidas]

The malapportionment in parts of Bavaria is really ridiculous, but that's more a personal protection of the actual incumbents and not make the CSU regionals angry

It's almost entirely the latter with a minimal touch of the former, to be precise.

[Franknburger]

Also, Hamburg-Mitte which is I the largest constituency in Germany.

To be fair, after Hamburg lost its seventh constituency back in 2005,it has become pretty difficult to split up the seven city boroughs onto six constituencies. Those constituencies that could sensibly take up parts of Hamburg-Mitte, namely Bergedorf-Harburg, Wandsbek, and Nord, are not much smaller. Having said that, the local SPD is anything but unhappy for the constituency to include some blue-collar suburbs (Billstedt, Finkenwerder, etc.) that keep it from falling to the Greens (which could at least have happened in 2009).
The more relevant case, however, is Hamburg-Nord, which contains all the wealthy suburbs along the Alster River, whether belonging to the Borough of Wandsbek or the Borough of Hamburg-Nord, as such packing most of the CDU-leaning districts into one constituency to ensure that in normal years (i.e. anything aside from 2009), the CDU gains only one and the SPD the other five Hamburg constituencies.

On the state level, the outgoing CDU/FDP coalition in Schleswig-Holstein strongly gerrymandered electoral districts back in 2012. First, they made heavy use of the 25% deviation tolerance to maximise the number of state constituencies on the west coast and in the North, which traditionally lean CDU. The smallest state constituency,  Flensburg-Land, contained slightly below 51.000 registered voters and was safely taken by the CDU. Other constituencies with less than 60,000 voters include Schleswig-Nord (CDU), Schleswig (CDU), Dithmarschen-Nord (CDU), Dithmarschen-Süd (CDU), Kiel-Ost (SPD), Steinburg-West (CDU), Steinburg-Ost (CDU), Pinneberg-Elbmarschen (CDU), and Pinneberg City (SPD).

This allowed them to deny a third constituency to the traditional SPD stronghold of Lübeck, instead  combining part of the city with its northern suburbs. The resulting constituency of Ostholstein-Süd is quite competitive (in 2012, the CDU won it by 0.9%). Remaining Ostholstein-Nord was expected to be safely locked in for the CDU), but was in an upset carried by the SPD in 2012 with an 0.5% margin (the proposed Fehmarnbelt link hurt the CDU heavily). All four a/m constituencies have close to 75,000 registered voters, Lübeck-Ost is, at 76.205 voters, the largest constituency in the state. As such, it would have easily been possibly to design five constituencies of around 60,000 voters each in the area.
 
They also combined SPD-leaning medium-sized cities with extensive rural hinterland. Neumunster (61,000 voters) was combined with neighbouring Boostedt, which holds the State's largest army camp. This reduced the SPD's margin from 2.7% on city level to 1.5% on constituency level, thus making the constituency potentially competitive.
The old, quite small Rendsburg constituency (48,000 voters), that would have been narrowly won by the SPD in 2012, was enlarged by rural areas to the south-west, which ensured a safe CDU win. Had it been enlarged by the south-eastern Rendsburg suburbs instead, the resulting constituency (58,000 voters) would have been extremely competitive - a calculated CDU lead of 128 votes (0.4%) in 2012. In a similar way, the enlarged Eckernförde constituency (72,500 registered voters) received sufficient rural areas to water down the SPD lean in Eckenrnförde town and the Kiel suburbs south of it, and keep it safely in CDU hands.

[palandio]

Who is the winner of our inofficial prediction contest? (I hope that I didn't forget anyone and that I did the calculations correctly.)

According to the sum rule it's
1. Tender Branson 5.6 (best)
2. Vosem 5.8
3. Yeahsayyeah, Vasall des Midas 8.0
5. jaichind 8.2
6. palandio 9.4
7. ERvND 10.8
8. Franknburger 14.4

If we use the pythagorean distance we get
1. Vosem 2.69
2. Tender Branson 3.14
3. Vasall des Midas 3.57
4. Yeahsayyeah 4.15
5. jaichind 4.58
6. ERvND 4.64
7. palandio 5.41
8. Franknburger 7.32

All of us had the FDP wrongly above 5%; Tender Branson, jaichind and Franknburger were also wrong about the AfD.
The result that was responsible for most of the penalties was the CDU/CSU result. ERvND predicted the CDU/CSU surge best, but got too much penalty for the rest of his predictions.

[minionofmidas]

While under the previous rules, we'd have taken the national result, distributed seats proportionally:
CDU 242 SPD 182 Left 61 Greens 60 CSU 53
then distributed that to the state parties, and if any state party won more direct seats than what it was due, it got to keep those extra seats without anybody losing any but also without equalization - though vacancies in that state party would not have been filled until the anomaly was resolved (making it hazardous to govern on overhang seats alone).

I only calculated this for the CDU:
Schleswig Holstein 10, Hamburg 5, Lower Saxony 30, Bremen 2, North Rhine Westphalia 61, Hessen 20, Rhineland Pfalz 15, Saarland 3+1, Baden Württemberg 42, Berlin 8, Mecklenburg Lower Pomerania 6, Brandenburg 8+1, Saxony Anhalt 8+1, Saxony 16, Thuringia 8+1
So 246 mandates total (+53 for the CSU = 299, vs 303 opposition assuming no overhang for the SPD in Hamburg, which looks a reasonably safe assumption.)

[minionofmidas]

Who is the winner of our inofficial prediction contest? (I hope that I didn't forget anyone and that I did the calculations correctly.)

According to the sum rule it's
1. Tender Branson 5.6 (best)
2. Vosem 5.8
3. Yeahsayyeah, Vasall des Midas 8.0
5. jaichind 8.2
6. palandio 9.4
7. ERvND 10.8
8. Franknburger 14.4

If we use the pythagorean distance we get
1. Vosem 2.69
2. Tender Branson 3.14
3. Vasall des Midas 3.57
4. Yeahsayyeah 4.15
5. jaichind 4.58
6. ERvND 4.64
7. palandio 5.41
8. Franknburger 7.32

All of us had the FDP wrongly above 5%; Tender Branson, jaichind and Franknburger were also wrong about the AfD.
The result that was responsible for most of the penalties was the CDU/CSU result. ERvND predicted the CDU/CSU surge best, but got too much penalty for the rest of his predictions.

I didn't make a prediction.

[ingemann]

Also, Hamburg-Mitte which is I the largest constituency in Germany.

To be fair, after Hamburg lost its seventh constituency back in 2005,it has become pretty difficult to split up the seven city boroughs onto six constituencies. Those constituencies that could sensibly take up parts of Hamburg-Mitte, namely Bergedorf-Harburg, Wandsbek, and Nord, are not much smaller. Having said that, the local SPD is anything but unhappy for the constituency to include some blue-collar suburbs (Billstedt, Finkenwerder, etc.) that keep it from falling to the Greens (which could at least have happened in 2009).
The more relevant case, however, is Hamburg-Nord, which contains all the wealthy suburbs along the Alster River, whether belonging to the Borough of Wandsbek or the Borough of Hamburg-Nord, as such packing most of the CDU-leaning districts into one constituency to ensure that in normal years (i.e. anything aside from 2009), the CDU gains only one and the SPD the other five Hamburg constituencies.

On the state level, the outgoing CDU/FDP coalition in Schleswig-Holstein strongly gerrymandered electoral districts back in 2012. First, they made heavy use of the 25% deviation tolerance to maximise the number of state constituencies on the west coast and in the North, which traditionally lean CDU. The smallest state constituency,  Flensburg-Land, contained slightly below 51.000 registered voters and was safely taken by the CDU. Other constituencies with less than 60,000 voters include Schleswig-Nord (CDU), Schleswig (CDU), Dithmarschen-Nord (CDU), Dithmarschen-Süd (CDU), Kiel-Ost (SPD), Steinburg-West (CDU), Steinburg-Ost (CDU), Pinneberg-Elbmarschen (CDU), and Pinneberg City (SPD).

This allowed them to deny a third constituency to the traditional SPD stronghold of Lübeck, instead  combining part of the city with its northern suburbs. The resulting constituency of Ostholstein-Süd is quite competitive (in 2012, the CDU won it by 0.9%). Remaining Ostholstein-Nord was expected to be safely locked in for the CDU), but was in an upset carried by the SPD in 2012 with an 0.5% margin (the proposed Fehmarnbelt link hurt the CDU heavily). All four a/m constituencies have close to 75,000 registered voters, Lübeck-Ost is, at 76.205 voters, the largest constituency in the state. As such, it would have easily been possibly to design five constituencies of around 60,000 voters each in the area.
 
They also combined SPD-leaning medium-sized cities with extensive rural hinterland. Neumunster (61,000 voters) was combined with neighbouring Boostedt, which holds the State's largest army camp. This reduced the SPD's margin from 2.7% on city level to 1.5% on constituency level, thus making the constituency potentially competitive.
The old, quite small Rendsburg constituency (48,000 voters), that would have been narrowly won by the SPD in 2012, was enlarged by rural areas to the south-west, which ensured a safe CDU win. Had it been enlarged by the south-eastern Rendsburg suburbs instead, the resulting constituency (58,000 voters) would have been extremely competitive - a calculated CDU lead of 128 votes (0.4%) in 2012. In a similar way, the enlarged Eckernförde constituency (72,500 registered voters) received sufficient rural areas to water down the SPD lean in Eckenrnförde town and the Kiel suburbs south of it, and keep it safely in CDU hands.

Not really something which surprise me, after I have read up on CDU's and FDP attempts to get SSW's mandates eliminated in the Landtag through judicial means.

[minionofmidas]

Also, Hamburg-Mitte which is I the largest constituency in Germany.

To be fair, after Hamburg lost its seventh constituency back in 2005,it has become pretty difficult to split up the seven city boroughs onto six constituencies. Those constituencies that could sensibly take up parts of Hamburg-Mitte, namely Bergedorf-Harburg, Wandsbek, and Nord, are not much smaller. Having said that, the local SPD is anything but unhappy for the constituency to include some blue-collar suburbs (Billstedt, Finkenwerder, etc.) that keep it from falling to the Greens (which could at least have happened in 2009).
The more relevant case, however, is Hamburg-Nord, which contains all the wealthy suburbs along the Alster River, whether belonging to the Borough of Wandsbek or the Borough of Hamburg-Nord, as such packing most of the CDU-leaning districts into one constituency to ensure that in normal years (i.e. anything aside from 2009), the CDU gains only one and the SPD the other five Hamburg constituencies.

Yes - I was talking of malapportionment, not of gerrymandering. Eimsbüttel and/or Altona have room to grow, which is a bit awkward since they're the two constituencies to consist of a whole borough each. There's that bit of Nord (borough) in Mitte (constituency) - could that be transferred to Eimsbüttel at some point? I haven't done the sums.

Anyways something has to be done - Hamburg Mitte was 24.9% over the average as of december 31st 2012, though that was on the not-Volkszählung-modified data. (And that's German population - it's 40% over the average on total population!)

[palandio]

You could call the Munich districts gerrymandered (on the federal and the state level):

On the federal level there are four districts that are all very heterogenous, but show very similar total results:
In München-Nord inner-city upscale Schwabing and Maxvorstadt are combined with the (relatively) poor northern perifery (e.g. Hasenbergl).
In München-Ost you have inner-city green strongholds like Au-Haidhausen, upscale suburban-type quarters in Bogenhausen and Waldtrudering, social housing in parts of Berg am Laim and Ramersdorf and West Germany's largest housing estate Neuperlach.
In München-Süd left-leaning inner-city perifery Giesing and Sendling are combined with upscale suburban Solln and Harlaching.
München-West-Mitte reaches from inner-city green strongholds like Isarvorstadt and Schwanthalerhöhe to suburban-conservative Untermenzing and Aubing.

You could easily carve out some left-leaning consitutuency in the southern inner-city.

On the state level it's the same, though the CSU has moved from the cracking tactic to the packing tactic in München-Milbertshofen when it shifted red Southern Neuhausen into this SPD-held constituency.

P.S.: @Vasall des Midas: You cited the result of some prediction contest and exchanged Left and Greens. If you want me to exclude you from the prediction contest, I will.

[minionofmidas]

And as expected, we also got our first black Bundestag member ever, even though he failed to win the direct seat in Halle: Karamba Diaby.

Nor is he the only one.



Charles M Huber, grandnephew of Léopold Sédar Senghor, tv actor, freshly baked CDU MdB - he narrowly lost his direct seat too (in Darmstadt) but was the fourth of four people to get in over the state list.

[minionofmidas]

If you want me to exclude you from the prediction contest, I will.

God, no. I was just wondering. Why should I object to taking third place in a competition I didn't enter?

Though I also posted another set of figures later - something rumored to be a leaked exit poll, which in hindsight was probably true.

Union 41 #SPD 26 #FDP 4,8 #AFD 5 #Grüne 10 #Linke 9

Just out of interest - it certainly wasn't a prediction. Though I did say the votes to get AfD and FDP both over 5 might just not be there - how does that score?

[Franknburger]

NPD PV, automatically generated from http://vis.uell.net/btw/13/atlas.html
Colouring in 1%-steps, from <1 to >4

2009


2013


Best results in Sächs. Schweiz-Osterzgebirge (5.1,-0.7),Vorpommern-Greifswald II (4.6, -0.6) and Gorlitz (4.2, -1.3). Note the strong correlation in the East between AfD and NPD vote.
Weakest (0,3 %) in Köln II (-0,6),  Munster (-0,1), Stuttgart II (-0.5) and München-Land (-0,3). but below 1% across pretty much of north-western and western Germany and southern Bavaria.
Duisburg II (3.4%, +1.4) is standing out in the West; adjacent Duisburg I and Oberhausen-Wesel II also had the NPD going up by almost a percent. Seems the Western Ruhr is not only economically approaching the East German periphery. Bremen II- Bremerhaven (and probably especially the latter, which is now having the highest unemployment rate in all of Germany) also saw the NPD gaining slightly (+0.2 %).

[minionofmidas]

The Nordkurier (local rag from Neubrandenburg) accidentally published the exit poll 20 minutes early - which is probably as soon as it got it - on its website. It is now facing a fine of 50,000 Euros.

Damn. Why didn't any of us think of checking the Nordkurier website!

[minionofmidas]

33% women in the new Bundestag - 23% CDU/CSU, 40% SPD, 54% Greens, 55% Left

[palandio]

If you want me to exclude you from the prediction contest, I will.

God, no. I was just wondering. Why should I object to taking third place in a competition I didn't enter?

Though I also posted another set of figures later - something rumored to be a leaked exit poll, which in hindsight was probably true.

Union 41 #SPD 26 #FDP 4,8 #AFD 5 #Grüne 10 #Linke 9

Just out of interest - it certainly wasn't a prediction. Though I did say the votes to get AfD and FDP both over 5 might just not be there - how does that score?

There is a little problem with the leaked rumors because they don't include a Pirate result; overall they are slightly ahead of Tender Branson according to the some rule and very, very slightly behind Vosem according to the pythagorean rule (mainly because the leaked rumor underestimated the "others" share heavily). Though the prediction that the FDP would remain out would have won you an extra point. Sadly this was a bit too late to be a prediction that could be included without becoming unfair.

@Franknburger: Maybe the NPD result in Duisburg is due to local issues (i.e. conflicts about Roma immigration).