2013 Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

How would Germany's 14-17 year olds vote ? Infratest Dimap polled 500 of them:

[Middle-aged Europe]

At this point, Steinbrück probably thought "who cares?"

[freefair]

How would Germany's 14-17 year olds vote ? Infratest Dimap polled 500 of them:

Is this more evidence of young people Worldwide are leaning more to the right, apart from their US counterparts who are moving to the left

[MaxQue]

How would Germany's 14-17 year olds vote ? Infratest Dimap polled 500 of them:

Is this more evidence of young people Worldwide are leaning more to the right, apart from their US counterparts who are moving to the left

As the right is polling lower in this poll than in the elections polls, I don't see how this is a possible conclusion.

[palandio]

My final Bavaria numbers:
CSU ca. 46%
SPD ca. 19.5%
Greens ca. 11%
Free Voters ca. 9%
FDP ca. 3.5%
Others ca. 11% (including Left ca. 2.5% and Pirates ca. 2%)
---> Absolute Majority CSU (46% vs. 39.5%)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As the right is polling lower in this poll than in the elections polls, I don't see how this is a possible conclusion.

You come to this conclusion by cherry picking surveys that seem to fit the claim or even by cherry picking parts that seem to from surveys that probably don't.

[Franknburger]

How would Germany's 14-17 year olds vote ? Infratest Dimap polled 500 of them:

To put it into context: This was their polling  two years ago (14-17 yr. old on the left, eligible voters on the right):


And this might explain some things - only 23% of kids are strongly interested in politics:


Mock elections in our childrens' school classes had the CDU far in front, as kids wanted to be on the "winning side", also because "everybody is voting CDU",  which is true here, where countryside meets Hamburg exurbia.
Our oldest daughter (18) recently told us about a friend, who had voted CDU in this spring's local election for the latter reason.  That friend is from a farmer family in the village, but otherwise anything but a classical CDU voter (growing weed at home, etc.). Anyway, our daughter is working on her...  

[Franknburger]

Here another infratest dimap poll among 18-29 yr. old voters (Sept. 8 )


37% black-yellow vs. 48% red-red-green.

Most important issues:


Labour market-related       34
Education (finance)            39
Families & child care             8
Wages & income                  7

Are the concerns of young people sufficiently considered in politics?


And, for context, here the age breakdown of the electorate:

Age Group 18–20  21–29 30–39 40–49 50–59 60–69 70 & over Total First-time voters

Million 2.2 7.7 8.2 11.3 11.5 8.4 12.4 61.8 3.0

Share % 3,6 12,5 13,2 18,3 18,7 13,6 20.1 100.0           4.8

Guess why youngsters feel neglected, and half of the TV debates was about pensions..

[Leftbehind]

Is this more evidence of young people Worldwide are leaning more to the right, apart from their US counterparts who are moving to the left

"More evidence" lol.

[Tender Branson]

My Bayern state elections prediction:

47.7% CSU (+4%)
19.4% SPD (+1%)
10.2% Greens (+1%)
  7.5% FW (-3%)
  4.1% FDP (-4%)
  2.8% Pirates (+3%)
  2.5% Left (-2%)
  1.6% ÖDP (nc)
  4.2% Others

Turnout: 55% (+/- 3%)

[palandio]

My Bayern state elections "others" prediction in detail:
Left 2.5% (-1.8%)
Piraten 2.1% (+2.1%)
ÖDP 2.0% (+-0%)
REP 1.7% (+0.3%)
BP 1.5% (+0.4%)
NPD 0.7% (-0.5%) [failed to provide valid lists for Upper Bavaria and Lower Franconia]
Others 0.5% (+0.1%)

turnout ca. 56%

[Tender Branson]

ARD and ZDF out with their latest polls (average):

40.0% CDU/CSU
27.0% SPD
10.5% Greens
  8.0% Left
  5.5% FDP

Guess what ?

45.5% CDU/CSU-FDP
45.5% SPD-Greens-Left

Could be fun.

[RogueBeaver]

Steinbruck literally gives journalists the finger. Joke candidate.

[Franknburger]

Time for the next "poll of polls" update, this time covering Allensbach (4.9.), FORSA (4.9.), infratest dimap  (5.9.), FG Wahlen (5.9.), EMNID (1.9.), and INSA/TNS (2.9.):

CDU:        40.0 (40.2)
SPD:        25.0 (24.8 )
Grüne:     11.2 (12.3)
Linke:        8.4  (7.8 )
FDP:          5.5  (5.7)
Pirates       2.6  (2.5)
AfD            3.2  (3.0)
Others        4.1 (3.8 )

45.5 black-yellow vs. 44.6 red-red-green, and AfD slowly getting traction.

This will probably be the last "pol. of polls". Traditionally, polling in Germany stops one week before the election, though some pollsters may do and publish another one next week. Anyway, today we have  FORSA (11.9.), infratest dimap  (12.9.), FG Wahlen (13.9.), EMNID (8.9.), GMS (10.9.) and INSA/TNS (9.9.). As the trends can be deducted from the quote above, this time I add the min-max range in brackets:

CDU:        39.7  (39 40)
SPD:         26.2 (25-28 )
Grüne:      10.5 ( 9 -11)
Linke:         8.7 ( 8 -10)
FDP:           5.2 ( 4 - 6)
Pirates       2.7  ( 2 -3)
AfD             3.1 (2.5-4)
Others       4.1 ( 3  -5)

44.9 (43-46) black-yellow vs. 45.2 (44-47) red-red-green. Prepare for a long election night...

According to today's FG Wahlen poll, 64% have decided their vote, 14% will definitely vote but may still change their preference, while 22% are yet unsure whether they will vote at all.

Among likely voters, 88% of those leaning CDU have already firmly decided, meaning that the maximum FDP "loan vote" is slightly above 4% (probably less for the "shy right-winger" effect).
The highest shares of yet unsure voters are among Grüne (33%) and Linke (28%) leaners. As such, we may well see the SPD over performing the polls (strengthening their weight in a possible grand coalition), but also a Pirate surprise.

Opinion on possible coalitions (FG Wahlen, positive/negative; infratest, positive only):

Grand coalition    50/29         47
Red-green           36/47         41
Black-yellow        35/42         38
Black-green         23/49         21
Red-red-green    20/64         24

[ZuWo]

Steinbruck literally gives journalists the finger. Joke candidate.

And I thought Steinbrück and his party accused Merkel of being superficial in her election campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously if he had a chance of winning, that kind of thing would be a mistake (except in Australia, presumably), as it is its maybe better to at least try to come across as deliberately 'abrasive' (ahem) than as a dull old guy who sometimes says stupid things.

[minionofmidas]

And I thought Steinbrück and his party accused Merkel of being superficial in her election campaign.

You certainly couldn't accuse her of introducing politics into the election campaign, so they'll have to try something else.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Steinbrück stunt worked... he managed to take over the headlines. And the headlines weren't actually that bad. It ranged from "WTF?" to "Steinbrück got balls", "He's got nothing to lose" and "Will it hurt or help him?"

[Sozialliberal]

Note that the interview with Steinbrück was not a normal interview. The "Süddeutsche Zeitung Magazin" publishes the interview series "Sagen Sie jetzt nichts" (Don't Say Anything Now) in which the interviewees don't answer with words but with gestures and facial expressions. I don't think you should take Steinbrück's middle finger response too seriously.

You can find the whole interview under (I can't post links ):
sz-magazin dot sueddeutsche dot de/texte/bildergalerie/40461/1/Sagen-Sie-jetzt-nichts-Peer-Steinbrueck#bild

1st question: Mr Steinbrück, you and your wife have been married for 38 years. Your tip for a long, happy marriage?

2nd question: Pannen-Peer (Mishap Peer), Problem-Peer (a reference to the "problem bear" Bruno), Peerlusconi – you don't have to worry about nice nicknames, do you? (Steinbrück gave the middle finger response to this question.)

3rd question: Only 28 per cent would currently vote for the SPD. Is it your fault?

4th question: FDP leader Philipp Rösler denies your ability to be a chancellor. Do you have a message for him?

5th question: A question of style: Do you wear an undergarment underneath your shirt?

6th question: On a scale of one to ten: How well does Angela Merkel manage the crisis? (1 = abysmally, 10 = masterfully)

7th question: How would you react if the Greens formed a coalition with the Union (CDU/CSU) for lack of alternatives after all?

[Franknburger]

Here some more extracts from the "Interview without words":
http://sz-magazin.sueddeutsche.de/texte/bildergalerie/40461/7/Sagen-Sie-jetzt-nichts-Peer-Steinbrueck#bild

"Mr. Steinbrück - the SPD is currently polling at only 28%. Is that your fault?"


"FDP leader Rösler denies your ability to act as chancellor. Do you have a message for him?"


"On a scale from 1 (disastrous) to 10 (excellent), how good is Angela Merkel as crisis manager?"


"How would you react, if after the election the Greens for lack of alternatives enter a coalition with the CDU?"


I especially like the Rösler one! Anyway, it was clear which of the pictures entered the public debate (and I assume it was not SPD HQ that pushed for it).

[minionofmidas]

The Süddeutsche decision to put it on the cover might have something to do with that.

[You kip if you want to...]

"How would you react, if after the election the Greens for lack of alternatives enter a coalition with the CDU?"

That'd be a gift, wouldn't it?

[minionofmidas]

"for lack of alternatives"? That would mean either that the Greens have overtaken the SPD (and a classical Grand Coalition has no majority). Or that CDU-SPD negotiations have previously failed somehow, which is hard to imagine without a secret bidding war as to who can fall over the hardest going on at the same time.

[minionofmidas]

Why are the Greens starting to crash and burn?

Turns out running on a platform of raising taxes isn't such a good idea after all...

Especially if the only people who believe you are the ones who'd have to pay them.

[minionofmidas]

What a bizarre story!

German newspapers report that a man tried to blackmail Steinbrück for having illegally employed a Philippine cleaning lady 14 years ago. According to Spiegel, Steinbrück and his wife deny these allegations and have already informed the police.

The man has no been exposed as a fairly senior quango executive and CDU member.

And current employer of the woman in question. The claim that there was anything illegal about her marginal employment situation with the Steinbrücks ages ago is apparently incorrect.
He self-reported to police at the advice of his lawyer (ie, he was told he'd be traceable.) He also makes a claim to have written the letter in spontaneous anger, decided against sending it, then sent it anyways by mistake. This latter bit, we're being led to believe, is unlikely to be true - the sent in anger, not a huge rightwing conspiracy part is probably true. (Though who knows...)