2013 Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

Infratest, 12.02.2013, Bavaria (state election)

CSU: 46%
SPD: 19%
Grüne: 15%
FW: 8%

FDP: 3%
Piraten: 3%
Linke: 2%

CSU with an absolute majority (46-42).

[Franknburger]

Infratest, 12.02.2013, Bavaria (state election)

CSU: 46%
SPD: 19%
Grüne: 15%
FW: 8%

FDP: 3%
Piraten: 3%
Linke: 2%

CSU with an absolute majority (46-42).

The survey was for the Bavarian Greens. I wonder why they published it. Do they want to re-vitalise the debate on the black-green option (under the assumption that CSU loan votes help the FDP over 5%) ?

[Franzl]

Forsa, 13.02.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 43%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 3%
Piraten: 3%

CDU/CSU not extremely far from absolute majority (43-46).
Red-Green nowhere near a majority (39-50).

[ERvND]

CDU/CSU not extremely far from absolute majority (43-46).

I'm still absolutely convinced that there will be no absolute majority in these elections. In the end, CDU/CSU will inevitably lose votes to the FDP, even if there is no "Zweitstimmen-Kampagne". At the end of the day, the result will look more like CDU/CSU 39%, FDP 8%.

[Franzl]

CDU/CSU not extremely far from absolute majority (43-46).

I'm still absolutely convinced that there will be no absolute majority in these elections. In the end, CDU/CSU will inevitably lose votes to the FDP, even if there is no "Zweitstimmen-Kampagne". At the end of the day, the result will look more like CDU/CSU 39%, FDP 8%.

I tend to agree.

[Franknburger]

Infratest dimap, for ARD, 15.2.2013:

CDU 40 (+1)
SPD 27 (-2)
Grüne 16 (+1)
Linke 7 (+1)

FDP 4 ()
Piraten 3()
Others 3 (-1)

Don't know any specific reason why SPD is going down again. Schawan affair has obviously not hurt the CDU. Highest value for Grüne since February 2012.

[Franknburger]

EMNID, 17.02.2013:

CDU        41 (+1)
SPD         27 ()
Grüne      15 ()
Linke        6 (-1)

FDP          4 ()
Piraten     3 (-1)
Others     4 (+1)

GMS, 19.02.2013:

CDU        40 (-2)
SPD         27 (+1)
Grüne      15 ()
Linke        6 ()

FDP          5 ()
Piraten     3 ()
Others     4 (+1)

Divergent trends, but essentially pollsters (including Infratest dimap of Friday) come out with the same finding of black-yellow 44-45 vs. red-green 42-43 vs. Linke/Piraten/others 13.

[Franknburger]

And here the GMS raw polling (wihtout trend adjustment etc., compared to Jan 29):

CDU     39.9 (-2.3)
SPD      27.0 (+0.7)
Grüne   15.3 (+0.6)
Linke      6.1 (-0.2)
FDP        4.7 (-0.2)
Piraten    2.5 ()
FW         1.7 (+0.8 )
Others    2.8 (+1.4)

Non-voters/ undecided  27.4 (-2.0)

Trend since Christmas: CDU unchanged, Greens win 2% from SPD, FDP up 0.5%, Linke down 0,8%, Prates down 0.9%, FW up 0.8%.

[Franzl]

Stephan Weil (SPD) elected Ministerpräsident of Niedersachsen by a vote of 69-68.

[Franknburger]

Trouble ahead in Thuringia's CDU-SPD coalition:

Yesterday, the local "Thüringer Allgemeine" newspaper came out with the title "Lieberknecht [CDU PM] and Maschke [SPD leader] rehearse for break of coalition".  
Essentially, the conflict is on how to best reduce state-level expenditure. The CDU blames the SPD for not bringing forward reforms (i.e. cost-cutting proposals) related to the financing of Universities & Theatres, while the SPD criticises the CDU's unwillingness to tackle overdue administrative and territorial reform.

Thuringia is currently divided into a total of 23 counties, with an average county population of slightly below 100,000, less than half of the German average. Some of the counties are strongly indebted and hardly able to fulfil their responsibilities. In addition, the state government maintains a heavily staffed "Office for Administration" outside the minsterial structure to ensure coordination between state ministries, counties and communities.

Most other East German states, facing a similar situation, have during the recent years reduced their number of counties (Saxony-Anhalt 2007 from 24 to 14, Saxony 2008 from 29 to 13 counties, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2011 from 18 to 8 ). The issue is also on the agenda in Lower Saxony and, most notably, was one of the main reasons for the break-up of the CDU-SPD coalition in Schleswig-Holstein in 2009.

In the 2009 Thuringia state election campaign, SPD, Grüne and Linke all came out with proposals for adminstrative and territorial reform. The CDU's approach has always been lackluster, however, they agreed to forming an expert commission. Last month, the commission'proposed to merge the existing 23 counties into 10 new counties (see picture below). The proposal has immediately met opposition from CDU county-level politicians, some of which even indicated that their county might leave Thuringia to instead join Lower Saxony and Bavaria, respectively.



In the meantime, the Linke has criticised the commision proposal as not going far enough, and especially not tackling reform of state-level administration. They have brought forward their own model, which they claim to be able to reduce administrative expenditure by more than 50 million Euro per year through empowerment of commnities, simplifying funding mechanisms of communities and counties, and cutting away the full layer of state-level sub-ministerial administration.

Note that Linke (27 seats), SPD (18) and Grüne (7) together hold a majority of state parliament seats. This will be interesting to watch, also in relation to possible federal-level coalitions !

[RogueBeaver]

Question about the federal election: What's the PV trigger for an absolute majority? 45%? Higher? Since some polls have CDU/CSU in the low 40s. I don't think Merkel can eke out many more votes for Team Black unless the SPD drops below 25%, which seems unlikely unless Steinbruck outdoes himself again in the gaffe department. (Debates maybe?)

[Franzl]

Question about the federal election: What's the PV trigger for an absolute majority? 45%? Higher? Since some polls have CDU/CSU in the low 40s. I don't think Merkel can eke out many more votes for Team Black unless the SPD drops below 25%, which seems unlikely unless Steinbruck outdoes himself again in the gaffe department. (Debates maybe?)

Well....the trigger is whatever is higher than all other parties (that are represented in parliament) combined....

In reality...probably 46-47, I'd say.

[RogueBeaver]

So almost certainly not happening then. Grand it is.

[Franzl]

So almost certainly not happening then. Grand it is.

Well it could be lower, if say, Linke, FDP and Pirates were all at 4.9%, say Then even 40-42 could theoretically suffice. Pretty big if, of course

[minionofmidas]

Are they just hating on Gera coz it's a very GDRy place or what? Altenburgers are not going to like that either.
Most of the rest looks highly reasonable actually (including the Schmalkalden vs Meiningen split along the old line) though the two northwestern mergers needed to be aligned north-south rather than east-west.

[Franknburger]

Are they just hating on Gera coz it's a very GDRy place or what? Altenburgers are not going to like that either.
Most of the rest looks highly reasonable actually (including the Schmalkalden vs Meiningen split along the old line) though the two northwestern mergers needed to be aligned north-south rather than east-west.

The Catholic Eichsfeld is of course unhappy to lose its "independence" and be merged with any of their Protestant neighbours, and Sonneberg feels more Frankonian than Thuringian.

Gera has since 1990 nearly lost a third of its population. and is projected to have less than 80,000 inhabitants by 2030. Greiz and Altenburger Land have each lost more than 20% population since the counties were created in 1994. For the city of Altenburg (51,400 inhabitants by December 31st, 1989), the Bertelsmann Foundation projects a population of only 25,000 by 2030, with an average age of 59 years !

With all respect for historical traditions and local sentiment, the current structure is not sustainable. The Thuringian citizens need to decide whether to spend money on education and infrastructure, or on upholding dozens of miny-counties, each with a fully-fledged administrative structure and nicely-paid administration and department heads. They won't be able to have both!

When you consider demographic trends, even the commission's 10-district proposal is half-baked.
It is great to look at how a few other organisations have been dealing with the problem:

Here is the new league structure of the Thuringian Football Association (9 'county leagues', already decided)



This is  the 4-district structure of the DGB (labour union):


And here the 3-district structure of Chambers  of Commerce



The good message is that this decision is being put on the state's political agenda by the SPD. The real surprise to me is that the state-level Linke  is bringing forward proposals that may put up to 20,000 officials out of their jobs  Interesting contrast to what is coming from the Federal party leadership.

[minionofmidas]

Are they just hating on Gera coz it's a very GDRy place or what? Altenburgers are not going to like that either.
Most of the rest looks highly reasonable actually (including the Schmalkalden vs Meiningen split along the old line) though the two northwestern mergers needed to be aligned north-south rather than east-west.

The Catholic Eichsfeld is of course unhappy to lose its "independence" and be merged with any of their Protestant neighbours

Ah, but there are some more Catholics just outside the boundaries. Towards the southeast, not towards the northeast.

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That's just as true in Hildburghausen. The Rennsteig is the dialect line. (The first time I ever met someone from the area, which I have never set foot into, I had recently heard about that and I immediately placed his accent despite having never heard it before. Franconian base + a slight touch of something easterly and some GDR-typical words. 'twasn't hard. "Sorry for asking, but are you by any chance from southern Thuringia?")

And out east I'd make three districts out of their two, with Altenburg taking only the northeastern part of Greiz (part of which is historical Altenburg anyways.) So yeah, that leaves the Altenburg district undersized, shrug. The next district to the west could be viewed as vaguely continuing the ancient country of Reuß.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thuringia... my strongest personal memory of Thuringia is that I had to spend about a week in Sondershausen back in 2001 when I was doing my civilian service. During the day we attended seminars about democracy and right-wing extremism and such things and in the evening we were watching Lethal Weapon movies in the recreation room. You can believe me, this was also about the only thing you could in Sondershausen... it was almost literally at the ass end of nowhere.

[minionofmidas]

A friend of mine has the mildly amusing habit of using "Sondershausen" as an intensifying suffix. "Das ist ja eine Scheiße sondershausen."

[Franknburger]

"Sorry for asking, but are you by any chance from southern Thuringia?")

No, but my mother's line is from southern Lower Saxony (my parents first met in Göttingen), so the Eichsfeld is always somewhere on the  radar. And my godfather's son, whom I used to see pretty regularly during holidays as a child and student, lives in Meiningen. 

I spent a few days in Thuringia in the summer of 1990. Pretty weird: Stopped in Eisenach for a coffee - typically Eastern, annoyed waitress, unfriendly, no smile, keeps you waiting for half an hour, classical GDR accent etc.
Then I moved on to Weimar, arriving there after 18:00 and fearing for the worst since I did not have any accommodation. Surprise, surprise: Seff-organised tourism office, still open, with friendly and effective staff, speaking without notable accent. They had turned the former local Stasi HQ into a hostel, and I spent the night in a refurbished former prisoner cell (one of the strangest accommodations I have ever had !). Squatted house right around the corner, announcing punk concerts for the weekend - it felt incredibly 'western'.
This made my understand that Thuringia is quite a microcosmos of its own.

B.t.w. - I assume it is o.k. to temporarily use this thread for a bit of chatter, since over the next days everybody will be focusing on the Italian elections ..

[minionofmidas]

"Sorry for asking, but are you by any chance from southern Thuringia?")

I wasn't asking you that. I was asking that elderly drunkard I was reminiscing about above.

[ERvND]

The good message is that this decision is being put on the state's political agenda by the SPD.

While the reform itself might be reasonable, I think it's not a clever decision to campaign for it. The dissolution or merger of local administrative units is never popular. If the state SPD supports this reform, their local officials will be in deep trouble.

[Franknburger]

The good message is that this decision is being put on the state's political agenda by the SPD.

While the reform itself might be reasonable, I think it's not a clever decision to campaign for it. The dissolution or merger of local administrative units is never popular. If the state SPD supports this reform, their local officials will be in deep trouble.

I read somewhere in the regional newspapers that 80% of Thuringians support some kind of territorial reforms. Even though approval will inevitably go down when the reform becomes specific and people see their particular region being affected, support for reform is still pretty high. Remember - the alternative the CDU is currently proposing is cutting funding for city theatres and universities, which should not be too popular as well.

In any case - I personally am always happy if parties dare to discuss potentially unpopular, but important issues, thereby demonstrating trust in voter's intelligence. The whole gaffe/ plagiarism/ sexism stuff gets more and more annoying ...

[Franknburger]

Lots of new polls over the last days:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (for ZDF), 22.02.13:

Party lean - the pure, unedited raw polling stuff (Changes againt Jan 29, 2013)

CDU       41 (-4)
SPD       33 (+2)
Grüne     15 (+2)
FDP        3 (+1)
Linke      5 ()

others (including Pirates!)    3 (-1)

Non-voters           14% (+7)
Unsure if voting    13% (+1)

Quite a swing towards red-green, which move close to absolute majority. Increase in vote abstention appears to primarily hurt CDU, Linke and Pirates. Note, however, that it is "sunbird" season, which typically reduces CDU scores. 

And their projection (the edited version)

CDU       40 (-1)
SPD       30 (+1)
Grüne     14 (+1)
FDP        4 ()
Linke      6 ()
Piraten   2 (-1)
others    4 ()

So their projection is essentially shifting 1% CDU 'loan votes' to FDP, 1% from SPD to Linke, 1% from CDU to "others" (NPD, Freie Wähler),  1% each from SPD & Grüne to Piraten/ others.

Prefered Coalition:
SPD/Grüne                        25 (-4)
CDU / SPD                        26  (+4)
CDU/FPD                           11  (-6)
None of the above              38 (+6)

Party competencies:

Economy:
CDU                40 (-8)
SPD                 19  (+4)
others              21 (+6)
none                20 (-2)

Social justice
CDU               21
SPD               37
FDP                 2
Linke               6
Grüne             7
none              12

Energy
CDU             19
SPD              12
FDP                2
Linke              1
Grüne          37
None            11

[Franknburger]

After Steinbrück's latest gaffe on the "two italian clowns", I just wait for Die PARTEI to nominate Stefan Raab as their candidate for chancellorship, and we have the SPD going down below 20%.