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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  South Carolina (search mode)
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Author Topic: South Carolina  (Read 3010 times)
True Federalist
Ernest
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« on: December 17, 2012, 01:52:36 pm »

And the trend though slow is clear. If the current national alignment holds long enough, with Blacks having a higher birthrate than native Whites and northern White immigration to the Charleston area, South Carolina will become a swing state eventually.

Charleston county swung and trended against Obama.

Charleston County went from 61.9% White and 34.5% Black in the 2000 Census to 64.2% White and 29.8% Black in the 2010 Census.  The Black population of Charleston County actually went down from 107K to 104K.
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2012, 08:26:42 pm »


Charleston County went from 61.9% White and 34.5% Black in the 2000 Census to 64.2% White and 29.8% Black in the 2010 Census.  The Black population of Charleston County actually went down from 107K to 104K.

True across the state, which went from 30% black to 27% black over the same period. Demographic changes will likely make SC more Republican over time.

So, is it that whites are moving in, blacks are moving out, or a combination of both?

It's a case of non-native whites moving in while both native whites and blacks are moving out to the suburbs, but not the same suburbs.  The high-priced developments right along the coast are not surprisingly attracting more affluent people to them.  Whereas the more reasonably priced inland suburbs of Dorchester and Berkeley Counties are getting the middle classes.  The stratification that is going on in the developments is on socioeconomic lines, not racial, but obviously it does show up in the racial profiles.

It's just the popularity of beachfront property that is driving this, tho it plays a part.  While it may have changed since then, I know that decade ago the Charleston County public schools had such an awful reputation that teachers preferred to work elsewhere.  So basically if you're rich enough to move to where better schools are but not rich enough to send your kids to a private academy, you'll head across the county line to live.
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2012, 11:50:44 pm »

True across the state, which went from 30% black to 27% black over the same period. Demographic changes will likely make SC more Republican over time.

That's really surprising SC must be one of the only states with a shrinking black population share (other than maybe some caused by hispanic growth). Why is that happening statewide there?

Simple population diffusion.  We have an above average Black population, so just the ordinary moves of ordinary people would be expected to cause the percentage to shrink. It's accelerated by us having a net in-migration.
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