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  Talk Elections
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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Why did Upstate NY swing D?
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Author Topic: Why did Upstate NY swing D?  (Read 3628 times)
Devils30
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« on: December 13, 2012, 12:57:37 am »

This is an interesting question, mostly rural and white but not religious. Sandy didnt even impact here so that factor has to be ruled out as well. Almost all of North Country actually swung toward Obama.
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« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2012, 01:02:23 am »

Upstate NY often swings pro-incumbent. Might be that they aren't likely to revolt over the economy because it's usually weak anyway.
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nclib
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« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2012, 10:28:09 am »

Also, areas that have historically elected moderate Republicans, are moving against today's GOP. Without Sandy, NYC/NJ would still have been more Democratic than on paper for a Mitt Romney candidacy.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2012, 12:27:06 am »

This is an interesting question, mostly rural and white but not religious.

That's your answer.
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shua
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« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2012, 02:29:13 pm »

This is an interesting question, mostly rural and white but not religious.

That's your answer.

That doesn't explain the swing there. Neither is much of the R swing areas of New England or the Pacific Northwest.
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Seattle
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« Reply #5 on: December 14, 2012, 04:35:09 pm »

This is an interesting question, mostly rural and white but not religious.

That's your answer.

That doesn't explain the swing there. Neither is much of the R swing areas of New England or the Pacific Northwest.

Why for the Pacific Northwest? Most counties swung only slightly to Romney and trended D.
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shua
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« Reply #6 on: December 14, 2012, 05:59:06 pm »

This is an interesting question, mostly rural and white but not religious.

That's your answer.

That doesn't explain the swing there. Neither is much of the R swing areas of New England or the Pacific Northwest.

Why for the Pacific Northwest? Most counties swung only slightly to Romney and trended D.

My point was that the Pacific Northwest and New England are the least religious regions but mostly did not swing D in the way that Upstate NY did.
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nclib
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« Reply #7 on: December 14, 2012, 06:17:00 pm »

Perhaps...

Also, areas that have historically elected moderate Republicans, are moving against today's GOP. Without Sandy, NYC/NJ would still have been more Democratic than on paper for a Mitt Romney candidacy.

New England and the Pacific Northwest had already given up on moderate Republicans.
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АverroŽs 🦉
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« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2012, 02:12:47 pm »

It's worth noting that Northern New York, Central NY, and the Capital Region are really the only areas we should be discussing. Western NY, the Southern Tier, and the Mid-Hudson swung toward Romney.
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RBH
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« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2012, 06:59:44 pm »

Fanatical fans of John McHugh
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johnbuterbaugh
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« Reply #10 on: December 22, 2012, 10:10:23 pm »

Perhaps...

Also, areas that have historically elected moderate Republicans, are moving against today's GOP. Without Sandy, NYC/NJ would still have been more Democratic than on paper for a Mitt Romney candidacy.

New England and the Pacific Northwest had already given up on moderate Republicans.

If John Kerry vacates his Senate seat in Massachusetts, moderate Republican Scott Brown is said to be a frontrunner for the spot.
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jfern
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« Reply #11 on: December 22, 2012, 10:18:23 pm »

The economy being crappy is nothing new there, so not much to blame Obama for.
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danny
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« Reply #12 on: December 23, 2012, 01:32:07 pm »

Perhaps...

Also, areas that have historically elected moderate Republicans, are moving against today's GOP. Without Sandy, NYC/NJ would still have been more Democratic than on paper for a Mitt Romney candidacy.

New England and the Pacific Northwest had already given up on moderate Republicans.

If John Kerry vacates his Senate seat in Massachusetts, moderate Republican Scott Brown is said to be a frontrunner for the spot.

You mean the guy who just lost a Massachusetts senate race?
We will see about that.
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Beezer
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« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2013, 09:31:07 am »

Can anybody explain the shift in Montgomery County? It voted for Gore 49.3-46.9 in 2000 but this time around voted for Romney 51.3-46.7. Kind of odd since so many nearby counties (Saratoga, Washington, Warren) have moved to the left, sometimes quite considerably (in Washington County's case for example by 14.4 points if you compare Bush's to Obama's lead).
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Benj
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« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2013, 09:44:28 am »

In 2012, it actually trended significantly towards Obama, so the Republican trend was clearly short-term. It did trend fairly Republican in 2004 and 2008, though. Amsterdam, the largest town in Montgomery County, is your traditional declining upstate industrial small town on the Erie Canal. It lost population at every Census from 1940 to 2000, though it grew slightly in 2010. Similar is true of Canajoharie, the other town of size in the county.

Saratoga, Washington and Warren Counties are very different and much more rural historically, especially Washington and Warren. None of them are on the Erie Canal. I think better comparisons are to towns and counties to the west also on the Canal, like Herkimer and Oneida Counties. They showed a similar pattern of moving Republican in 2004 and 2008 but Democratic in 2012, which seems to be what the post-industrial upstate towns all did.
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Cincinnatus
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« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2013, 04:21:28 pm »

It's worth noting that Northern New York, Central NY, and the Capital Region are really the only areas we should be discussing. Western NY, the Southern Tier, and the Mid-Hudson swung toward Romney.

Don't remind me..
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Antonio V
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« Reply #16 on: April 01, 2013, 05:28:59 pm »

It's worth noting that Northern New York, Central NY, and the Capital Region are really the only areas we should be discussing. Western NY, the Southern Tier, and the Mid-Hudson swung toward Romney.

Don't remind me..

Still below average though.

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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #17 on: April 06, 2013, 03:24:10 pm »

Because Romney ignored conservative base and all blue states, they did not turn out. Even the folks in Buffalo voted for Carl Paladino.
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Benj
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« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2013, 03:36:47 pm »

Because Romney ignored conservative base and all blue states, they did not turn out. Even the folks in Buffalo voted for Carl Paladino.

Total misunderstanding of the Carl Paladino vote.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #19 on: April 08, 2013, 06:59:20 am »

1. Northern NY is much like that of VT and Northern New England. Religion has collapsed in that part of the world and it is starting to vote accordingly like similar non-religions rurals in VT.

2. Romney had a blue collar problem all around and especially in those areas where religion and social issues are of little importance, therefore less motivation to vote based on other considerations.

3. Romney had an upscale suburb problem too resulting from his attempts to over compensate with this base. This could have hurt him in some places like Syracuse for instance and maybe Binghamton.This combined with maybe some effects of Sandy, reduced his potential on Long Island and Staten Island for instance.

Because Romney ignored conservative base and all blue states, they did not turn out. Even the folks in Buffalo voted for Carl Paladino.

The types of voters that Paladino was getting would likely never vote for any other Republican, other than him. And he lost far more than that in other parts of state, the minute you start getting west of Rochester. Consider yourself introduced to "the personal vote". New York has a long history of that such as in Monroe County in that election for Governor (2002 I believe or was it 1998?) and some of the Republicans in parts of Manhattan back in the 1960's that even back then were impossible for GOP in general to get.
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