LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Good news for Mary? Maybe a decent democrat could run here, in order to boost black turnout because a run off could happen if many republicans seek this office!

^ Hmm, good point.

If he resigns, it depends on how the special election is scheduled. The special that McAllister won was short by design (less than three months). If there's a similar election, a stronger incumbent could get in before November and discourage a Democrat from running.

So does that mean Neil Riser probably beats him in November? Is he even running again?

I haven't heard from Riser since the loss. Personally, mu uncle in the legislature has a good relationship with Riser. I can ask what he thinks.

[windjammer]

Mayo for instance? He's black, isn't he?  And I don't think Mcallister will resign. At least he will serve his term!

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

When I clicked on that link, I was expecting something real bad, like maybe a corruption scandal or something, not an affair.  Is that really going to have an impact?  I know it's Louisiana, but...

[Miles]

Mayo for instance? He's black, isn't he?  And I don't think Mcallister will resign. At least he will serve his term!

Possibly, but after the primary, Mayo and McAllister have been on very good terms.

[windjammer]

Mayo for instance? He's black, isn't he?  And I don't think Mcallister will resign. At least he will serve his term!

Possibly, but after the primary, Mayo and McAllister have been on very good terms.

Miles, please!!!! You know that politically, feelings don't matter!

[Miles]

This already helps Landrieu somewhat. Cassidy remained neutral in last fall's special and was hoping to capitalize on that if he could make McAllister a surrogate in the north. The Cassidy camp will want to keep its distance from him now.


We also got more fundraising #s in:

Landrieu raised $1.8 mil, bringing her to $7.5 mil CoH.

Tillis has his best quarter yet, raising $1.3 million.

Charlotte Mayor/NC-12: State Sen. Dan Clodfelter was appointed today, leaving the field for NC-12 intact.

[Donerail]

Well, Vance McAllister might not be sticking around long

Does it often happen in Louisiana? Blablabla I'm Christian, but I'm a womanizer, and I ask for forgiveness. The next Vitter!

Happens pretty frequently, actually.

Though I can't really see the Dems weaponizing this - not with Edwards also running.

[moderatevoter]

Hagan raises $2.8 million in Q1. Damn.

http://atr.rollcall.com/kay-hagan-raised-2-8-million-for-re-election-in-2014/

[IceSpear]

Does anyone else find it strange that Hagan seems to be doing even worse in the polls than Pryor/Landrieu despite being from a much bluer state and facing much more toxic opponents?

[moderatevoter]

It doesn't surprise me, since Hagan is a weaker opponent. Pryor/Landrieu have family legacy, and therefore have their own personal brand of sorts. Hagan is basically a Generic D, who is fairly unknown. That is precisely why I think AFP went after her in the first place. She was the easiest to define, and so they were able to drive her unfavorables up. If the GOP had a relatively strong opponent (McCrory, had he passed up on Governor for example), I think Hagan would be toast by now, whereas Pryor and Landrieu still have a fighting chance.

[windjammer]

Kay hagan is only trailing by one point...

[IceSpear]

It doesn't surprise me, since Hagan is a weaker opponent. Pryor/Landrieu have family legacy, and therefore have their own personal brand of sorts. Hagan is basically a Generic D, who is fairly unknown. That is precisely why I think AFP went after her in the first place. She was the easiest to define, and so they were able to drive her unfavorables up. If the GOP had a relatively strong opponent (McCrory, had he passed up on Governor for example), I think Hagan would be toast by now, whereas Pryor and Landrieu still have a fighting chance.

Yeah, that's a good point. At the moment, I wonder if the relative anonymity of the GOP field is actually HELPING them in the polls by positioning them as "generic R". It would explain why Hagan seems to consistently trail them. Although Hagan's approvals are pretty bad, she definitely fits the state better than some right wing Tea Party activist or a SoCon pastor.

[moderatevoter]

Right, but I feel like at the moment she's polling at the floor for Democrats in North Carolina. Pryor and Landrieu are obviously outperforming the floor for Democrats in Arkansas and Louisiana respectively, and their personal brand is clearly a factor there.

It doesn't surprise me, since Hagan is a weaker opponent. Pryor/Landrieu have family legacy, and therefore have their own personal brand of sorts. Hagan is basically a Generic D, who is fairly unknown. That is precisely why I think AFP went after her in the first place. She was the easiest to define, and so they were able to drive her unfavorables up. If the GOP had a relatively strong opponent (McCrory, had he passed up on Governor for example), I think Hagan would be toast by now, whereas Pryor and Landrieu still have a fighting chance.

Yeah, that's a good point. At the moment, I wonder if the relative anonymity of the GOP field is actually HELPING them in the polls by positioning them as "generic R". It would explain why Hagan seems to consistently trail them. Although Hagan's approvals are pretty bad, she definitely fits the state better than some right wing Tea Party activist or a SoCon pastor.

Oh yes. This is why the Brannon-Hagan matchup is misleading. Brannon is polling as Generic R at the moment, but the second people hear about some of the comments he's made, he's going to drop. This is why I think this race will move between Lean/Likely D with Brannon as the nominee. Hagan may not be liked, but politics is a game of simply beating your opponent, and people will likely opt for someone relatively bland than a crazy lunatic like Brannon. Brannon supporters point to the polls, which DO currently show him as "more electable" than Tillis, but in reality, that is just because he's fairly unknown. That is why I think the GOP needs Tillis to be the nominee, because frankly, his liabilities are fairly well known, so I don't think he'd have a significant drop as more people find out about him.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't think people even know the full range of what Tillis has done as Speaker. More people know of that then they do of Brannon's problems, but when the TV is wall to wall cut UI, tax cuts for the rich, cut education, rejected Medicaid expansion etc etc etc, his numbers can still drop more.

[moderatevoter]

Nah, that's also true, but I view Tillis as less likely to pull a Todd Akin. That's mainly what I was referring to.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Rick Berg is no more of a Senator then Todd Akin is.

[moderatevoter]

Not really surprising, but Tillis gets an endorsement from the Chamber of Commerce.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline-on-call/chamber-to-back-tillis-in-gop-primary-20140407

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Rankings for the most effective legislators were released. As you would expect, Tillis and Berger were first in their respective houses. Not surprising, but I could see Tillis using this in an ad or something. As Assembly Democrats have largely been sidelined these past few sessions, all of the 20 legislators named were Republicans.

Personally, as someone from Meckleunburg County, I guess its bad that my county is losing influence. Tillis is leaving as is Rep. Ruth Samuelson (#5 on the House list). On the Senate side though, we'll still have Bob Rucho as Chair of the Finance Committee. And of course, Pat McCrory and Dan Forest are Charlotteans.

NC-03: Taylor Griffin is out with his first ad, which is mostly biographical. I'd say the primary is still between Lean and Likely Jones.

NC-07: Answering Rouzer's ad from a few weeks ago, White is running an ad of his own. White is aiming for conservative and far-right voters with this ad, but remains a clear underdog.

NC-12: Another one of those articles where you should know almost everything if you follow this thread I'd probably give Mitchell more of a chance than Roll Call does, as they're casting it as an Adams vs. Graham race. Don't look for any of the candidates to run ads in the Charlotte or Triad markets, especially against the backdrop of the pricey Senate race. Rather, GOTV will be paramount.

LA-Sen: The Examiner highlights Maness. His arguments here are that 1) if Cassidy is a conservative, he shouldn't have to spend as much as he is defending his record and 2) if Republicans get Landrieu into a runoff they'll win, ergo they might as well go with the further-right candidate.

More LA-Sen: On a plane trip, Cassidy, a doctor, helped a passenger regain consciousness after passing out.  It reminds me of a similar incident last fall where Raul Ruiz, another Congressional physician, helped a passenger.  

LA-05: I thought it would be a while until I had this seat in an update. Anyway, the fallout from yesterday has prompted Roll Call to play the Great Mentioner. Mostly, anyone who ran in the special is fair game.

Personally, I really don't buy the comparisons to Vitter; yes, both situations are ostensibly similar but I think its a false equivalency. Someone at RRH pointed out that while Vitter's scandal was much more embarrassing, he had a full 3 years to recover. Also, he had sterling credentials with the conservatives, strong stature within the party and was well-entrenched in his suburban New Orleans base; McAllister lacks all these things.

More LA-05: 'Any coincidence that the video of McAllister was first leaked to The Ouachita Citizen, which was rabidly pro-Riser? Also considering the video was from December 2013, something may have been in the works here for a while.

[Miles]

LA-05: McAllister says he plans on seeking reelection but leaves this escape hatch:

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He's also fired the staffer he had the affair with.

NC-Sen: After a testy exchange last month, Harris is calling on Tillis to resign his Speakership. Harris cites the conflicts of interest that could come about from running for office while leading the Assembly.

Speaking of Harris, the Rockingham County paper got a rather lengthy interview with him.

Harris likes to cite Reagan's analogy of the three-legged stool. When it comes to governing, leaders should strive for 1) conservative domestic policies 2) strong defense and 3) traditional values; if one leg is broken, the stool can't stand. Harris has mentioned this in every speech/interview I've come across.

[Deus Naturae]

NC-07: Huckabee endorses White.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: There will actually be at least two debates heading into the primary. The first will be an hour-long event at Davidson College on the 22nd, followed by a shorter half hour forum the next day. Finally, UNC-TV will be hosting the final one on the 28th.

Despite some confusion, Harris will be included in all three. It sounds like they should all be four-person affairs with Harris, Tillis, Brannon and Grant.

LA-05: Speaking of affairs, there are a few more developments from this race. First, we heard from Heath Peacock, the guy who's wife McAllister was smooching with. He calls McAllister out on pandering:

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This is could be pretty damning, as McAllister laid the whole "I'm a Christian family values conservative" veneer on pretty darn thick in his ads.

The field of candidates is starting to take shape. As I suspected, Monroe mayor Jamie Mayo is out while Clyde Holloway wants to stay on the Public Service Commission.

The Democrat who sounds most interested is the Blue Doggish State Rep. Robert Johnson, who represents Avoyelles Parish. Johnson is popular in his district. Avoyelles Parish tilts D (by state standards) but Johnson really cleaned up there in the primary; he carried the parish with 63% despite low turnout. From Landrieu's perspective, having him turn out voters in that rural (but swingy) region would be helpful. If they can't draft a black Democrat from Monroe, that might be the next best thing.

LA-06: The LSU paper actually has a pretty good interview with Captain Bob Bell (R). Bell writes for tea party websites, but seems to personally identify more as a pragmatic conservative.

More LA-Sen: LSU also has a shorter piece on Craig McColluch. Basically, his priorities are domestic energy and social issues.  

[publicunofficial]

LA-GOP Chairman Roger Villere is asking McAllister to resign, but says McAllister is dodging his calls.

[RogueBeaver]

National and state Pubs are moving to force McAllister out.

[windjammer]

National and state Pubs are moving to force McAllister out.

If only they could have done the same thing with  Vitter... But unfortunately for Louisianans, Blanco was still the governor, so they would have lost a seat.

[Miles]

LA-05: Wow, Rodney Alexander isn't ruling out running for his old job:

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Personally, I'd rather have Alexander again over Riser. OTOH, if Landrieu is fishing for bipartisan endorsements, I always thought they should try Alexander; that would certainly be off the table if he ran again.