LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[RedSLC]

Also: [url=http://www.wral.com/news/page/12706857/?break_id=8728]WOW.

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I thought he abandoned the idea. Did he change his mind?

[Miles]

Miles: Was that the debate where Landrieu snapped that it would be Terrell's last campaign?

Wait, what?

It was one of the more bitter races of the 2002 cycle:

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I went to rewatch this one, and I think they had even more palpable disdain for each other in the debate that Tim Russert moderated.

Also: [url=http://www.wral.com/news/page/12706857/?break_id=8728]WOW.

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I thought he abandoned the idea. Did he change his mind?

'Sounds like he did.

[Miles]

White fires back with his own poll. He trails by 37-28; he also leads in New Hanover County, his stomping grounds.

Someone at RRH said that at this point in 2012, Rouzer was down to the better-known Pantano. I think given the districts conflicting geographic dynamics, I think White could still pull an upset.

[Miles]

$700K raised for Tillis. Likely the best haul of the R field, but thats still puts him at a 4:1 CoH disadvantage to Hagan.


The NC Free Enterprise Institute put together this analysis of Hagan's fundraising:

[RogueBeaver]

Outside groups are flooding the airwaves against Hagan, particularly AFP, but Tillis needs to fundraise on his own.

[Sol]

Just a little thing that occured to me after all this discussion of Aiken in CD2- Why doesn't Greg Brannon challenge Renee Ellmers? She'd probably be an easy primary- there's a lot to attack her on, and she isn't really well liked by the Tea Party or the establishment.

[Miles]

Conservative Intel is getting kinda cocky about NC; calling Hagan the Blanche Lincoln of 2014.

Most at RRH, and correctly so, are skeptical of the Rassy poll.

[Miles]

On Sunday, there was a Stand Your Ground rally at the capitol featuring Maness and Vitter.

Sorry, I can hang out with the pro-life crowd, but I wasn't going live to cover that event for ya'll!

Here's Maness' speech video.

[Miles]

I agree 100%.

Tillis isn't the RINO the tea party is making him into. He's presided over the passage of every ALEC-endorsed law in the Assembly. Brannon and Harris are just serving as foils for him:

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[Miles]

When asked about his job, LA's newest Congressman had an interesting answer:

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Its sounds like he still speaks my language though:

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At tonight's SOTU, McAllister's guest will be Willie Robertson.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-6: This fella pegs Dietzel as the frontrunner, generally impressed. Onward and upward.

[Miles]

Eh, not surprising. The Hayride has always been very anti-Claitor.

I agree that Dietzel's kickoff was impressive. Claitor, though, should be getting into gear soon.

[Miles]

FWIW, Hagan and Landrieu were next to eachother at the SOTU:




This was when Obama mentioned a high tech research center in Raleigh. Ironically, thats where he went on during his trip to NC when Hagan dodged him.

[Miles]

Just a reminder that my radio interview is tonight at 10 eastern time. I'll be a guest commentator on the Liberal Fix to discuss the importance of southern races this cycle.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Won't miss it, Miles.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Soccer coach to challenge Patrick McHenry

[Miles]

Butterfield is pretty low on that spectrum of Congressman needing primary challenges, but whatever. Rod Hewlin, a teacher from Rocky Mount, will also be a candidate in the CD1 primary.

[Miles]

Bill Flynn is getting out of the NC Senate Primary.

[Miles]

NYT looks at Obama's impact on both Mitch and Mary's races. Good read.

[RogueBeaver]

As we've been saying all along, national/local paradigm.

[Miles]

As the article alludes to, I think the Republicans had a hand in propping up Judge Bagneris, one of Landrieu's black opponents. If they can discount Mitch's standing with the black community, some of that could transfer to Mary. Chairman Villere is a crafty fellow.

[Miles]

Here's a post from RRH about Flynn's exit in NC:

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I agree with the first paragraph. Flynn was positioning himself as more of a Cruz to Brannon's Paul; they're still fundamentally in the same ideological camp though. Brannon should be able to pick up votes in the Triad with now, as there's less candidate redundancy.

I disagree with the second paragraph. One of the previous articles I posted made the case that Tillis shouldn't run his campaign like he already has the nomination. Skipping another (4th by my count) candidate forum in your own backyard is pretty weak, IMO.


In LA news, Landrieu supporters have launched a new super PAC. The Blue Pelican PAC looks more like a national operation, but unlike Vitter's, its not seeking to overturn any finance limits

[RogueBeaver]

Wonder what the chances are of an LA runoff deciding Senate control? IMO that depends on whether Hagan beats Tillis. If Tillis wins on a good enough environment - like Hagan herself - then Landrieu's 51 and done.

[Miles]

For LA-06 I finally found a decent article on Cassie Felder; its from, of all places, the LSU student paper.

[RogueBeaver]

She's competing for Dietzel's political constituency but given her BR base, may compete with Claitor geographically. No idea what the numbers are.