LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

I still think Dardenne wants to be Governor.

[Miles]

The first Republican to declare in NC is obstetrician Greg Brannon from Cary. He seems better than a Some Dude, but surely better candidates will get in. He launched his campaign in Wilmington.

Speaking of Wilmington, New Hanover County Commissioner Jonathan Barfield (D) is announcing that he will run in NC-07. Of course, no Democrat other than McIntyre can carry this seat.

[Miles]

Senator Landrieu has been in the papers recently criticizing Jindal on his refusal to go with the Obamacare Medicare expansion. She says that he's putting his Presidential ambitions ahead of actually governing effectively (gee whiz, I've never heard that before about Jindal).

I have to say though, Landrieu is brave to stick by her support for Obamacare. 

[Miles]

Also, citing the need for greater bipartisanship and cuts to agriculture, both Landrieu and Hagan voted against the sequestration bills from both parties on Friday.

The only other Democrat to break with the party was Pryor, who of course, is, electorally, in much the same category as Hagan and Landrieu.

[RogueBeaver]

Senator Landrieu has been in the papers recently criticizing Jindal on his refusal to go with the Obamacare Medicare expansion. She says that he's putting his Presidential ambitions ahead of actually governing effectively (gee whiz, I've never heard that before about Jindal).

I have to say though, Landrieu is brave to stick by her support for Obamacare. 

Brave is one way of looking at it.

[Mr.Phips]

Also, citing the need for greater bipartisanship and cuts to agriculture, both Landrieu and Hagan voted against the sequestration bills from both parties on Friday.

The only other Democrat to break with the party was Pryor, who of course, is, electorally, in much the same category as Hagan and Landrieu.

Pryor is in much better shape than either of those other two.  He's got fairly high approval rating and a golden family name. 

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: Boustany is staying in the House. Dardenne, Cassidy and Landry are all mulling runs against Landrieu.

http://atr.rollcall.com/louisiana-boustany-will-not-run-for-senate/

[Talleyrand]

Which realistic potential Republican do we have the most the fear from? Dardenne was only down three points in that last PPP poll, which was better than anyone else prformed, but I wanted to see what your thoughts on this were, Miles.

[Miles]

Which realistic potential Republican do we have the most the fear from? Dardenne was only down three points in that last PPP poll, which was better than anyone else prformed, but I wanted to see what your thoughts on this were, Miles.

I'd say Dardenne would be the worst as of now, but for any of them, it would be just a matter of raising their name rec before they'ed be competitive.

What makes Dardenne so menacing is that:

-He wouldn't need to spend money raising name rec.
- He's won 2 competitive statewide races within the past few years.
- He has a strong base in Baton Rouge; he would overperform there more than Cassidy would. With the population loss in New Orleans, Landrieu needs to pull at least 55%-ish in EBR parish to stay competitive. Thats only a few points better than Obama, but Dardenne has some loyal supporters.

[Miles]

Asheville mayor Terry Bellamy is forgoing reelction to run against McHenry in CD10.

Bellamy will win the Asheville chunk of the district easily, but there are lot of boxes to check elsewhere in the district. Barring a major anti-incumbent wave or scandal, McHenry is still a wide favorite.

[Miles]

As I suspected, Scalise isn't running.

[Mr.Phips]

Asheville mayor Terry Bellamy is forgoing reelction to run against McHenry in CD10.

Bellamy will win the Asheville chunk of the district easily, but there are lot of boxes to check elsewhere in the district. Barring a major anti-incumbent wave or scandal, McHenry is still a wide favorite.

Its simply disgusting what Republicans did to Asheville.  There is absolutely no non-political reason or precendence for what they did.  All of Buncombe county has always been in the district with the Smokey Mountains. 

[Miles]

Asheville mayor Terry Bellamy is forgoing reelction to run against McHenry in CD10.

Bellamy will win the Asheville chunk of the district easily, but there are lot of boxes to check elsewhere in the district. Barring a major anti-incumbent wave or scandal, McHenry is still a wide favorite.

Its simply disgusting what Republicans did to Asheville.  There is absolutely no non-political reason or precendence for what they did.  All of Buncombe county has always been in the district with the Smokey Mountains.  

Our self-appointed resident NC geography expert, BigSkyBob, who won't say if he's ever actually been to NC, seems to disagree.

[Mr.Phips]

Asheville mayor Terry Bellamy is forgoing reelction to run against McHenry in CD10.

Bellamy will win the Asheville chunk of the district easily, but there are lot of boxes to check elsewhere in the district. Barring a major anti-incumbent wave or scandal, McHenry is still a wide favorite.

Its simply disgusting what Republicans did to Asheville.  There is absolutely no non-political reason or precendence for what they did.  All of Buncombe county has always been in the district with the Smokey Mountains.  

Our self-appointed resident NC geography expert, BigSkyBob, who won't say if he's ever actually been to NC, seems to disagree.

Well, he's wrong.  What Republicans did here would be equivalent to Democrats taking Wright county in Minnesota and attaching it to the Hennepin/Minneapolis based MN-05. 

[Miles]

LOL

Walter Jones had some pretty harsh words for Dick Cheney at a Libertarian convention in Raleigh; suggesting that the former VP is likely going to Hell:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Asheville mayor Terry Bellamy is forgoing reelction to run against McHenry in CD10.

Bellamy will win the Asheville chunk of the district easily, but there are lot of boxes to check elsewhere in the district. Barring a major anti-incumbent wave or scandal, McHenry is still a wide favorite.

Its simply disgusting what Republicans did to Asheville.  There is absolutely no non-political reason or precendence for what they did.  All of Buncombe county has always been in the district with the Smokey Mountains.  

Our self-appointed resident NC geography expert, BigSkyBob, who won't say if he's ever actually been to NC, seems to disagree.

You are my appointed NC political expert and I say that losing Shuler was a travesty.

[Miles]

Asheville mayor Terry Bellamy is forgoing reelction to run against McHenry in CD10.

Bellamy will win the Asheville chunk of the district easily, but there are lot of boxes to check elsewhere in the district. Barring a major anti-incumbent wave or scandal, McHenry is still a wide favorite.

Its simply disgusting what Republicans did to Asheville.  There is absolutely no non-political reason or precendence for what they did.  All of Buncombe county has always been in the district with the Smokey Mountains.  

Our self-appointed resident NC geography expert, BigSkyBob, who won't say if he's ever actually been to NC, seems to disagree.

You are my appointed NC political expert and I say that losing Shuler was a travesty.

[krazen1211]

Asheville mayor Terry Bellamy is forgoing reelction to run against McHenry in CD10.

Bellamy will win the Asheville chunk of the district easily, but there are lot of boxes to check elsewhere in the district. Barring a major anti-incumbent wave or scandal, McHenry is still a wide favorite.

Its simply disgusting what Republicans did to Asheville.  There is absolutely no non-political reason or precendence for what they did.  All of Buncombe county has always been in the district with the Smokey Mountains. 

That statement is about as meaningful as 'Will County, Illinois, population ~680k, has never been split into 6 congressional districts'.

Yet there it is.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Asheville mayor Terry Bellamy is forgoing reelction to run against McHenry in CD10.

Bellamy will win the Asheville chunk of the district easily, but there are lot of boxes to check elsewhere in the district. Barring a major anti-incumbent wave or scandal, McHenry is still a wide favorite.

Its simply disgusting what Republicans did to Asheville.  There is absolutely no non-political reason or precendence for what they did.  All of Buncombe county has always been in the district with the Smokey Mountains. 

That statement is about as meaningful as 'Will County, Illinois, population ~680k, has never been split into 6 congressional districts'.

Yet there it is.

Yes, krazen, we know you think two wrongs make a right. You've made that abundantly clear over the years. Run along now.

[Mr.Phips]

Asheville mayor Terry Bellamy is forgoing reelction to run against McHenry in CD10.

Bellamy will win the Asheville chunk of the district easily, but there are lot of boxes to check elsewhere in the district. Barring a major anti-incumbent wave or scandal, McHenry is still a wide favorite.

Its simply disgusting what Republicans did to Asheville.  There is absolutely no non-political reason or precendence for what they did.  All of Buncombe county has always been in the district with the Smokey Mountains. 

That statement is about as meaningful as 'Will County, Illinois, population ~680k, has never been split into 6 congressional districts'.

Yet there it is.

I cant think of a time when Will WASNT split into several districts.  Even as far back as the 1980's, it was split between four. 

[Miles]

Wow, PPP included Dan Forest in their Republican kitchen sink primary and he's apparently leading.

[RogueBeaver]

Who do you think will ultimately take the NC-Sen plunge besides Tillis?

[Miles]

I'm actually not sure. If Tillis goes in, I can see the state partying trying to clear the field for him.

For the Congressional Republicans, I'd sort them all into three categories that would hinder them from running:

Too old -> Coble and Jones
Too partisan to win the state -> Foxx, McHenry, Ellmers
Serving 1st term in House -> Hudson, Meadows, Holding, Pittenger

I've heard of Senate Majority Leader Phil Berger running, but surely that wouldn't happen if Tillis is also in.

[RogueBeaver]

How strong of a candidate is he? Once he gets his name ID up that is. Granted Hagan's popularity is meh and she's a red-state Dem in a sixtch, but he doesn't give an impression of political horsepower. Also, what about Berry? She's been elected statewide multiple times so it wouldn't be her first rodeo.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't want anyone from the state legislature.


My list is still:
1. Fetzer - Fmr. Raleigh Mayor.
2. Pendergraff - Fmr. Mecklenburg Co. Sheriff.
3. Troxler - AG Sectretary 
4. Berry - Labor Commissioner.

No state legislature and no Congresspeople. All from Blue Counties with a good chance to do well in them based on past history or currently elected statewide.

And I think I forgot someone since I remember five being on there.