KY-PPP: Kentucky is Hillary Clinton country (against Rand Paul and Marco Rubio) (user search)
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  KY-PPP: Kentucky is Hillary Clinton country (against Rand Paul and Marco Rubio) (search mode)
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Author Topic: KY-PPP: Kentucky is Hillary Clinton country (against Rand Paul and Marco Rubio)  (Read 21354 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: December 10, 2012, 03:19:10 AM »

Nope. All 50 states SAFE HILLARY. 65% popular nationally, and over 400 EVs. Not a question, no point of even having an election.

Roll Eyes

If Hillary Clinton can win the states that President Obama won in 2012 and the six states that Bill Clinton won in 1992 and 1996 but Obama got clobbered in in 2012, then she wins 370 electoral votes if she doesn't flip anything else.

No Presidential nominee has ever won more than 62% of the popular vote since 1900. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2012, 05:14:19 AM »

I think they just leaked the candidates she led. Christie could be beating her. (I wonder why Rubio doesn't...)

Rubio is a political hack with huge vulnerabilities as a Presidential nominee. He won because liberal and moderate voters split a US Senate race 45-40-15 in the freak election of 2010.  He may not be as egregious as some other imagined GOP leaders. Our political system can expose serious weaknesses of any nominee.

The class of new Republican winners of 2010 in Senatorial and Gubernatorial elections so far looks like a weak lot. Senators  Ayotte? Toomey? Burr? Rubio? R. Johnson? Kirk? Coates? Rand Paul? Governors Corbett? Snyder? Kasich? Walker? Scott? Brewer? Just about any Democrat who survived the 2010 election can look strong now.   

I would advise people to not predict that anyone is going to win the Presidency in 2016 because "he can swing this key state".  If it didn't work for Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan, it is not going to work for someone who can be cast as an extremist, who has been excessively confrontational, can be linked to corruption or personal scandal, or who has questionable business practices. 

Barack Obama got elected from a Sure D state. Dubya got elected from a Sure R state. Bill Clinton got elected from what then seemed a Sure D state in anything other than an R blowout. The elder Bush was more ambiguous. Reagan got elected from a state that until then best described as Sure R except in D blowouts. Carter got elected once from a State then best described as Sure D except in R blowouts. Nixon? See also Reagan. LBJ got elected from what was then a very D state. Kennedy got elected from a very D state.

   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2012, 02:42:27 PM »

I'm very skeptical about KY and WV actually being won by Hillary or any Democrat in general. Rubio is barely known and has much more room for growth. I think what's more likely is Hillary vastly improves on Obama in these states but loses them by single digits. The bigger risk to the GOP is Hillary appeals to enough rural whites to put states like Georgia in play while taking Virginia out of reach. I'd put NC, GA, AZ well above KY, WV for Hillary. That said, can't rule out AR either only due to the possible Clinton home state effect.

Barack Obama has no idea of how to campaign in a rural area and is a horrible match for the culture of the Appalachians and Ozarks.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2013, 12:20:33 PM »

The key to winning Kentucky in 2016 would be to not only rack up good margins in Lexington/Louisville (Obama actually overperformed here in 2008 and 2012 for a Democrat), but to do well enough in coal country. Combining Gore/Kerry margins in rural Kentucky with Obama margins in urban Kentucky (he also did fairly well in the parts bordering Illinois and Indiana) probably makes it a Lean R state.

The question is better restated: would Hillary Clinton win more than enough votes that went for McCain or Romney in Coal Country to offset the Obama gain of black votes in Kentucky cities? Or are Coal Country votes lost forever to the Democrats?

A hint: Kentucky does not have a large percentage of blacks. 
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