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  KY-PPP: Kentucky is Hillary Clinton country (against Rand Paul and Marco Rubio)
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Author Topic: KY-PPP: Kentucky is Hillary Clinton country (against Rand Paul and Marco Rubio)  (Read 13678 times)
Lief 🐋
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« Reply #25 on: December 09, 2012, 08:58:17 pm »

Nope. All 50 states SAFE HILLARY. 65% popular nationally, and over 400 EVs. Not a question, no point of even having an election.

Roll Eyes

Dude, I'm just trying to prepare you so your world isn't rocked too hard when Clinton wins nearly every state in November 2016.
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change08
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« Reply #26 on: December 09, 2012, 09:05:11 pm »


If you're not being ironic, it's for the exact same reason that Obama's not done well in that region.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #27 on: December 09, 2012, 09:08:34 pm »

I guess we shouldn't forget that Obama wasn't the only candidate in the remarkable 2008 primaries to be the subject of mass identification (for want of a better way of putting it).
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Senator Scott🦋
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« Reply #28 on: December 09, 2012, 11:55:11 pm »

Nope. All 50 states SAFE HILLARY. 65% popular nationally, and over 400 EVs. Not a question, no point of even having an election.

Roll Eyes

All right, if that's the way you want to do it...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #29 on: December 10, 2012, 03:19:10 am »

Nope. All 50 states SAFE HILLARY. 65% popular nationally, and over 400 EVs. Not a question, no point of even having an election.

Roll Eyes

If Hillary Clinton can win the states that President Obama won in 2012 and the six states that Bill Clinton won in 1992 and 1996 but Obama got clobbered in in 2012, then she wins 370 electoral votes if she doesn't flip anything else.

No Presidential nominee has ever won more than 62% of the popular vote since 1900. 
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CLARENCE 2015!
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« Reply #30 on: December 10, 2012, 03:40:09 am »

There she goes!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #31 on: December 10, 2012, 05:14:19 am »

I think they just leaked the candidates she led. Christie could be beating her. (I wonder why Rubio doesn't...)

Rubio is a political hack with huge vulnerabilities as a Presidential nominee. He won because liberal and moderate voters split a US Senate race 45-40-15 in the freak election of 2010.  He may not be as egregious as some other imagined GOP leaders. Our political system can expose serious weaknesses of any nominee.

The class of new Republican winners of 2010 in Senatorial and Gubernatorial elections so far looks like a weak lot. Senators  Ayotte? Toomey? Burr? Rubio? R. Johnson? Kirk? Coates? Rand Paul? Governors Corbett? Snyder? Kasich? Walker? Scott? Brewer? Just about any Democrat who survived the 2010 election can look strong now.   

I would advise people to not predict that anyone is going to win the Presidency in 2016 because "he can swing this key state".  If it didn't work for Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan, it is not going to work for someone who can be cast as an extremist, who has been excessively confrontational, can be linked to corruption or personal scandal, or who has questionable business practices. 

Barack Obama got elected from a Sure D state. Dubya got elected from a Sure R state. Bill Clinton got elected from what then seemed a Sure D state in anything other than an R blowout. The elder Bush was more ambiguous. Reagan got elected from a state that until then best described as Sure R except in D blowouts. Carter got elected once from a State then best described as Sure D except in R blowouts. Nixon? See also Reagan. LBJ got elected from what was then a very D state. Kennedy got elected from a very D state.

   
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The scissors of false economy
Nathan
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« Reply #32 on: December 12, 2012, 02:03:18 am »

I guess we shouldn't forget that Obama wasn't the only candidate in the remarkable 2008 primaries to be the subject of mass identification (for want of a better way of putting it).

Very true. Both followings were (and to a large extent remain) incredibly devoted to their candidate.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #33 on: December 12, 2012, 01:12:25 pm »

Actual figures:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obamaís job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 38%
Disapprove...................................................... 59%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rand Paulís job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 43%
Disapprove...................................................... 39%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton?

Favorable........................................................ 48%
Unfavorable .................................................... 42%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Marco Rubio?

Favorable........................................................ 31%
Unfavorable .................................................... 22%

Q8 If the candidates for President in 2016 were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand Paul, who would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 47%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 42%

Q9 If the candidates for President in 2016 were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 48%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 40%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Kentucky_1212.pdf
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #34 on: December 12, 2012, 01:33:56 pm »

Looks like Kentucky would be a battleground in Clinton v Rubio race. Racist Democrats would flock to Clinton.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #35 on: December 12, 2012, 04:15:53 pm »

Maybe Clinton will get the Ds out of 1984 territory... and maybe, if she is lucky, will do as well as Gore.
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #36 on: December 12, 2012, 05:17:39 pm »

Funny Paul is getting lots of the youth vote.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #37 on: December 12, 2012, 05:52:25 pm »

So only 53% of voters in KY have an opinion of Rubio, one way or the other?  Looks like he still has a lot of room for growth on name ID.  Were he to actually run and win the GOP nomination, his name ID would be much closer to Clinton's than it is now, and he'd presumably be doing better in the general election matchup with her.

Still, leaving that aside for a moment, if we do accept that Clinton-Rubio would at least be close-ish in Kentucky, is it more because of Clinton's strength or Rubio's weakness in a state like that?  Would Rubio have a problem in states like WV and KY against a Generic D?
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memphis
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« Reply #38 on: December 12, 2012, 07:53:47 pm »

Maybe Clinton will get the Ds out of 1984 territory... and maybe, if she is lucky, will do as well as Gore.
Considering Obama '08 nearly beat Gore in KY, it's not all that high a bar. Kentucky is pretty darn inelastic. You don't sede the crazy swings present in some neighboring states.
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Devils30
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« Reply #39 on: December 13, 2012, 08:39:33 am »

I'm very skeptical about KY and WV actually being won by Hillary or any Democrat in general. Rubio is barely known and has much more room for growth. I think what's more likely is Hillary vastly improves on Obama in these states but loses them by single digits. The bigger risk to the GOP is Hillary appeals to enough rural whites to put states like Georgia in play while taking Virginia out of reach. I'd put NC, GA, AZ well above KY, WV for Hillary. That said, can't rule out AR either only due to the possible Clinton home state effect.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #40 on: December 13, 2012, 02:42:27 pm »

I'm very skeptical about KY and WV actually being won by Hillary or any Democrat in general. Rubio is barely known and has much more room for growth. I think what's more likely is Hillary vastly improves on Obama in these states but loses them by single digits. The bigger risk to the GOP is Hillary appeals to enough rural whites to put states like Georgia in play while taking Virginia out of reach. I'd put NC, GA, AZ well above KY, WV for Hillary. That said, can't rule out AR either only due to the possible Clinton home state effect.

Barack Obama has no idea of how to campaign in a rural area and is a horrible match for the culture of the Appalachians and Ozarks.
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BluegrassBlueVote
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« Reply #41 on: December 31, 2012, 06:31:24 pm »

Wouldn't surprise me if Rand Paul is voted out of office in '16. He's really not all that popular around here.

The first priority should be to Ditch Mitch, of course.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #42 on: January 01, 2013, 06:00:46 pm »

The key to winning Kentucky in 2016 would be to not only rack up good margins in Lexington/Louisville (Obama actually overperformed here in 2008 and 2012 for a Democrat), but to do well enough in coal country. Combining Gore/Kerry margins in rural Kentucky with Obama margins in urban Kentucky (he also did fairly well in the parts bordering Illinois and Indiana) probably makes it a Lean R state.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #43 on: January 05, 2013, 01:56:34 pm »

The key to winning Kentucky in 2016 would be to not only rack up good margins in Lexington/Louisville (Obama actually overperformed here in 2008 and 2012 for a Democrat), but to do well enough in coal country. Combining Gore/Kerry margins in rural Kentucky with Obama margins in urban Kentucky (he also did fairly well in the parts bordering Illinois and Indiana) probably makes it a Lean R state.

She wouldn't be able to rack up those urban numbers because she wouldn't be able to get that kind of turnout with blacks like Obama was able to.
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BluegrassBlueVote
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« Reply #44 on: January 05, 2013, 03:49:22 pm »

The key to winning Kentucky in 2016 would be to not only rack up good margins in Lexington/Louisville (Obama actually overperformed here in 2008 and 2012 for a Democrat), but to do well enough in coal country. Combining Gore/Kerry margins in rural Kentucky with Obama margins in urban Kentucky (he also did fairly well in the parts bordering Illinois and Indiana) probably makes it a Lean R state.

She wouldn't be able to rack up those urban numbers because she wouldn't be able to get that kind of turnout with blacks like Obama was able to.

She'll get a larger share of the white vote, though. That's guaranteed of the next Democratic nominee (since it probably won't be Patrick or Booker).

Bill was VERY popular here in Kentucky, but I don't think the same can be said for his wife. Like I said, this poll is probably more of a referendum on Rand Paul's laughable job as senator than anything to do with Hillary.
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thrillr1111
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« Reply #45 on: January 14, 2013, 08:08:39 am »

If she winning in KY, the she will likely win Arkansas.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #46 on: January 14, 2013, 12:20:33 pm »

The key to winning Kentucky in 2016 would be to not only rack up good margins in Lexington/Louisville (Obama actually overperformed here in 2008 and 2012 for a Democrat), but to do well enough in coal country. Combining Gore/Kerry margins in rural Kentucky with Obama margins in urban Kentucky (he also did fairly well in the parts bordering Illinois and Indiana) probably makes it a Lean R state.

The question is better restated: would Hillary Clinton win more than enough votes that went for McCain or Romney in Coal Country to offset the Obama gain of black votes in Kentucky cities? Or are Coal Country votes lost forever to the Democrats?

A hint: Kentucky does not have a large percentage of blacks. 
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seanNJ9
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« Reply #47 on: January 25, 2013, 04:20:13 am »

Count me in the pessimistic column when it comes to Hillary competing in states like WV and Kentucky.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #48 on: January 26, 2013, 04:26:26 am »

Kentucky men and youngs prefer Jim Beam while women and olds prefer Jack Daniels!

Purple heart PPP crosstabs
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jimmie
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« Reply #49 on: December 07, 2016, 06:10:05 pm »

It's still way too early to say someone would easily win.

Voice of reason!! Thank you Smiley

We really have no idea what will happen the next two or four years Smiley
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