OR-PPP: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) ahead by at least 4 points

[Tender Branson]

Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jeff Merkley's job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 29%

...

Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Allen Alley, who would you vote for?

Jeff Merkley .................................................... 53%
Allen Alley ....................................................... 36%

Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Bruce Hanna, who would you vote for?

Jeff Merkley .................................................... 52%
Bruce Hanna................................................... 34%

Q16 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Gordon Smith, who would you vote for?

Jeff Merkley .................................................... 47%
Gordon Smith.................................................. 43%

Q17 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Bruce Starr, who would you vote for?

Jeff Merkley .................................................... 52%
Bruce Starr...................................................... 32%

Q18 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Greg Walden, who would you vote for?

Jeff Merkley .................................................... 47%
Greg Walden................................................... 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_12712.pdf

[Maxwell]

Greg Walden is the only guy who I think would seriously run (Gordon Smith is done) that would have a non-zero chance of beating Merkley.

[Ogre Mage]

Some Republicans are claiming this race is a tossup -- a notion I find very far-fetched.

[Incipimus iterum]

Oregon Look's Competitive on paper, but it's a lot harder then it looks.

[Maxwell]

The Oregon republican bench is a disaster.

[tmthforu94]

Should Smith or Walden run, this seat is very plausible in a GOP-friendly year.

[CountryRoads]

Safe D Hold.


53% at worst for Merkeley, 44% at best for GOP.

[Gass3268]

Should Smith or Walden run, this seat is very plausible in a GOP-friendly year.

I doubt either will happen, Smith is currently on K Street and Walden is the head of the NRCC.

[hopper]

Isn't Walden too conservative to run statewide? The district he represents in Oregon is the conservative part of Oregon(Eastern Oregon) and a little part of Central Oregon which is probably Moderate to Conservative.

[Miles]

Should Smith or Walden run, this seat is very plausible in a GOP-friendly year.

I doubt either will happen, Smith is currently on K Street and Walden is the head of the NRCC.

Thank you; this is why Merkley will hold the seat.

[Sic Semper Fascistis]

My guess is that the GOP has a decent floor but a low ceiling in Oregon. I doubt Merkley is in much danger as long as he's fairly popular.

[Talleyrand]

I could see Smith defeating Merkley if he ran; after all, he was favored to hold on until the financial crisis and has csrved out a moderate, popular image in the state. Walden is just a paper tiger. DUring a campaign his hard conservative views would be exposed to the public, plus he's not really a strong campaigner. He needs a wave to pull him in. Merkley, while not unpopular, will always be at least potentially vulnerable because he lacks a strong feeling in a state that favors Democrats clearly but not enough to guarantee his victory every year just because he's generic D.

[freepcrusher]

I'd probably vote for Merkley if I lived in Oregon but he strikes me as sort of a loudmouth who thinks he's a five term senator.