PPP National Poll: Right now, it's Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

[Tender Branson]

PPP's newest national poll finds Marco Rubio as the early choice of Republicans for 2016. 18% would like him to be their nominee to 14% for Chris Christie, 12% for Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan, 11% for Mike Huckabee, 8% for Condoleezza Rice, 7% each for Sarah Palin and Rand Paul, and 4% for Rick Santorum.

On the Democratic side it continues to be no contest. Hillary Clinton leads the way at 61% to 12% for Joe Biden, 5% for Andrew Cuomo, 4% for Elizabeth Warren, 2% for Martin O'Malley, and 1% each for Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, and Mark Warner.

If neither Clinton nor Biden runs the big winner is 'undecided.' 45% of voters aren't sure who they would support with Cuomo leading at 21% to 16% for Warren, 8% for Patrick, 5% for O'Malley, 3% for Warner, and 2% for Schweitzer.

...

And for what it's worth here are the net favorabilities of all these folks among the entire electorate, regardless of party:

Potential Candidate
   

Net Favorability

Chris Christie
   

+22 (48/26)

Condoleezza Rice
   

+22 (51/29)

Hillary Clinton
   

+21 (57/36)

Marco Rubio
   

+8 (35/37)

Joe Biden
   

+2 (46/44)

Jeb Bush
   

Even (38/38)

Mike Huckabee
   

-1 (38/39)

Paul Ryan
   

-1 (41/42)

Elizabeth Warren
   

-2 (25/27)

Rand Paul
   

-6 (32/38)

Mark Warner
   

-7 (9/16)

Deval Patrick
   

-7 (10/17)

Rick Santorum
   

-10 (30/40)

Andrew Cuomo
   

-10 (23/33)

Brian Schweitzer
   

-12 (4/16)

Martin O’Malley
   

-12 (5/17)

Sarah Palin
   

-23 (33/56)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/12/looking-ahead-to-2016.html

[Keystone Phil]

Great Christie numbers! Rick's will surely rise to positive territory when people start paying attention again.

[Phony Moderate]

Some noteworthy internal numbers:

Christie is at 50/18 with "somewhat liberals", compared to 48/24 with "somewhat conservatives" and 50/34 with "very conservatives".

Hillary is at 98/1 (!) with "very liberals". Would have been unthinkable in 2008.

O'Malley, Schweitzer, Patrick and Warner all have a net unfavorable rating among all ideological groups, and their highest unfavorable numbers are with "very liberals" (23%, 31%, 25% and 34% respectively).

A higher percentage of "very liberals" (25%) viewed Warren unfavorably than moderates (22%).

Democrats view Christie favorably by 42/25.

Hispanics dislike Rubio - 24/42.

[Mr. Morden]

Dems

Clinton 61%
Biden 12%
Cuomo 5%
Warren 4%
O'Malley 2%
Patrick 1%
Schweitzer 1%
Warner 1%

If neither BIden nor Clinton run:

Cuomo 21%
Warren 16%
Patrick 8%
O'Malley 5%
Warner 3%
Schweitzer 2%

GOP

Rubio 18%
Christie 14%
Bush 12%
Ryan 12%
Huckabee 11%
Rice 8%
Palin 7%
Rand Paul 7%
Santorum 4%

[Lief 🗽]

Cuomo's unfavorables are already at 40%! Excellent news.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Hilary vs Rubio would be really interesting.

[Mr. Morden]

Cuomo's unfavorables are already at 40%! Excellent news.

No, 33%.  And that's with all voters.  Among Dems, his fav/unfav is 37%/21%.  Though that 21% is a higher unfavorable # than any of the other Dems have among Democratic voters.

[Mr. Morden]

Favorable/unfavorable margin among members of their own party:

Clinton 86/10% for +76%
Biden 80/14% for +66%
Warren 45/12% for +33%
Cuomo 37/21% for +16%
Patrick 17/15% for +2%
Warner 11/17% for -6%
O'Malley 7/17% for -10%
Schweitzer 5/19% for -14%

Ryan 74/15% for +59%
Huckabee 73/15% for +58%
Rice 73/18% for +55%
Rubio 62/11% for +51%
Bush 63/14% for +49%
Palin 66/24% for +42%
Santorum 56/17% for +39%
Rand Paul 53/22% for +31%
Christie 49/28% for +21%

So yeah, Christie has the best favorability margin of anyone among general election voters, but has the weakest favorability among Republicans…..yet still gets more support in the GOP primary than uber-popular Ryan.  Also, 73% of Republicans have an opinion of Rubio, which is actually lower than the rest of the GOP field.  So he's already leading the primary field, but still has room for growth, as he gains more recognition.

Also, in the primary matchup, Christie beats Rubio among moderates, but Rubio wins among all other demographic groups.  In the Democratic primary scenario without Biden or Clinton, Warren leads Cuomo among whites, so Cuomo's overall lead is entirely due to minorities.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why are Patrick, Warner, O'Malley and Schweitzer so unpopular among Democrats? They don't seem to have anything common among them to explain their poor numbers.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Why are Patrick, Warner, O'Malley and Schweitzer so unpopular among Democrats? They don't seem to have anything common among them to explain their poor numbers.

Low name rec.

[Mr. Morden]

Why are Patrick, Warner, O'Malley and Schweitzer so unpopular among Democrats? They don't seem to have anything common among them to explain their poor numbers.

Low name recognition pols always have poor favorability.  There are always a few people who say to themselves "I don't know who that is, so I'll say I haven an unfavorable opinion of them."  I don't really understand the reason, but I've seen it in countless polls over the years.

[Simfan34]

Run, Condoleezza!

[Mr. Morden]

Another interesting tidbit from this poll: Both Christie and Clinton have great favorability ratings, but Christie's come mainly from strong crossover appeal to Dems and Indies, while Clinton's come more from her amazing numbers among Dems (and the fact that Dems outnumber Republicans 44-32%):

Christie fav. / unfav. among….
Democrats 42 / 25% for +17%
Independents 46 / 29% for +17%
Republicans 52 / 25% for +27%

Clinton fav. / unfav. among….
Democrats 81 / 12% for +69%
Independents 52 / 42% for +10%
Republicans 26 / 66% for -40%

I wish they would have included a Christie-Clinton general election matchup question.  I assume Clinton would still lead because of name recognition, but it would have been interesting nonetheless.  It would also make for an interesting electoral map.

[Eraserhead]

Hillary is at 98/1 (!) with "very liberals". Would have been unthinkable in 2008.

Proud member of the 1%.

[King]

Christie's numbers no doubt come from his words about Obama's handling of Sandy.

[Ogre Mage]

This poll shows how much stronger Hillary Clinton's position within the party has become -- she is at an eye popping 61%!  Similar polls in 2005 showed her in the high 30s to low 40s.

I've read that in 1997, then VP Al Gore was polling in the low 50s.

[Maxwell]

These numbers already kind of show Christie can't win Iowa.

[Napoleon]

Hillary is at 98/1 (!) with "very liberals". Would have been unthinkable in 2008.

Proud member of the 1%.

You were polled?

[Gustaf]

These numbers already kind of show Christie can't win Iowa.

But indicate he'd be a favourite in New Hampshire, no?

Besides, Iowa has been irrelevant the last two elections on the GOP side. Looks interesting overall.

[Maxwell]

These numbers already kind of show Christie can't win Iowa.

But indicate he'd be a favourite in New Hampshire, no?

Besides, Iowa has been irrelevant the last two elections on the GOP side. Looks interesting overall.

I probably should've mentioned that, yes, he is easily favored in New Hampshire. Rand Paul and Rice might pull a good second-third or third-second, but Christie would win by Romney 2012 margins in that state should he not go in the Giuliani campaign direction.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Nice to see that Santorum is already dead in the water. I hope he runs again, though. Provides great comedy.