Texas swing

[The Mikado]

What's with the surprise?  Obama hit what was effectively the ceiling a Democrat can do in Texas in 2008 due to the unique circumstances, especially his and Clinton's lengthy primary campaign forcing them to build up campaign infrastructure in a state they otherwise never would have.  Obama's 2012 result in Texas is him returning to the mean: his ~42% is basically what a Democrat is supposed to get in Texas.  The Texas Democratic Party (an institution I'm actually very, very personally familiar with) is a corpse.  It has no electioneering mechanism to speak of.  Without Obama's own 2008 machine, there's nothing to see here.

[The Mikado]

Texas will eventually become more competitive, but it's a far more long-term prospect than most people assume.  Much of the blame for that is that the Texas Democrats are in no position to capitalize on changing demographics: the party has a serious dearth of serious statewide candidates, it has a very small number of state legislators to use as a bench for up and comers, and the party itself is effectively owned by old white trial lawyers who are only Democrats because the GOP is the party of tort reform.  In addition, the demographic shifts aren't as reflected in voting patterns as one might assume because a large number of Texas Hispanics are either A. not U.S. citizens, or B. under 18.  Furthermore, especially among older Hispanics and first generation immigrants from Mexico, Mexico's rather depressing political culture engenders a degree of skepticism about voting: for many decades, Mexico's one-party PRI regime made it so that voting was something that would, at best, serve as an opportunity to receive a bribe and at worst would only serve to bring you to the attention of the authorities.  Obviously, that's begun to change in the last decade or so, and younger Hispanics born in the US are much more friendly to the voting system, but especially in the Valley, low voter turnout is the rule, not the exception.

Basically, yes, I think Texas is going to get closer, but it's going to be a much, much slower process than many think. 

[The Mikado]

Even Travis is trending GOP?  As if my opinion of TX could get any lower...

Of course Travis is trending GOP: Obama got every vote he could possibly get there in 2008.  2012 is his falling back to where a Democrat should perform in Texas.