Rasmussen: Dems now lead by double-digits in the Generic Congressional Ballot

[Tender Branson]

A change in a sample from a ridiculous pro-GOP one to a D+6 one like in the exit poll can do wonders:

Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 47%, Republicans 36%

For comparison:

10-28-12

43% Democrats
46% Republicans

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/top_stories/generic_congressional_ballot

[Sic Semper Fascistis]

Rassy suddenly decided to leave joke territory?

[Tender Branson]

Rassy suddenly decided to leave joke territory?

Yes, after the election they adjusted their sample from about R+2 to D+6 (38D, 32R).

So, this explains why their polls all of a sudden seem reasonable.

[Bacon King]

Wowzers. With a universal swing, Dems would've won the House with this margin, no?

[Vosem]

Rassy suddenly decided to leave joke territory?

Not quite...this is an exit poll. If you recall, in the actual election the two parties basically tied, with the final count showing Democrats just barely ahead by less than 1% (which is a far cry from the D+11 margin Rassy is finding).

Wowzers. With a universal swing, Dems would've won the House with this margin, no?

D+6 is the universal swing from 2012 elections needed...this is close to double that.

[Blackacre]

...so why isn't Boehner a lame duck again? Why does this happen? A party has power that it really should not have. That really, really sucks.

[Lief 🗽]

Ironically, Rasmussen's last generic ballot poll was a tie, which is basically correct. Weird how his president poll was so wrong, even though the two polls should be sampling basically the same voters.

[hopper]

...so why isn't Boehner a lame duck again? Why does this happen? A party has power that it really should not have. That really, really sucks.

What are you saying? Its just sounds like your ranting!

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

By 2014 when hcr goes into effect he will be back to old self.

[Tender Branson]

Ironically, Rasmussen's last generic ballot poll was a tie, which is basically correct. Weird how his president poll was so wrong, even though the two polls should be sampling basically the same voters.

The actual House result is D+1 though and the Senate is D+10.

So alltogether about D+5 or D+6 combined for the Congressional Ballot.

Rasmussen was off by 8 or 9 points. Even if you only use the House result, he was off by 4 ...

[Lief 🗽]

Huh? He was off by 1%, well within the margin of error. His final generic house ballot poll was a tie, the final result was D+1.

[badgate]

Ironically, Rasmussen's last generic ballot poll was a tie, which is basically correct. Weird how his president poll was so wrong, even though the two polls should be sampling basically the same voters.

Maybe the formula for the congressional ballot had a much more realistic "likely voter" balance than the presidential polls did during Oct