MO-08 Special Election; Jo Ann Emerson resigning in February

[Meeker]

She's taking a lobbying job

This will be another non-competitive special like IL-02; Emerson won re-election with 72% of the vote this year and McCain won the district 60-38 in 2008. Nothing to see here beyond the Republican primary.

[Miles]

Ughh, she was my favorite MO Republican.

[minionofmidas]

What are the odds the replacement will be a far right nutter? Pretty high I guess.

[Meeker]

What are the odds the replacement will be a far right nutter? Pretty high I guess.

It's rural Missouri, so...

[Benj]

Jay Nixon won 52% of the vote here in 2008, so it's at least theoretically possible for the Democrats to win (that might be on the 2000 lines, but things haven't changed much). Don't think he won it this year, but it was relatively close.

That said, I have no idea who the Democrats would run to do that well again, and the Republicans would have to nominate a real nutter (not unlikely).

[Miles]

FWIW, I had to make a guess for Jefferson County, but this district went to about 66/32 Romney from 60/38 McCain.

[Meeker]

Interesting: there won't be any primary election; Missouri law says nominees will be selected by party committees. I guess that favors a more establishment candidate, unless the crazies have taken over the local party in the past four years.

Lt. Governor Pete Kinder and ex-Treasurer/Senate candidate Sarah Steelman are being mentioned as well as local legislators and party types.

[Benj]

Ah. If that's the case, then this will 100% definitely be a Republican hold. The candidate will be relatively non-controversial.

[Abolish ICE]

Interesting: there won't be any primary election; Missouri law says nominees will be selected by party committees. I guess that favors a more establishment candidate, unless the crazies have taken over the local party in the past four years.

Lt. Governor Pete Kinder and ex-Treasurer/Senate candidate Sarah Steelman are being mentioned as well as local legislators and party types.

It won't be Kinder.

[Svensson]

Please Jesus, let it be Steelman.

[SPC]

Maybe Todd Akin wants to return to Congress?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This would have been an interesting one during the last years of Bush. As it is...

[tmthforu94]

Really pulling for Steelman here. She should be Senator-elect right now.

[Where's the Epstein Client List?]

I'd suggest reading Ask Not What Good We Do - it's an account of the 112th Congress and Emerson's frustration with the Tea Party is very obvious throughout it. I'm not surprised she doesn't want to stay in Congress anymore.

[bloombergforpresident]

Kinder definitely has the name recognition to be the early frontrunner. Steelman is certainly another option for the Republicans. They probably would easily win but Kinder is the weaker candidate of the two.

For the Democrats, who need a white candidate that can appeal to rural voters...how about Robin Carnahan? High name recognition, grew up in Rolla, MO, and certainly has an advantage over most Democrats. She's one of the few Democrats that might be able too pull it out. But with this districts R tilt, it's still a likely hold for Republicans.

[Miles]

From DKE:

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[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I was just having a discussion with someone on AIM last week about Missouri and that in the most likely event Steelman would fade long before 2018 and second chance to run for the Senate, unless Emerson were to leave and Steelman could run for her seat.

[The Night Owlditor]

It will be the closet case Peter Kinder who gets the GOP nomination.

Anybody in Missouri will tell you that Sarah Steelman is a joke here. Even Caribou Barbie's endorsement of her couldn't even prop her up to second place against a lunatic Todd Akin or an unknown nutter named Brunner.

Establishment-backed candidates always win in Missouri. The Tea Party does not have much of an influence here. In Missouri, it's all about name recognition.

Yes, the district is majority Democratic at the local level and tilts Democratic at the state level (yes, Jay Nixon won it in 2008 and 2012, and Claire McCaskill won it in 2012 as well). Tommy Sowers could pose a threat here to any Republican in a neutral year, but I believe he has relocated.

R Hold.

[Niemeyerite]

Democrats have a good candidate in Tommy Sowers. Will he run? Even if he does, I doubt he gets more than 40% of the vote (that being very optimistic).

[memphis]

Seems strange to announce resignation before the new Congress even begins. Why not just decline to stand for re-election? Special elections aren't cheap.

[Badger]

Seems strange to announce resignation before the new Congress even begins. Why not just decline to stand for re-election? Special elections aren't cheap.

To make sure the party committee chooses the nominee and likely successor.

[Meeker]

She also may not have been offered the job until the past few months.

[Bacon King]

Is it usual for a Congressperson to announce their resignation so far in advance?