Charlie Cook has released his first race ratings

[Donerail]

They again have FL-13 as "Likely Republican". Please. Young is immortal and invincible. He's not leaving till he dies in office.

I wonder if Cook is accounting for a possibly redrawn map. If FL-13 were to take in the entirety of St. Petersburg, the district would be considerably more competitive.

They're not going to redraw the maps, and FL-13 will never include all of St. Pete so long as the Rs+minority Ds hold the Legislature (namely, a very very long time).

(which would be a more sensible district)

Are you expecting something, anything that happens in Florida politics to be sensible?

I had read there was the potential of a redraw due to current court challenges that have yet to be decided. If the court redrew the map itself, I don't see any way that FL-13 could survive as it is a blatant partisan gerrymander. It's totally ridiculous to have the Tampa district take a chunk of St. Petersburg. A fair map would have separate Tampa and St. Petersburg districts. Yeah, I will admit that I may be expecting too much out of Florida.

Yep; I don't see how I'm closer to someone up in Dunedin than someone on the South Side of the same city I live in or how that person is closer to someone in Tampa than me, but such is Florida politics. Last I checked the FL SC upheld the map and the DOJ approved it. The Congressional plan shall stand for now. However, a bunch of different groups (including the League of Women Voters) has filed suit against the State Senate map, which will be litigated in 2013 and could be interesting.

[politicallefty]

I thought it was only the federal challenge that's been resolved, not those that have to do with the Florida Constitution. A lot would depend on how strict the courts want to read the new redistricting amendment and whether or not it would choose to take up redistricting itself. According to Roll Call:

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[Donerail]

I thought it was only the federal challenge that's been resolved, not those that have to do with the Florida Constitution. A lot would depend on how strict the courts want to read the new redistricting amendment and whether or not it would choose to take up redistricting itself. According to Roll Call:

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It's actually difficult to predict what the Supreme Court will do. They're mostly left-leaning, and the RPOF targeted them for defeat this election. They won with large majorities and may have the desire to take on the GOP here, but they may also have been scared by the politicization.

[ajc0918]

They again have FL-13 as "Likely Republican". Please. Young is immortal and invincible. He's not leaving till he dies in office.

I wonder if Cook is accounting for a possibly redrawn map. If FL-13 were to take in the entirety of St. Petersburg, the district would be considerably more competitive.

They're not going to redraw the maps, and FL-13 will never include all of St. Pete so long as the Rs+minority Ds hold the Legislature (namely, a very very long time).

(which would be a more sensible district)

Are you expecting something, anything that happens in Florida politics to be sensible?

I had read there was the potential of a redraw due to current court challenges that have yet to be decided. If the court redrew the map itself, I don't see any way that FL-13 could survive as it is a blatant partisan gerrymander. It's totally ridiculous to have the Tampa district take a chunk of St. Petersburg. A fair map would have separate Tampa and St. Petersburg districts. Yeah, I will admit that I may be expecting too much out of Florida.

Yep; I don't see how I'm closer to someone up in Dunedin than someone on the South Side of the same city I live in or how that person is closer to someone in Tampa than me, but such is Florida politics. Last I checked the FL SC upheld the map and the DOJ approved it. The Congressional plan shall stand for now. However, a bunch of different groups (including the League of Women Voters) has filed suit against the State Senate map, which will be litigated in 2013 and could be interesting.

Yeah I agree, I don't know where exactly in Pinellas you live but I'm also in FL-13th. Just as a reminder  the portion of FL-14 that is in Pinellas voted 85% for the Kathy Castor, so if the maps were redrawn using this are it might even make Bill Young vulnerable.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I highly doubt the accuracy of that.  I have a feeling Levin might retire, which would make Michigan a toss-up.  And there is no way that Alaska and Minnesota are Lean Dem, even if Begich and Accidental Senator Stuart Smalley are running strong.  I think it's too early to make ratings, since a lot of people haven't announced their intentions yet.

[RogueBeaver]

MN is safe D, unless the GOP finds their own Graves type who can be a decoy in which case it's merely Likely D. Agreed on AK though.

[Vosem]

MN is safe D, unless the GOP finds their own Graves type who can be a decoy in which case it's merely Likely D. Agreed on AK though.

A Ron Johnson type could work in a very good year; as could, in a medium year, someone with extremely strong bipartisan credentials -- of course he'd never get past a nomination contest, but Dean Barkley strikes me as someone who could work.

[Donerail]

They again have FL-13 as "Likely Republican". Please. Young is immortal and invincible. He's not leaving till he dies in office.

I wonder if Cook is accounting for a possibly redrawn map. If FL-13 were to take in the entirety of St. Petersburg, the district would be considerably more competitive.

They're not going to redraw the maps, and FL-13 will never include all of St. Pete so long as the Rs+minority Ds hold the Legislature (namely, a very very long time).

(which would be a more sensible district)

Are you expecting something, anything that happens in Florida politics to be sensible?

I had read there was the potential of a redraw due to current court challenges that have yet to be decided. If the court redrew the map itself, I don't see any way that FL-13 could survive as it is a blatant partisan gerrymander. It's totally ridiculous to have the Tampa district take a chunk of St. Petersburg. A fair map would have separate Tampa and St. Petersburg districts. Yeah, I will admit that I may be expecting too much out of Florida.

Yep; I don't see how I'm closer to someone up in Dunedin than someone on the South Side of the same city I live in or how that person is closer to someone in Tampa than me, but such is Florida politics. Last I checked the FL SC upheld the map and the DOJ approved it. The Congressional plan shall stand for now. However, a bunch of different groups (including the League of Women Voters) has filed suit against the State Senate map, which will be litigated in 2013 and could be interesting.

Yeah I agree, I don't know where exactly in Pinellas you live but I'm also in FL-13th. Just as a reminder  the portion of FL-14 that is in Pinellas voted 85% for the Kathy Castor, so if the maps were redrawn using this are it might even make Bill Young vulnerable.

I can walk to Castor's district, and actually worked on her campaign a bit. It could make the district itself pretty safe D, but it couldn't get rid of Young. Bill Young is... Bill Young. Note the names on the buildings. Bill Young is a cornerstone of the local economy.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, Franken is very popular in Minnesota, not on Klobuchar's level, but pretty close. Also there are no viable candidates and the state Republican Party is a mess in the state

[NewYorkExpress]

HI-Sen should be solid Democrat
SC- Sen (special) should be Solid Republican
UT-04 should be in the Tossup columm
MN-06 should go in the Lean Republican columm, Bachmann is very vulnerable with a strong candidate...
NY-01 should be a Likely Democrat...
WV-02 should be Safe Republican
GA-12 should be Lean Republican
Other than than that Cook did an excellent job with ratings #2

[HappyWarrior]

PA-12 should be lean R at best

[Zioneer]

Yeah, UT-04 should be toss-up, especially since Utah Republicans got extremely close this last time. They just need a better campaigner. The problem is, since Utah is safe Republican basically everywhere but Salt Lake City, very few Utah politicians are seasoned campaigners in the way that would beat Matheson.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, UT-04 should be toss-up, especially since Utah Republicans got extremely close this last time. They just need a better campaigner. The problem is, since Utah is safe Republican basically everywhere but Salt Lake City, very few Utah politicians are seasoned campaigners in the way that would beat Matheson.

Republicans had the best possible candidate for that seat in 2012 plus Romney's favorite son effect and still couldnt win. 

[Zioneer]

Yeah, UT-04 should be toss-up, especially since Utah Republicans got extremely close this last time. They just need a better campaigner. The problem is, since Utah is safe Republican basically everywhere but Salt Lake City, very few Utah politicians are seasoned campaigners in the way that would beat Matheson.

Republicans had the best possible candidate for that seat in 2012 plus Romney's favorite son effect and still couldnt win. 

Mia Love was only an average campaigner though, and really relied on Romney's favorite son status and the Republican tilt of the state. If she had been even half as good a campaigner as Matheson was, she would've won easily.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, UT-04 should be toss-up, especially since Utah Republicans got extremely close this last time. They just need a better campaigner. The problem is, since Utah is safe Republican basically everywhere but Salt Lake City, very few Utah politicians are seasoned campaigners in the way that would beat Matheson.

Republicans had the best possible candidate for that seat in 2012 plus Romney's favorite son effect and still couldnt win. 

Mia Love was only an average campaigner though, and really relied on Romney's favorite son status and the Republican tilt of the state. If she had been even half as good a campaigner as Matheson was, she would've won easily.

She was certainly the best campaigner that Matheson ever faced. 

[JacobNC]

Midterm demographics will definitely be more favorable to Blue Dogs than 2012 Demographics.  Like someone else said, there will be fewer straight ticket voters.  Utah saw its biggest Republican turnout ever with Mormon Romney on the ballot; Romney did 11 points better in UT-04 than McCain, and yet Matheson still managed to survive.  I don't think he will have a tough fight next time around.

McIntyre has to be on his toes since Rouzer has announced he will spend about two years campaigning next time, and he probably won't have a bruising primary again.  But I still think he's the favorite.

And Barrow won in 2012 without a sweat, despite his district going heavily for Romney.  Without Romney on the ballot, Barrow should have an even easier time in 2014.

Rahall, of course, if he runs again, will have a much easier time in 2014.  His race was unexpectedly close this year because a huge number of Democrats in Southern WV stayed home rather than voted for Romney.  If the electorate is back to usual in '14, he will breeze through re-election.  I actually think WV-02 could become competitive too if Dems get a good candidate, it being an open seat.

[You Don’t Mess With The Zohran]

Don't NC-07 and GA-12 have a lot of black voters? That will hurt McIntyre's and Barrow's hopes.

[Mr.Phips]

Don't NC-07 and GA-12 have a lot of black voters? That will hurt McIntyre's and Barrow's hopes.

Not nearly as many as before. 

[JacobNC]

McIntyre's new district is only 17% Black.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

MN is safe D, unless the GOP finds their own Graves type who can be a decoy in which case it's merely Likely D. Agreed on AK though.

A Ron Johnson type could work in a very good year; as could, in a medium year, someone with extremely strong bipartisan credentials -- of course he'd never get past a nomination contest, but Dean Barkley strikes me as someone who could work.

Nothing says bipartisan quite like being the most right-wing returning Senator in the whole Senate. Wisconsin deserves scorn for eternity for voting for him over Feingold.