Charlie Cook has released his first race ratings

[Vosem]

Senate:

http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings

House:

http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings

Nothing too earth-shattering. Haven't really perused the House ratings yet, but some things in particular jump out on the Senate page -- Mary Landrieu is declared a 'potential retirement', while Dick Durbin isn't. However, most prominently Iowa is put into the same list as all the races in Romney states -- Cook has it as Republicans' best shot in Obama territory. If Harkin isn't retiring, how seriously are Republicans planning to challenge him? Kim Reynolds? Bill Northey?

[RogueBeaver]

Huh? Landrieu announced a long time ago and is already running statewide ads.

[Frodo]

Shouldn't Begich be in the toss-up category?  Also, John Barrow, Mike McIntyre, and Nick Rahall's districts should be Democratic toss-ups.  Republicans will run much better candidates next time, and 2014 (as a midterm year) is not going to see the Democratic-friendly demographics we saw this year.  

[Benj]

Shouldn't Begich be in the toss-up category?  Also, John Barrow, Mike McIntyre, and Nick Rahall's districts should be Democratic toss-ups.  Republicans will run much better candidates next time, and 2014 (as a midterm year) is not going to see the Democratic-friendly demographics we saw this year.  

Pretty much have to have a race leaning towards its incumbent until a strong candidate emerges on the other side (as has happened in WV and SD). Begich is pretty popular, and so far no one interesting has emerged for the Republicans.

Mostly agree with the ratings, though I would have Warner as Solid D and Pryor as Likely D. Franken I might also put as Likely D, but that's a little more controversial.

[Zioneer]

UT-04 is definitely not leaning Democrat; Matheson doesn't usually beat his opponents by enough to classify it as that. It's better classified as a toss-up.

[Donerail]

They again have FL-13 as "Likely Republican". Please. Young is immortal and invincible. He's not leaving till he dies in office.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

LA, SD, AK, MT, NC, WV and ME vulnerable.

[You Don’t Mess With The Zohran]

Shouldn't Begich be in the toss-up category?  Also, John Barrow, Mike McIntyre, and Nick Rahall's districts should be Democratic toss-ups.  Republicans will run much better candidates next time, and 2014 (as a midterm year) is not going to see the Democratic-friendly demographics we saw this year.  

Would demographics really hurt Rahall at least?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, that wouldn't be an issue for him. Other things might, perhaps.

[Meeker]

Rating House races this early is pretty silly. None of these people have opponents yet.

[Sbane]

They again have FL-13 as "Likely Republican". Please. Young is immortal and invincible. He's not leaving till he dies in office.

I would have said the same about Mary Bono Mack...and then you saw what happened.

[Donerail]

They again have FL-13 as "Likely Republican". Please. Young is immortal and invincible. He's not leaving till he dies in office.

I would have said the same about Mary Bono Mack...and then you saw what happened.

Mary Bono Mack was elected in 1998 and served on the Energy Committee. Bill Young was elected in 1970 and served on Appropriations, including chairing Defense and chairing the committee itself for six years, and has basically funded St. Petersburg. Bill Young has never gotten less than 56% of the vote, while Mack only got around 51% in 2010, a Republican year. Mary Bono was powerful. C.W. is invincible. He will either retire or die in office. Those are the only two options.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

FL-22 is now "likely Democrat." Frankel winning means this district will be in Democratic hands for quite a while, and only Adam Hasner (if he runs again, an option he likely is considering) can make it close to competitive.

[Mr.Phips]

FL-22 is now "likely Democrat." Frankel winning means this district will be in Democratic hands for quite a while, and only Adam Hasner (if he runs again, an option he likely is considering) can make it close to competitive.

People who lose by ten points usually dont come back for a rematch. 

[Talleyrand]

FL-22 is now "likely Democrat." Frankel winning means this district will be in Democratic hands for quite a while, and only Adam Hasner (if he runs again, an option he likely is considering) can make it close to competitive.

People who lose by ten points usually dont come back for a rematch.  

Carol Shea-Porter disagrees with you- and I'm sure others do as well, though I can't think of many off the top of my head right now.

Cook's ratings are pretty good, but AK and LA should be in tossup at least- Landrieu and Begich are not nearly in good enough shape to qualify as being favored for reelection.

[Mr.Phips]

FL-22 is now "likely Democrat." Frankel winning means this district will be in Democratic hands for quite a while, and only Adam Hasner (if he runs again, an option he likely is considering) can make it close to competitive.

People who lose by ten points usually dont come back for a rematch.  

Carol Shea-Porter disagrees with you- and I'm sure others do as well, though I can't think of many off the top of my head right now.

Cook's ratings are pretty good, but AK and LA should be in tossup at least- Landrieu and Begich are not nearly in good enough shape to qualify as being favored for reelection.

NH-01 is significantly more favorable than the new FL-22 is to Republicans.  Even Ron Klein probably would have held on there in 2010. 

[Nichlemn]

If Cook's ratings are supposed to be roughly synonymous with probabilities, then they don't really make sense and never have. Many races should in the "Likely" category with the expectation that they'll almost all move towards "Safe" as the clock runs out.

[minionofmidas]

Also, John Barrow, Mike McIntyre, and Nick Rahall's districts should be Democratic toss-ups.  Republicans will run much better candidates next time, and 2014 (as a midterm year) is not going to see the Democratic-friendly demographics we saw this year.  

While these districts (add Matheson) are hilariously unlikely to become safe for their incumbents ever again, midterm demographics will be more favorable to them, not less. Fewer straight ticket Republican voters drawn only be the presidential race trumps all other relevant factors combined.

[politicallefty]

They again have FL-13 as "Likely Republican". Please. Young is immortal and invincible. He's not leaving till he dies in office.

I wonder if Cook is accounting for a possibly redrawn map. If FL-13 were to take in the entirety of St. Petersburg (which would be a more sensible district), the district would be considerably more competitive.

[CountryRoads]

Rahall is fine imo. He's an established figure in Southern WV. WV-02 will be slightly more interesting though.

[The Mikado]

How is Begich Lean D?  If any race starts off as a probable GOP pickup, it's that one.  Landrieu's time might well be up even if she doesn't retire, also.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, I don't get that either.

[Donerail]

They again have FL-13 as "Likely Republican". Please. Young is immortal and invincible. He's not leaving till he dies in office.

I wonder if Cook is accounting for a possibly redrawn map. If FL-13 were to take in the entirety of St. Petersburg, the district would be considerably more competitive.

They're not going to redraw the maps, and FL-13 will never include all of St. Pete so long as the Rs+minority Ds hold the Legislature (namely, a very very long time).

(which would be a more sensible district)

Are you expecting something, anything that happens in Florida politics to be sensible?

[minionofmidas]

While the map they passed includes some details that don't belong into an actual fair map as demanded by the law - this being perhaps the most egregious - it could have been so much worse. The Senate R leadership wanted a worse map, for one thing.

[politicallefty]

They again have FL-13 as "Likely Republican". Please. Young is immortal and invincible. He's not leaving till he dies in office.

I wonder if Cook is accounting for a possibly redrawn map. If FL-13 were to take in the entirety of St. Petersburg, the district would be considerably more competitive.

They're not going to redraw the maps, and FL-13 will never include all of St. Pete so long as the Rs+minority Ds hold the Legislature (namely, a very very long time).

(which would be a more sensible district)

Are you expecting something, anything that happens in Florida politics to be sensible?

I had read there was the potential of a redraw due to current court challenges that have yet to be decided. If the court redrew the map itself, I don't see any way that FL-13 could survive as it is a blatant partisan gerrymander. It's totally ridiculous to have the Tampa district take a chunk of St. Petersburg. A fair map would have separate Tampa and St. Petersburg districts. Yeah, I will admit that I may be expecting too much out of Florida.