Redistricting not the cause of the GOP's continued House majority
Torie:
So says this article (Pubs get seven seats net is all).
Yes, the analysis is thin, just balancing off gerrymanders, but an interesting exercise would be to estimate how the Pubs would do if the Fruited Plain had its CD"s drawn by Muon2's computer program, with road connection segmenting count parameters, jurisdictional line hewing, and so forth. How much of a tailwind do the Pubs get from simple geography (the Dems tend to be packed), and the VRA (which helps Pubs with black areas, but may hurt them with Hispanic areas).
The issue has importance, because it may be as a structural matter, that we will have divided government for a long time, with no party able to do much, and test their approaches, and assume responsibility ala a European system. So we may have kick the can politics for a long time, with only meltdowns moving the ball much in a crisis mode.
Wish us luck. We may well need it.
freepcrusher:
Quote from: Torie on December 02, 2012, 07:21:52 PM
So says this article (Pubs get seven seats net is all).
Yes, the analysis is thin, just balancing off gerrymanders, but an interesting exercise would be to estimate how the Pubs would do if the Fruited Plain had its CD"s drawn by Muon2's computer program, with road connection segmenting count parameters, jurisdictional line hewing, and so forth. How much of a tailwind do the Pubs get from simple geography (the Dems tend to be packed), and the VRA (which helps Pubs with black areas, but may hurt them with Hispanic areas).
The issue has importance, because it may be as a structural matter, that we will have divided government for a long time, with no party able to do much, and test their approaches, and assume responsibility ala a European system. So we may have kick the can politics for a long time, with only meltdowns moving the ball much in a crisis mode.
Wish us luck. We may well need it.
time for proportional representation?
SPC:
Quote from: freepcrusher on December 02, 2012, 09:08:14 PM
Quote from: Torie on December 02, 2012, 07:21:52 PM
So says this article (Pubs get seven seats net is all).
Yes, the analysis is thin, just balancing off gerrymanders, but an interesting exercise would be to estimate how the Pubs would do if the Fruited Plain had its CD"s drawn by Muon2's computer program, with road connection segmenting count parameters, jurisdictional line hewing, and so forth. How much of a tailwind do the Pubs get from simple geography (the Dems tend to be packed), and the VRA (which helps Pubs with black areas, but may hurt them with Hispanic areas).
The issue has importance, because it may be as a structural matter, that we will have divided government for a long time, with no party able to do much, and test their approaches, and assume responsibility ala a European system. So we may have kick the can politics for a long time, with only meltdowns moving the ball much in a crisis mode.
Wish us luck. We may well need it.
time for proportional representation?
Or smaller congressional districts.
krazen1211:
The old districts were of course generously malapportioned to the benefit of the Democratic party in many areas. See Wayne County.
Bacon King:
Quote from: SPC on December 03, 2012, 02:08:14 AM
Quote from: freepcrusher on December 02, 2012, 09:08:14 PM
Quote from: Torie on December 02, 2012, 07:21:52 PM
So says this article (Pubs get seven seats net is all).
Yes, the analysis is thin, just balancing off gerrymanders, but an interesting exercise would be to estimate how the Pubs would do if the Fruited Plain had its CD"s drawn by Muon2's computer program, with road connection segmenting count parameters, jurisdictional line hewing, and so forth. How much of a tailwind do the Pubs get from simple geography (the Dems tend to be packed), and the VRA (which helps Pubs with black areas, but may hurt them with Hispanic areas).
The issue has importance, because it may be as a structural matter, that we will have divided government for a long time, with no party able to do much, and test their approaches, and assume responsibility ala a European system. So we may have kick the can politics for a long time, with only meltdowns moving the ball much in a crisis mode.
Wish us luck. We may well need it.
time for proportional representation?
Or smaller congressional districts.
Hear, hear!
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