Counties with median household income of $70k+? (user search)
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  Counties with median household income of $70k+? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Counties with median household income of $70k+?  (Read 1829 times)
Benj
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« on: December 01, 2012, 06:15:08 PM »
« edited: December 01, 2012, 06:19:22 PM by Benj »

At a glance, the only Obama -> Romney counties on that list are Summit, UT; Kendall and McHenry, IL; and Chester, PA. Three of those are explained by factors specific to the candidates (either in 2008 or in 2012). A few of the other counties actually swung towards Obama,* and nearly all trended towards him.

*Howard, MD; Rockland, NY; Prince William, VA; Santa Clara, CA; Bergen, NJ
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Benj
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Posts: 979


« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2012, 06:28:30 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2012, 06:30:03 PM by Benj »

At a glance, the only Obama -> Romney counties on that list are Summit, UT; Kendall and McHenry, IL; and Chester, PA. Three of those are explained by factors specific to the candidates (either in 2008 or in 2012). A few of the other counties actually swung towards Obama,* and nearly all trended towards him.

*Howard, MD; Rockland, NY; Prince William, VA; Santa Clara, CA; Bergen, NJ

True. Of course, Prince William, VA and Santa Clara, CA (my home county Smiley ) are increasingly less white, in addition to still having quite a lot of lower and lower-middle income people, despite their high median incomes. Fairfield, CT is the same way; the rich white enclaves of New Canaan, Darien, etc. voted solidly for Romney, IIRC.  

Whites and minorities in Santa Clara vote pretty much the same, though. Most of Obama's improvement was probably due to doing better with Asians rather than demographics. Prince William (and probably also Howard) are explained by minority growth. In Bergen, I think the explanation is again strength with Asians, though the Asian population is not nearly as high in Bergen as it is in Santa Clara, combined of course with the Sandy effect (though Bergen County was not hit particularly hard by Sandy).

Rockland, NY is demographically odd, with the Democratic base being artsy liberals in Nyack and blacks in Spring Valley while the Republican base is super-rich people in the Pearl River area and ultra-Orthodox in Monsey. If Orthodox turnout was down, which it might have been, that could explain Obama's improvement. Although, given the parallel shift with Bergen, NJ just across the border, the change may have been with super-rich voters actually shifting from McCain to Obama, weird though that might sound. (Perhaps impressed with his Sandy response? I don't have a better answer. Precinct results will help tell the story.)
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Benj
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Posts: 979


« Reply #2 on: December 01, 2012, 06:36:54 PM »

At a glance, the only Obama -> Romney counties on that list are Summit, UT; Kendall and McHenry, IL; and Chester, PA. Three of those are explained by factors specific to the candidates (either in 2008 or in 2012). A few of the other counties actually swung towards Obama,* and nearly all trended towards him.

*Howard, MD; Rockland, NY; Prince William, VA; Santa Clara, CA; Bergen, NJ

True. Of course, Prince William, VA and Santa Clara, CA (my home county Smiley ) are increasingly less white, in addition to still having quite a lot of lower and lower-middle income people, despite their high median incomes. Fairfield, CT is the same way; the rich white enclaves of New Canaan, Darien, etc. voted solidly for Romney, IIRC.  

Whites and minorities in Santa Clara vote pretty much the same, though. Most of Obama's improvement was probably due to doing better with Asians rather than demographics. Prince William (and probably also Howard) are explained by minority growth. In Bergen, I think the explanation is again strength with Asians, though the Asian population is not nearly as high in Bergen as it is in Santa Clara, combined of course with the Sandy effect (though Bergen County was not hit particularly hard by Sandy).

Rockland, NY is demographically odd, with the Democratic base being artsy liberals in Nyack and blacks in Spring Valley while the Republican base is super-rich people in the Pearl River area and ultra-Orthodox in Monsey. If Orthodox turnout was down, which it might have been, that could explain Obama's improvement. Although, given the parallel shift with Bergen, NJ just across the border, the change may have been with super-rich voters actually shifting from McCain to Obama, weird though that might sound. (Perhaps impressed with his Sandy response? I don't have a better answer. Precinct results will help tell the story.)


Well yeah, but whites in the Bay Area in general are liberal. The only remotely conservative areas left are outer exurban areas like the San Ramon Valley, and even that area is basically 50/50 to slightly Dem-leaning now. Most of the conservative Bay Area whites have either moved out or died off. The ones who remain tend to be liberal, for many reasons.

Exactly. My point was that replacing 70%-Obama white liberals with 70%-Obama Asians and Hispanics shouldn't cause in a shift in results. Thus, demographic changes don't explain the swing to Obama in Santa Clara.
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Benj
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Posts: 979


« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2012, 06:41:26 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2012, 06:43:34 PM by Benj »

What explains that roughly half of the counties with a median household income of $70k+ voted for Obama and half of them voted for McCain? Is it an urban-rural dichotomy?

Regional patterns. All but two of the rich Obama-2012 counties are in the Northeast/Megalopolis or California. (The exceptions are DuPage, IL and Washington, MN, both of which were very marginal and less than 50% for Obama.) The rich Romney counties are mostly in the Midwest and South, though with some exceptions (Hunterdon, NJ comes to mind).
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