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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  America is trending Republican (or so this idiot thinks)
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Author Topic: America is trending Republican (or so this idiot thinks)  (Read 3401 times)
Devils30
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« on: November 30, 2012, 04:20:30 pm »

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/11/28/forget-2012-long-term-demographic-trends-favorable-to-republicans.html

I've read several of his articles and Nate Silver could probably tear him to shreads but he's forgetting that those in their early 20s in 2008 (like me) will still likely vote Democratic even at later ages. The idea that young Obama voters are poised to start going to church and bible thumping is backed up by zero facts.
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King
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« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2012, 05:00:44 pm »
« Edited: November 30, 2012, 05:03:13 pm by King »

"America is growing older"

Really?

I mean really?

I can't even read the rest.  I'm already tapped out on bullsh**t.

Medved makes the bad assumption that olds vote Republican because they are old.  Olds in the 1960s were likely New Dealists.  Nixon won the youth in the 70s.  Olds will vote for who they remember being good to them as youths.  If the Obama administration is successful in the next four years, the youth of today will be life-long Democrats and it will be the Republicans turn try and flip the youth.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2012, 05:33:17 pm »
« Edited: December 04, 2012, 10:52:07 pm by Mehmentum »

Today's old people vote Republican.  It wasn't always this way.  The Greatest Generation, which swept FDR into office, remained very Democratic into their old age.  
Those who are alive today still are.

People tend to keep their political leanings from their youth.  Yes I do expect that Millenials will drift to the middle somewhat in their age, but barring a party flip or something of that nature, I think the Democrats will be able to count on them for the rest of their lives.  It will be interesting to see if millenials start voting more as they get older, or if the older generations are just more active.
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Cory
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« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2012, 08:25:51 pm »

The thing that pisses me off the most is that that smug douchebag implies that going "back to church" is a natural sign of maturity.
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unempprof
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« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2012, 08:33:27 pm »

Michael Medved?  lol

That is all.
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Badger
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« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2012, 12:29:24 am »

The thing that pisses me off the most is that that smug douchebag implies that going "back to church" is a natural sign of maturity.
Well, it does happen to a degree as one gets older. Newer parents who want to bring their toddlers up with a religious foundation and that. My wife and I did just that.

That said, medved is difficult to take seriously in my experience, even as a film critic.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: December 01, 2012, 05:24:53 am »

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/11/28/forget-2012-long-term-demographic-trends-favorable-to-republicans.html

I've read several of his articles and Nate Silver could probably tear him to shreads but he's forgetting that those in their early 20s in 2008 (like me) will still likely vote Democratic even at later ages. The idea that young Obama voters are poised to start going to church and bible thumping is backed up by zero facts.

Michael Medved has got rocks.

He ignores that the voters born in the 1980s and early 1990s are already much more liberal than older generations on economics and social issues. They are fleeing the Religious Right, one of the most reliable constituencies for the GOP since the early 1980s. They are heavily in debt for student loans and are underearning for their abilities -- both tendencies tending to push people to vote for the more left-wing politicians. Their idea of a Republican President is the awful George W. Bush. Barack Obama is by every non-ideological criterion a far-better President.

As voters age they increasingly identify with institutions, but what institutions will they trust? Giant corporations that underpay them and offer no security? Predatory lenders? The Religious Right? It is more likely that they will identify with the political causes that they know in youth. Significantly some of  the young volunteers for Obama are likely to grow into political careers -- and the vast majority of them will be elected as Democrats. The McCain and Romney campaigns did little to attract youth. When people's buddies start running for elective office, guess how people are going to vote.

Republicans need to ask themselves what they have to offer younger voters. Enrichment and pampering of elites is one of the most indirect and inefficient means of creating widespread prosperity. Educated rationalists have little use for the superstitious pablum that the Republicans offer to the Religious Right.   

 
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Beezer
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« Reply #7 on: December 01, 2012, 08:36:06 am »
« Edited: December 01, 2012, 08:39:12 am by Beezer »

Yes, as we get older, we tend to get more conservative. However the problem for the GOP is that the Democratic lead among younger voters is so big that even a huge conversion to conservatism isn't going to alleviate the GOP's suffering. Pew Research has a good report on the "Generation Gap and the 2012" election which shows that as little as 12 years ago, younger voters (18-29) were actually more conservative than voters 65+. That has been turned completely on its head in recent years.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #8 on: December 01, 2012, 12:39:18 pm »

Yes, as we get older, we tend to get more conservative. However the problem for the GOP is that the Democratic lead among younger voters is so big that even a huge conversion to conservatism isn't going to alleviate the GOP's suffering. Pew Research has a good report on the "Generation Gap and the 2012" election which shows that as little as 12 years ago, younger voters (18-29) were actually more conservative than voters 65+. That has been turned completely on its head in recent years.

That's a combination of the left leaning New Dealers dying off and young people swinging towards Obama. The GOP can accept losing with younger demographics, but losing them so handily is unacceptable.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: December 03, 2012, 06:30:15 pm »

Yes, as we get older, we tend to get more conservative. However the problem for the GOP is that the Democratic lead among younger voters is so big that even a huge conversion to conservatism isn't going to alleviate the GOP's suffering. Pew Research has a good report on the "Generation Gap and the 2012" election which shows that as little as 12 years ago, younger voters (18-29) were actually more conservative than voters 65+. That has been turned completely on its head in recent years.

Culturally conservative, that is. I am 56, and I just cannot relate to youth culture.  I have been unable to relate to youth culture since I was 25. Pop culture took a huge shift in content in the 1970s, and I found myself gravitating toward the most reactionary culture possible (classical music, Renaissance and Impressionist painting, 19th-century literature). One can be an extreme reactionary on culture yet a near-socialist on politics.

More significantly, people become more connected to institutions that offer them something. That can be their employers or the unions that allow them to get a fair shake in negotiations with bureaucratic entities. If they are government employees they may be less concerned about taxes than they are about the government meeting a payroll rather than cutting them adrift. Institutional loyalty could make them more loyal to the center-left on economic issues.   
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2012, 09:57:11 pm »

I'm a Republican and even I think this is ludicrous.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #11 on: December 05, 2012, 12:16:16 am »

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/11/28/forget-2012-long-term-demographic-trends-favorable-to-republicans.html

I've read several of his articles and Nate Silver could probably tear him to shreads but he's forgetting that those in their early 20s in 2008 (like me) will still likely vote Democratic even at later ages. The idea that young Obama voters are poised to start going to church and bible thumping is backed up by zero facts.

Michael Medved has got rocks.

He ignores that the voters born in the 1980s and early 1990s are already much more liberal than older generations on economics and social issues. They are fleeing the Religious Right, one of the most reliable constituencies for the GOP since the early 1980s. They are heavily in debt for student loans and are underearning for their abilities -- both tendencies tending to push people to vote for the more left-wing politicians. Their idea of a Republican President is the awful George W. Bush. Barack Obama is by every non-ideological criterion a far-better President.

 
Exactly
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNcygbTNJyE
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #12 on: December 05, 2012, 02:12:04 pm »

What else do you think of someone who defaults on a contract and blames you for it being faulty? i.e. giving you loans so you can work but not giving you a proper job and then comes to bleed your radish?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #13 on: December 05, 2012, 03:17:15 pm »

What else do you think of someone who defaults on a contract and blames you for it being faulty? i.e. giving you loans so you can work but not giving you a proper job and then comes to bleed your radish?

Nonsense. Student loans are contracts taken out to purchase an education. Whatever expectations the student has are irrelevant to the contract. If I play the ponies and my horse breaks a leg in the race, my bookie isn't an ass if he wants his money.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #14 on: December 05, 2012, 08:16:29 pm »

What else do you think of someone who defaults on a contract and blames you for it being faulty? i.e. giving you loans so you can work but not giving you a proper job and then comes to bleed your radish?

Nonsense. Student loans are contracts taken out to purchase an education. Whatever expectations the student has are irrelevant to the contract. If I play the ponies and my horse breaks a leg in the race, my bookie isn't an ass if he wants his money.
I encourage all people with student loans to not comply with repayments if possible(actually all loans).
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hopper
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« Reply #15 on: December 05, 2012, 08:23:52 pm »
« Edited: December 05, 2012, 08:26:56 pm by hopper »

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/11/28/forget-2012-long-term-demographic-trends-favorable-to-republicans.html

I've read several of his articles and Nate Silver could probably tear him to shreads but he's forgetting that those in their early 20s in 2008 (like me) will still likely vote Democratic even at later ages. The idea that young Obama voters are poised to start going to church and bible thumping is backed up by zero facts.

Michael Medved has got rocks.

He ignores that the voters born in the 1980s and early 1990s are already much more liberal than older generations on economics and social issues. They are fleeing the Religious Right, one of the most reliable constituencies for the GOP since the early 1980s. They are heavily in debt for student loans and are underearning for their abilities -- both tendencies tending to push people to vote for the more left-wing politicians. Their idea of a Republican President is the awful George W. Bush. Barack Obama is by every non-ideological criterion a far-better President.

As voters age they increasingly identify with institutions, but what institutions will they trust? Giant corporations that underpay them and offer no security? Predatory lenders? The Religious Right? It is more likely that they will identify with the political causes that they know in youth. Significantly some of  the young volunteers for Obama are likely to grow into political careers -- and the vast majority of them will be elected as Democrats. The McCain and Romney campaigns did little to attract youth. When people's buddies start running for elective office, guess how people are going to vote.

Republicans need to ask themselves what they have to offer younger voters. Enrichment and pampering of elites is one of the most indirect and inefficient means of creating widespread prosperity. Educated rationalists have little use for the superstitious pablum that the Republicans offer to the Religious Right.  

  
Thats the problem Generation Yers think of George W. Bush as an example of  Republican Governance and the Republican name is tarred because of that. Obama is non-idealogical? Makes me smirk that statement.

Giant Corporations that underpay? No boss wants to give a raise on the fly in my opinion. he Predatory Lending-You should know what you are getting into. Your fault nobody else's.

I do agree though on your last point that the Religious Right can't be the GOP's only base anymore because  its to small of a base now. Its like a failed business model.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: December 06, 2012, 01:28:15 pm »
« Edited: December 18, 2012, 12:08:10 pm by pbrower2a »

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/11/28/forget-2012-long-term-demographic-trends-favorable-to-republicans.html

I've read several of his articles and Nate Silver could probably tear him to shreads but he's forgetting that those in their early 20s in 2008 (like me) will still likely vote Democratic even at later ages. The idea that young Obama voters are poised to start going to church and bible thumping is backed up by zero facts.

Michael Medved has got rocks.

He ignores that the voters born in the 1980s and early 1990s are already much more liberal than older generations on economics and social issues. They are fleeing the Religious Right, one of the most reliable constituencies for the GOP since the early 1980s. They are heavily in debt for student loans and are underearning for their abilities -- both tendencies tending to push people to vote for the more left-wing politicians. Their idea of a Republican President is the awful George W. Bush. Barack Obama is by every non-ideological criterion a far-better President.

As voters age they increasingly identify with institutions, but what institutions will they trust? Giant corporations that underpay them and offer no security? Predatory lenders? The Religious Right? It is more likely that they will identify with the political causes that they know in youth. Significantly some of  the young volunteers for Obama are likely to grow into political careers -- and the vast majority of them will be elected as Democrats. The McCain and Romney campaigns did little to attract youth. When people's buddies start running for elective office, guess how people are going to vote.

Republicans need to ask themselves what they have to offer younger voters. Enrichment and pampering of elites is one of the most indirect and inefficient means of creating widespread prosperity. Educated rationalists have little use for the superstitious pablum that the Republicans offer to the Religious Right.  

  
Thats the problem Generation Yers think of George W. Bush as an example of  Republican Governance and the Republican name is tarred because of that. Obama is non-idealogical? Makes me smirk that statement.

Did I say that he was non-ideological? Ronald Reagan was ideological -- and effective. Barack Obama is about as left-of-center as Reagan was right-of-center and similarly effective.  

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Sure, I would like to underpay for everything that I get, but I know that if everyone underpays at a nice restaurant, either that restaurant isn't going to stay nice or it isn't going to stay in business. Underpay workers, and employers get a high turnover of workers and get stuck with not-so-good ones. The work ethic succeeds because people get something out of it -- that is, a good life. People get lazy in a sweatshop.  

Predatory lending is a consequence of people being underpaid and overworked. When people get honest pay for dedicated and effective work they can pay as they go or they can save for their dreams. When they get underpaid they end up making compromises of quality by paying too much for schlock -- like ten-year-old used cars. Don;t let me go into a spiel about student loans for questionable education.

Make no mistake -- the prospects for a young adult are much less favorable than they were in perhaps the 1950s. Sure, the technology was primitive by modern standards, and one paid full retail and thus couldn't fill a living space with schlock. But just think of something that people had in those days -- savings accounts. Try building one of those while being deeply in hock.
    
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Conservatism succeeds because people have something to protect (like savings accounts, bonds, and insurance policies) from inflation. Small-scale creditors tend slightly right. People who find themselves in debt want expansive monetary policy that trivializes debt and expansive fiscal policy that creates opportunities for paid work at higher wages. Debtors tend Left. Large-scale creditors tend very far to the Right. We have a huge number of struggling debtors (thank you, "Ownership Society" of Dubya) to the left of center and a comparatively few big creditors. Is it any wonder that we have so much political polarization?    
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #17 on: December 06, 2012, 03:15:30 pm »

What else do you think of someone who defaults on a contract and blames you for it being faulty? i.e. giving you loans so you can work but not giving you a proper job and then comes to bleed your radish?

Nonsense. Student loans are contracts taken out to purchase an education. Whatever expectations the student has are irrelevant to the contract. If I play the ponies and my horse breaks a leg in the race, my bookie isn't an ass if he wants his money.
Lending out money that one has no intention of being paid back in order to simply gain a property interest in that person is not a simple gamble. It is predatory lending and people are not being greedy and/or dishonest in believing in such sentiment....or at least less so than the people they feel wronged by. 

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #18 on: December 06, 2012, 04:22:01 pm »

What else do you think of someone who defaults on a contract and blames you for it being faulty? i.e. giving you loans so you can work but not giving you a proper job and then comes to bleed your radish?

Nonsense. Student loans are contracts taken out to purchase an education. Whatever expectations the student has are irrelevant to the contract. If I play the ponies and my horse breaks a leg in the race, my bookie isn't an ass if he wants his money.
Lending out money that one has no intention of being paid back in order to simply gain a property interest in that person is not a simple gamble. It is predatory lending and people are not being greedy and/or dishonest in believing in such sentiment....or at least less so than the people they feel wronged by. 



Predatory lending my butt. College prices, major-salaries are all readily available.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #19 on: December 06, 2012, 08:50:29 pm »

What else do you think of someone who defaults on a contract and blames you for it being faulty? i.e. giving you loans so you can work but not giving you a proper job and then comes to bleed your radish?

Nonsense. Student loans are contracts taken out to purchase an education. Whatever expectations the student has are irrelevant to the contract. If I play the ponies and my horse breaks a leg in the race, my bookie isn't an ass if he wants his money.
Lending out money that one has no intention of being paid back in order to simply gain a property interest in that person is not a simple gamble. It is predatory lending and people are not being greedy and/or dishonest in believing in such sentiment....or at least less so than the people they feel wronged by. 



Predatory lending my butt. College prices, major-salaries are all readily available.
That's not everything. Unemployment rates? Underemployment rates? Sure for a certain major the salary might be 50,000, but what if there was a 7-9% unemployment rate after a year?  Is it hard to dig that up? And different majors have different salaries according to different people. Some say that Poli Sci and Econ are good degrees while some say you might as well have a degree in Art History.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: December 18, 2012, 12:13:22 pm »
« Edited: December 18, 2012, 01:59:52 pm by pbrower2a »

Definitely not the Wolverine State (Michigan):

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I suspect that same-sex marriage and legalization of marijuana are far more popular in Michigan now than is the tough new anti-abortion law in Michigan.  
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