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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Dalla Piccola, Apocrypha)
  2012 with no financial crisis
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Author Topic: 2012 with no financial crisis  (Read 597 times)
Blackacre
Spenstar3D
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« on: February 08, 2013, 05:55:40 pm »

See "2008 with no financial crisis". Let's assume that Obama wins in 2008 anyway, 303-235 (he doesn't win that EV in Nebraska, or Indiana, or NC, or Florida, but wins everything else) and the makeup of the 111th Congress is the same. Aside from the economy, (which remains good) most events continue the way they did in real life: Bin Laden dead, we get out of Iraq, drones, Obamacare, etc. How would 2012 have looked?

Whould Romney still have gotten the nod? Would the Tea Party and Occupy have gotten so big? And what would that election have looked like?
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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2013, 06:02:19 pm »

The tea party might have gotten even bigger bc obama would have gotten more social programs done.  Romney would have not gotten the nomination, most likely would have gone to santorum and this would have been the map
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Siloch
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« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2013, 06:34:36 pm »




My map takes into account how polarized the country is, no matter how amazing Obama is he won't be winning a state like Georgia with it's current demographics.
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Cryptic
Shadowlord88
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« Reply #3 on: February 16, 2013, 12:21:10 pm »
« Edited: February 16, 2013, 12:22:53 pm by Shadowlord88 »



The Republican field was pretty lackluster in real life and I doubt it'll be any better in a world where no economic crisis is weighting down Obama.  Without the economy as an issue to run on, the Republicans would only be able to campaign on opposition to Obama's polices, which, while rallying the base, would probably not rally many moderates and independents to their cause. I could see Obama winning very decisively by an even larger margin than he won real life '08.

On the issue of Georgia, the margin between Obama and Romney in that state was closer than either Missouri or Arizona in real life '12, so I wouldn't completely discount the possibility of it going to Obama in this scenario. It would be a tough fight, but not impossible. 
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