Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[Tender Branson]

Just watched Stronach on Puls4. Car crash. Complete wreck. Write off.

Hopefully they end up with just 5-6% or so.

Will be very interesting to see what the polls are like for this weekend. I wonder whether we will see them slipping into the possibility of not being in Parliament. And where will their vote go? ÖVP? FPÖ? Neos?

The next polls will show it.

I think most of his voters would go to the FPÖ, followed by BZÖ and ÖVP.

NEOS not so much, because TS voters tend to be older - while NEOS attracts more urban/younger voters.

[Tender Branson]

So, I filled out my absentee ballot and voted for the Greens !

I also awarded 3 preference votes to Green candidates on the electoral district, state and federal level, so they can be moved upwards on the lists:

FEDERAL:

Lara Köck



STATE:

Elisabeth Piller



DISTRICT:

Fidelius Krammel

[ERvND]

Turns out that buying parliamentary status - and, thereby, access to all those TV debates and events - was actually a big mistake by Stronach. He'd rather remained silent...

Soon we'll see to what extent his abysmal performance hurts him. If it does, this will be a bad thing, as the protest vote will revert back to the FPÖ. 

[Tender Branson]

Turns out that buying parliamentary status - and, thereby, access to all those TV debates and events - was actually a big mistake by Stronach. He'd rather remained silent...

It will be interesting to see how his death penalty comments and his once-again-excentric debate performance change things.

It helps Stronach that the debate was after primetime between 10pm and 11.30pm - and the audience was only 100.000 watchers then, compared with the 800.000 watchers in the prime-time ORF debates.

Also, Stronach's voters are protest voters and therefore are likely to stick with him, no matter what he says.

...

Soon we'll see to what extent his abysmal performance hurts him. If it does, this will be a bad thing, as the protest vote will revert back to the FPÖ. 

Well, in the long term, this would have been the case anyway: Stronach is already past 80. How long do we think will he live ? After his death, his voters would go back to the FPÖ anyway, just as the BZÖ voters would some sort of, if they don't manage to get into parliament again in 3 weeks. If, god forbid, Stronach dies in the next legislative term, then I have serious doubts if the TS can get above 4% again in the 2018 elections. It really depends if the TS of the future is cohesive and able to change and of course it depends if Stronach provides a multi-million € fund for the party after his death, so they can still be competetive in the next state and federal elections up to 2018.

[peterould]

Also, Stronach's voters are protest voters and therefore are likely to stick with him, no matter what he says.

Not totally convinced by this argument. Let's see what the polls say this weekend!

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Which is an interesting idea, because what you're suggesting is that the FPÖ vote, if it brings together the right wing factions, could be in the region of 30%. That's enough to make Strache Chancellor.

[Tender Branson]

Also, Stronach's voters are protest voters and therefore are likely to stick with him, no matter what he says.

Not totally convinced by this argument. Let's see what the polls say this weekend!

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Which is an interesting idea, because what you're suggesting is that the FPÖ vote, if it brings together the right wing factions, could be in the region of 30%. That's enough to make Strache Chancellor.

Only theoretically. The other parties would just form a coalition without him in 2018.

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow 8.15pm, one of the best debates this year will take place on ORF:

* Strache (FPÖ) vs. Stronach (Team Stronach)

...

The excentric old billionaire with his Styrian-English one-liners he keeps repating in every debate will meet the master of rhetoric populism !



Potential zingers from Stronach:

"Du hast ja no nie Löhne bezahlt !" (You have never paid any wages !)

"Du bist auch nur so ein Funktionär !" (You are just another one of these party people !)

"Du verstehst nix von der Wirtschaft !" (You know nothing about the economy !)

[Tender Branson]

As you probably know, only citizens of voting-age (16+) are eligible to vote in Austria.

Therefore the NGO "SOS Mitmensch" will hold a "Pass Egal Wahl" ("Passport doesn't matter election") on Sept. 24

It will allow immigrants with no Austrian citizenship to vote in a mock parliamentary election.

SOS Mitmensch campaigns for the right of foreigners, many of whom are living in Austria for decades already, to vote.



The even printed and put out their own posters:









http://www.sosmitmensch.at/site/home/article/646.html

[Tender Branson]

I think it should be a no-brainer for example that persons BORN already in Austria and are still here after 16 or more years should be given the right to vote.

Like my Bosnian-Serb co-worker, who was also born here already, but who still has the Bosnian citizenship for inheritance related reasons (some countries have very restrictive inheritance laws, such as Bosnia: My co-workers parents still have a house etc. in Bosnia and once they die, my co-worker could inherit their homes in Bosnia and their other stuff, because he still has the Bosnian citizenship. Yet if he were to take the Austrian citizenship, the law would prohibit inheritances).

If this is changed (which SPÖVP have said they won't), we can also discuss about extending the suffrage to non-citizens who have lived here for at least 5-10 years and have a job.

[Tender Branson]

The daily dose of election parody:



"Now ! Death Penalty. Frank."



"Love thy neighbour. For me, that's ein (an) Austrian !"



"With a steady hand, into your pocket. SPÖ."



"Dr. Michael Spindelegger. Welcome to the Future."



"One man, one election, one percent. Josef Bucher: One man and nobody else is fighting for whatever."



"Deport thy neighbour. For me, that are criminals."

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

If this is changed (which SPÖVP have said they won't), we can also discuss about extending the suffrage to non-citizens who have lived here for at least 5-10 years and have a job.

People who've lived in Austria for 10 years are able to become citizens, no? If they choose not to, that's their choice. If they want the rights of a citizen they should become citizens. Especially as I suspect that many young Austrians to immigrant parents who do not become citizens do so because they don't want to do certain duties as citizens. (Military service)     

[Tender Branson]

If this is changed (which SPÖVP have said they won't), we can also discuss about extending the suffrage to non-citizens who have lived here for at least 5-10 years and have a job.

People who've lived in Austria for 10 years are able to become citizens, no? If they choose not to, that's their choice. If they want the rights of a citizen they should become citizens. Especially as I suspect that many young Austrians to immigrant parents who do not become citizens do so because they don't want to do certain duties as citizens. (Military service)    

For regular foreigners 10 years, yes.

But there's also the possibility after 6 years (the law was amended this summer because of Sebastian Kurz's proposal).

People who apply after 6 years need to pass a German-test, with skills that is equivilant to 12th grade high school exams of a foreign language.

People also need to be currently employed full-time and need to have worked in at least 3 of the past 6 years.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So as I suspected there's nothing stopping second generation immigrants from becoming citizens. Then I don't see the problem. You want to vote, become a citizen.
People can't both have the cake and eat it.   

[Franknburger]

So as I suspected there's nothing stopping second generation immigrants from becoming citizens. Then I don't see the problem. You want to vote, become a citizen.
People can't both have the cake and eat it.   

The real problem seems to be that Austria (as Germany) does not accept dual citizenship, hence the inheritance problem. This is pretty absurd. One of my former co-workers had three citizenships - German (from his father), Swiss (from his mother), and US (as he was born there). He worked for some time on EU projects (EU citizenship required), before entering the US Diplomatic Corps. Nobody cared, because all his three citizenships were deemed "acceptable".
A friend (Danish mother, German father) just told me a few weeks ago that his mother could not take over her parents' house in Denmark (though he did not go into details, so I don't know which legal issues were behind it). In any case, with Europe growing together, cross-border marriages will become more and more common, and we need to adapt citizenship regulation accordingly.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So as I suspected there's nothing stopping second generation immigrants from becoming citizens. Then I don't see the problem. You want to vote, become a citizen.
People can't both have the cake and eat it.   

The real problem seems to be that Austria (as Germany) does not accept dual citizenship, hence the inheritance problem. This is pretty absurd. One of my former co-workers had three citizenships - German (from his father), Swiss (from his mother), and US (as he was born there). He worked for some time on EU projects (EU citizenship required), before entering the US Diplomatic Corps. Nobody cared, because all his three citizenships were deemed "acceptable".
A friend (Danish mother, German father) just told me a few weeks ago that his mother could not take over her parents' house in Denmark (though he did not go into details, so I don't know which legal issues were behind it). In any case, with Europe growing together, cross-border marriages will become more and more common, and we need to adapt citizenship regulation accordingly.

That on the other hand is an actual problem, I agree. I would be 100% behind repealing Austrian laws prohibiting you from gaining Austrian citizenship if you're not willing to let go of your previous citizenship.

[Tender Branson]

Greens out with their 3rd and final poster wave (traditionally, parties use the frontrunners in the last waves):





3rd ÖVP wave:

[Tender Branson]

Angela Merkel endorses the Spindelegger ÖVP in a personal video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baBMVg8jbXk#t=01m18s

[Tender Branson]

In 1 hour, the 3rd and last poster wave from the FPÖ will be presented.

[Tender Branson]

3rd poster wave from the FPÖ:



"Because I believe in YOU. Out of love for Austria. FPÖ."



"Wages and pension have to pay off (or to be of high value) again."



"Integration is a duty. We don't want refusal."

[Tender Branson]

Forgot something:

On the right upper corner it says "FPÖ - The Social Homeland Party".

[peterould]

Forgot something:

On the right upper corner it says "FPÖ - The Social Homeland Party".

They're the best FPÖ posters so far. Clear punchy message rather than kissing grannies rubbish.

[Tender Branson]

The Strache (FPÖ) vs. Stronach debate tonight could set a new TV ratings record for an opposition debate.

Because of the comedy value ...

[peterould]

The Strache (FPÖ) vs. Stronach debate tonight could set a new TV ratings record for an opposition debate.

Because of the comedy value ...

We need some new polls to see how far the Stronach car crash has damaged the "Team"!

[Tender Branson]

Here you can watch all debates that have aired so far:

http://tvthek.orf.at/topics/Wahl%2013%3A%20TV-Konfrontationen

Also don't miss the FPÖ vs. Stronach debate tonight. It starts at 8:15pm local time and you can watch it by clicking the "LIVE" button on the link above. Choose "Konfrontation Strache/Stronach".

[Tender Branson]

It will also be interesting to see if the next polls show a NEOS rise because of the Haselsteiner entry.

Maybe they are at 3-4% soon.