Obama hits 60% in California

[Sbane]

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/maps/president/

It has been interesting watching the results come in and seeing Obama improve slowly but surely. He flipped Stanislaus into his column almost a week back and now Riverside is back in his column as well. Only Fresno, Nevada, Butte and Trinity counties seem to have flipped to Romney. And in Fresno and Nevada, the results could change. Especially in Fresno since they have a bunch of provisional ballots they still have to count. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up in Obama's column in the end.

[justfollowingtheelections]

It's amazing how strong the Democrats have become in California.  Also in New York.

[Skill and Chance]

This means a Democrat could now lose by 60/40 in the PV and still get 119 EV:

[Skill and Chance]

And here's an LBJ-level 60/40 Dem blowout based on this year's results.  The Republican gets 120 EV, which is basically symmetric.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

D'oh!  My prediction on the 2012 Prediction page takes a 1 pt hit. 

Cheese and crackers!  Can we get a dump from Bakersfield to get it 59.99?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

This means a Democrat could now lose by 60/40 in the PV and still get 119 EV:

Doubtful. That's the case with a direct swing, but at some point the Republican would hit a ceiling in the Republican states; thus, the final margin would come from winning most of the blue states.

[Sbane]

D'oh!  My prediction on the 2012 Prediction page takes a 1 pt hit. 

Cheese and crackers!  Can we get a dump from Bakersfield to get it 59.99?

Nope. There are still 200,000 provisional ballots to count in LA county so you need to take that 1 point hit. All the populous Republican counties like Placer, Shasta and El Dorado are basically all in. Kern has about 18,000 left and Tulare has 18,000 as well, but San Francisco has 26,000 and Santa Cruz has 41,000. Other blue counties like Contra Costa and Santa Clara have good amount of ballots left as well. But most importantly, about 2/3rds of the remaining vote are provisional ballots so Obama will likely stay above 60%.

[RI]

Riverside County flipped to Obama as well.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

D'oh!  My prediction on the 2012 Prediction page takes a 1 pt hit. 

Cheese and crackers!  Can we get a dump from Bakersfield to get it 59.99?

I feel your pain.  I got everything right as far as who got what except Florida, but I pretty consistently underestimated how polarized things would be with both Republicans and Democrats, so I ended up with only 38 of 56 points on the percentages, soon to be 37 once Dave updates the prediction results for California.  (I only missed one state by overestimating the winner's percentage, Illinois.)

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Looks like Texas and New Hampshire trended R now that Dave dumped the Cali votes in.

[Skill and Chance]

Looks like Texas and New Hampshire trended R now that Dave dumped the Cali votes in.

One of the interesting questions left is whether VA will still finish left of the nation when the counting is over.  Obama might just crack 51.1% nationally...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wasserman has counted more votes than Leip, and he has Obama at 59.9%.

[Sbane]

Wasserman has counted more votes than Leip, and he has Obama at 59.9%.

You do realize the Secretary of State of California is an even better source than Wasserman or Leip?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wasserman has counted more votes than Leip, and he has Obama at 59.9%.

You do realize the Secretary of State of California is an even better source than Wasserman or Leip?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'll trust whomever has more votes counted.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Wasserman has counted more votes than Leip, and he has Obama at 59.9%.

You do realize the Secretary of State of California is an even better source than Wasserman or Leip?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'll trust whomever has more votes counted.

I'll take my point back, thank you very much!  It would tie me for the overall lead. 

Side note, does Dave Leip send the prediction winners any sort of prize?  I'll take a $10 Applebee's gift card. 

[Sbane]

Wasserman has counted more votes than Leip, and he has Obama at 59.9%.

You do realize the Secretary of State of California is an even better source than Wasserman or Leip?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'll trust whomever has more votes counted.

Interesting. Where does he get his data from?

And for those hoping Obama stays below 60, don't forget the 200k provisional ballots in LA county.

[Ilya Gerner]

I believe Wasserman gets data from the counties, before SOS has a chance to update. 59.91% right now.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Who was that guy who predicted Romney will win California 50 to 48?

[Ilya Gerner]

San Diego just reported 9,292 new Obama votes, 5,973 for Romney. Obama at 60.01% in California.

Incidentally, it's almost certain that Obama will cross the 51% threshold in the national popular vote count.

[politicallefty]

I think it's more likely than not that Obama gets above 60% in the final tally. There are still some counties (mostly small) that haven't updated since election night that should add to this likelihood. I could easily be wrong though, especially since I don't how many ballots remain uncounted. It should also be interesting to see if Obama can get to a 3 million vote margin.

[danny]

Who was that guy who predicted Romney will win California 50 to 48?

See my signature below, it was Winfield.

[Sbane]

I think it's more likely than not that Obama gets above 60% in the final tally. There are still some counties (mostly small) that haven't updated since election night that should add to this likelihood. I could easily be wrong though, especially since I don't how many ballots remain uncounted. It should also be interesting to see if Obama can get to a 3 million vote margin.

Here you go! Still 200k provisional ballots left in LA County.

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/2012-elections/nov-general/pdf/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

[politicallefty]

Thanks, I hadn't seen that. That shows the last update in LA County being on 11/20, but they've reported quite a bit since then. I'm not sure what that means one way or the other. Based on what's remaining though, I feel a lot stronger in predicting that Obama will get above 60%. Though I didn't do the math, the vast majority of vote-by-mail alone come from four heavily Democratic counties (Contra Costa, Mendocino, Monterey, and Sonoma). The only counties that could possibly switch now are Fresno and Trinity and the end result should be very close. As for whether or not Obama can get to a 3 million margin the state, that should be close too.

All counties have to certify on December 4th, so we'll find out then.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama's strength in California was one of the more surprising results of the night. All the polls were showing him with leads half of the actual result.

[DINGO Joe]

LA will actually do their final update on Sunday, the clerk twitter didn't say how many, just that it's a smaller batch.  My guess is about 20,000.  Five counties did update on Friday that Wasserman didn't include in his update and Obama won those 19,000-9500.  Including LA, my best guess is that there are about 115,000 votes left to count, Obama will win those by a 2-1 margin and will come up about 10,000 votes short of a 3 million margin.

Wasserman is including write ins for counties that have provided them thus far, so that adjustment will be minimal, so it's about 95% likely that Obama will finish above 60%