Who will get a bloody nose in Iowa?

[TomC]

Seems like a lot of (Dem) Iowans decided to vote this year based on whom they thought was most electable. I expect Bayh to win that argument next time around, but it all depends on the dynamics and for Hillary, where she is on defense and foreign policy oissues, particularly middle east. Will she be the Dean or one of the appeasement Democratic senators that Dean railed on? I don't see that she'll be seen as real strong on defense as Kerry sometimes managed to pull off, but if there is a Dean-like liberal (Gore?) that goes overboard, she could be seen as a moderate on these issues. Her husband definitely was.

I expect Hillary to lose in Iowa, which will help her win New Hampshire decisively.

I expect Frist will do better than expected in Iowa, but I don't know if that means first. I expect Giuliani to begin to seriously fade after Iowa.