What's the explanation for Volusia? Obama carried that one easily four years ago.
It was actually fairly close in the past few elections. I think it is somewhat whiter than other counties as lets remember Kerry got over 40% of the white vote in Florida whereas Obama in 2012 did not. The biggest difference is Bush won the Latino vote in 2004 in Florida whereas Obama won them by almost 20 points, so that might be the best explanation. Also how close is it to the Space Coast as I know there was a lot of anger at Obama in that area.
I thought there might be anger, but Brevard County actually trended to Obama. I also doubt there are many people employed in NASA-related jobs in Volusia County. That said, the trend in Volusia was pretty small, enough to be just noise. In general, most of Florida moved against Obama, counterbalanced only by Obama's massive improvement in Dade County, presumably from doing far better with Cubans.
Generally speaking, Romney got the swings he needed to win Florida, except in Dade. On election night, as results came in, I was convinced Romney would win Florida until Dade County was so heavily reporting that it was clear there were no Romney-heavy parts of Hialeah that would tip it closer to the 2008 result.
Obama also performed rather exceptionally well in Orlando. Kissimee going from a Bush 04 county to a 60% Obama 2012 county is pretty significant. It's interesting that Flagler also swung more than expected, although it's a county Romney "should" have won with his national numbers.
