1888: Frederick Douglass vs. Grover Cleveland

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Given the real life results for Grover Cleveland, even in New England and the Plains states, I fail to see how Douglass wins any state besides Vermont.

Really.

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Here's my map:

370-31

Being REALLY generous to Douglass here.  After all, we're talking about a black man as a Presidential candidate.  IN 1888.

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361-40

Massachusetts?

Seriously?

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Massachusetts?

Seriously?

Yes - there's a long history of support for racial equality there.

Yes, and they would vote for a black man?  In 1888?

This is a state that was full of people who were barely okay with competing with Irish immigration, I doubt they would choose a black Republican over a reform minded white Democrat who ran on a platform many describe as it could've been written by the Republican Convention.

Supporting voting rights for a group doesn't mean one thinks about voting one for president.

[Mechaman]

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That is the 2004 to 2008 swing map. West Virginia would be one of five states where Obama actually did worse than Kerry, despite every non-racial factor suggesting a far better performance.

Uh dude, I'm not saying I agree with Oldiesfreak's map (in fact I think it's ridiculous) but this isn't good logic.  You're comparing elections that are 120 years apart.

But oh god, oh god, what he said is way stupider.

[Mechaman]

361-40

Massachusetts?

Seriously?

Yes - there's a long history of support for racial equality there.

Yes, and they would vote for a black man?  In 1888?

This is a state that was full of people who were barely okay with competing with Irish immigration, I doubt they would choose a black Republican over a reform minded white Democrat who ran on a platform many describe as it could've been written by the Republican Convention.

Supporting voting rights for a group doesn't mean one thinks about voting one for president.

Why do you bring up competition with immigrants? 
I don't any longer think MA would have voted for Douglass in 88 (I was being super generous like with your map), but it'd give him 3rd or 4th highest among all states. 

Admittedly, it wasn't a perfect analogy comparing the plight of immigrant laborers with former black slaves, but I belive it is relevant in establishing an idea of what society was like back then.  I do realize that in states like MA this would be kind of inaccurate, given that the nativists tended to be Republicans out of natural fact of Democrats being overwhelmingly white immigrant class (who were more likely to be anti-black (at least up North) due to nature of economically competing with black laborers) so I do admit that my premise was somewhat flawed.  Really though, I figure that the base Democratic vote in Mass plus Cleveland "mugwumps" plus the more racialist Republicans would deny Douglass the state.  I figured that only extremely hackish Republican states (like in the Plains) would hold for Douglass, plus Vermont, with votes being driven down by larger than average third party participation.