Home States generally tend to trend away from "their" candidate when he's on the ballot for the second time. CA trended D in 1972, GA trended R in 1980, CA trended D in 1984, AR trended R in 1996, TX trended D in 2004. The only exception in modern era has been Texas in 1992 (which is very surprising, if you consider Clinton's Southern appeal... did Bentsen make that much difference in 1988?).
As I said in another thread, Home States tend to trend away from their native son the second time he's on ballot. Delaware's swing in 2008 was pretty huge, so this is a logical reversion to the mean.
What I find really shocking is that Hawaii somehow found a way to trend dem again.
