at what point should dems hit the panic button in PA?
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  at what point should dems hit the panic button in PA?
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Author Topic: at what point should dems hit the panic button in PA?  (Read 1811 times)
freepcrusher
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« on: November 20, 2012, 09:20:26 AM »

the dems have done a good job of milking the vote in Philadelphia, but eventually they're going to hit a ceiling. I doubt the dems can get Bronxlike margins there. If PA is an RPVI state by 2016 not only is that a pain in the ass for dems but it increases the chances of Pat Tumor winning re-election.
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sg0508
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2012, 09:34:21 AM »

Why hit the panic button? Western PA has weakened for the democrats, but they still control Philly and the surrounding suburbs are becoming more democratic. 

As for Toomey, he'll be running in a presidential year next go-around so it will be far tougher for him than in 2010. Keep in mind that he almost blew that race too in a very strong GOP year with far lower minority turnout.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2012, 10:14:58 AM »

As long as Northeastern suburbs keep drifting towards the Democrats, I don't see what the Dems really have to worry about in PA. 
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dspNY
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2012, 11:32:49 AM »

What panic button? (unless Christie is the R nominee because he's perfect for PA and he's next door)

The Dems have a 1 million voter registration advantage in PA, and this state is not West Virginia
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2012, 12:09:48 PM »

We're fine in PA.
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pa2011
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« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2012, 11:05:55 PM »
« Edited: November 20, 2012, 11:35:23 PM by pa2011 »

If you look on a map of PA with recent election results, appears Dems are fine in PA for awhile. Seems actual city of Pittsburgh is a pretty strong firewall for Democrats in increasingly conservative Southwest PA.

So Allegheny County -- which Pittsburgh is in -- looks pretty set at producing just under 100,000 vote margin for Dems in presidential election years, even though Pittsburgh suburbs are pretty red now. It's been just about 100,000 vote D margin in 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012.  

That margin basically cancels out all the Republican-trending counties that surround Allegheny.

Likewise, seems Dem have a firewall with the smaller city of Erie in Northwest PA of about 20,000 vote advantage, (Bush kept it to 10,000 in 2004 but Obama got 25,000 margin in 2008). Regardless, that margin basically cancels out the Republican vote in the rest of Northwest PA.

That leaves Philadelphia to cancel out all the two dozen or so lightly populated hard R counties in central Pennsylvania. Usually pretty easy for Philly to do plus some in presidential election years. And think Philly like many cities has has finally stopped losing population, so probably pretty stable for now in that regard.

That leaves  Philadelphia suburbs and Northeast Pa. Imagine trends in Philadelphia burbs will continue to favor D's, though agree a candidate like Christie could run strong. Northeast PA could keep trending away from Democrats to some extent, but some of that may be balanced out by a growing Hispanic population in cities such as Reading and Scranton. Plus, I think some New Yorkers are choosing to retire in the Pocono Mountains, so that should also help Democrats in the long-term.
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pa2011
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« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2012, 11:15:40 PM »

But if  there ever were a big drop off in African-American interest/turnout, obviously my above scenerio goes out the window.  Allegheny County becomes a pure toss up, and Philly would be unable to counteract the Republican vote in central Pa.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2012, 12:41:56 AM »

Probably in 2016 or 2020.  If I were a Republican strategist, I'd shift all my NH resources into PA unless the nominee is a libertarian icon.   
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2012, 07:26:40 AM »

Barring a reverse 2008, I don't see Pennsylvania becoming a real toss-up. The southwest bleeding exists, but to some extent is just Obama; Casey won several counties in the southwest against a coal executive from the area, and Kathleen Kane, a Scranton liberal, won everything southwest of Allegheny (and no, NEPA is not trending Republican. Did you see how Lackawanna and Luzerne trended this year?). The southeast, on the other hand, could see a shift. Romney made big gains here, and Christie could pull even more.
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opebo
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« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2012, 01:32:02 PM »

A fascinating question for sure, and along with Wisconsin and maybe later on Michigan, the big hope for the GOP.  It is a pretty poor hope though, obviously.

What would 'hitting the panic button' entail anyway?  A new strategy in PA?  Or focusing more elsewhere (I guess that could only be Florida).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2012, 10:32:13 PM »

Pennsylvania is close to being the tipping-point state in Presidential elections, being just slightly more D than Colorado.  Should Colorado drift more D, the Pennsylvania becomes the tipping-point state.

Panic? If a Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania does not win Pennsylvania and does not compensate with several states going from R to D (let us say some of the Clinton-but-not-Obama states going back to Democratic norms)  then the Republicans win that Presidential election. 
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #11 on: December 01, 2012, 03:02:15 PM »

With PA being so close in 2012 after mostly being ignored I think the GOP will certainly put it on their list of competitive states for 2016 but they better get in early and spend a lot of time and money registering voters and building an organization. They cant just throw up a bunch of ads in October. And if the GOP does spend the time and resources, then yes the Dems will have to put some resources in to protect the state. Not panic but prudent.
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Person Man
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« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2012, 12:27:24 PM »

Isn't Pennsylvania already at the tipping point after the provisional and absentee votes are or have gotten counted?  ...and we pretty much know that Dems can and must do a lot better in Florida and movement in these states seem so slow that it seems that we can probably keep up with it at this rate.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #13 on: December 03, 2012, 03:31:45 AM »

A fascinating question for sure, and along with Wisconsin and maybe later on Michigan, the big hope for the GOP.  It is a pretty poor hope though, obviously.

What would 'hitting the panic button' entail anyway?  A new strategy in PA?  Or focusing more elsewhere (I guess that could only be Florida).

How about Minnesota?
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Devils30
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« Reply #14 on: December 03, 2012, 09:01:26 PM »

Tough to see PA going red if Hillary is the nominee in 2016 though. Likely trends back Dem a few points if this happens.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: December 05, 2012, 04:32:53 AM »

Barack Obama is a horrible fit for Appalachia. He is a cosmopolitan, exotic egghead, and such does badly in the Appalachians and Ozarks. Just remember that he got clobbered in four states (Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia) twice in states that Clinton won twice, and how badly he did in southern Missouri. He is the definitive urban pol who doesn't relate well to isolated rural areas.
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Beezer
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« Reply #16 on: December 05, 2012, 08:01:44 AM »

People who cling to guns and religion just don't seem to be able to relate to him.
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